Ridiculous Article on ESPN
I recently came across an NBA article by Marc Stein on espn.com that discusses MVP candidates now that the season is approaching the halfway mark. Well, in the article, Stein states his MVP-voting philosophy, which I find to be very misguided and all too common among his analytical counterparts on the baseball side.
Regular readers know that team success is always the foundation of our MVP deliberations, with at least 50 W's required to crack the conversation. (Unless you play in the modern-day East, which means you'd probably need at least 55 wins and a few of those unforgettable walk-off triples that Arenas keeps giving us.)
It's apparent that there's a great deal of confusion or disagreement about the definition of Most Valuable Player. Looking at nothing but the term itself, I would presume it's the most valuable player in the game. And value, I guess, is how much of a player's output affects his team's chances at success, because what could be more valuable than impacting your team's chances at success? So, to me, it seems rather fair to suggest that "most valuable" should be synonymous with "best."
It seems that Stein believes that a player is only valuable if his team is among the game's best. But what if one player provides much more value (i.e. production) relative to other individual players? By definition, isn't he still providing the most value, regardless of how productive his teammates are?
One counterargument is that certain players affect team success in more indirect, intangible ways, thus getting the most out of those around them. However, how can this even begin to be quantified? I guess the voters could conduct some interviews of other players to gauge who affects whom and to what extent. But even if that were done, how much could we trust the results? Also, in a game such as baseball (or even basketball, probably), I doubt these intangibles would help produce enough -- be it runs in baseball or points in basketball -- to close the gap between individual production, which is measured in a far more sophisicated, accurate manner. Furthermore, in basketball, the affect one player has on others while on the court can be determined with a reasonable degree of accuracy.
Players should not be disqualified from the MVP-voting process simply because of their team's futility. If a huge outlier such as Barry Bonds circa 2001-2004 were denied MVP consideration simply because of his teammates' poor production, that would be a gross injustice, for he easily provided the most value during each of those seasons.
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21 comments
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Nash
Baseketball's stats have nothing to do with the amount of attempts you have. You could easily have 50 points and hog the ball selfishly and have your team lose. At the end of the day it's about winning.
When looking at an MVP I generally like to look at who adds the most wins to a team if he had not been there either to injury or something else. Sports like hockey and basketball have less to do with stats then baseball as it's basically the same role defined for most which is either to be a good hitter or good pitcher (or fielder).
by achengy on Jan 23, 2007 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re:
My argument is that Stein unfairly excludes other players from being analyzed in such a way simply on the basis of his team's won-lost record.
by mark w on Jan 23, 2007 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair argument
I myself like players who are the reason why their team wins and have the stats to back it up. I hate it when a Yankees player is always considered for MVP year in and year out.
by achengy on Jan 23, 2007 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
So, it's likely that the most valuable player in the NBA really is Kobe, Steve, or Dirk, but that might not be the case. It's Stein's responsibility to not overlook anyone.
by mark w on Jan 23, 2007 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Post-Season MVP awards...
i guess it's easier to judge a player's contributions to his team based on a smaller sample size.
It also seems that past prestige is ignored for postseason awards.
Name recognition is (i believe) a huge factor in regular-season award voting.
by easyrichboy on Jan 23, 2007 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm...
Also, a postseason series offers such a small sample size that luck plays such a larger role. In a short series, any player can perform well beyond his normal level of production. Pat Borders, the 1992 World Series MVP, is a great example.
by mark w on Jan 23, 2007 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
true
But just how good of a regular season does a 'no-name' player need in order to win MVP?
Even when A-Rod was MVP on a crappy Rangers team he was still massively hyped as a superstar.
In fact, the argument could be made that a great player on a crappy team actually stands out more than that same player on a championship team.
And ya can't go and throw 'luck' into the bargain. This is a stat-heavy sport, remember?
Words like 'luck', 'grit' and 'clubhouse presence' are disconcerting to me cuz i can't quantify 'em.
by easyrichboy on Jan 23, 2007 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Luck
by mark w on Jan 23, 2007 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No-name
For example, how many people clung onto the view that Chris Carpenter 2004 season was a fluke? I remember a friend of mine was laughed at for drafting him in the 8th round of a 12-team draft during the 2005 season.
And that makes sense, because Carpenter is the exception. More often than not, a player will regress back to his previous level of play.
by mark w on Jan 23, 2007 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
very true
pat still deserved the 1992 WS MVP in that his performance was amazing, it is just that his performance there didn't really prove anything about his overall skills as a player. so long as people don't take it out of proportion (e.g. decide on the hall of fame based on a postseason series MVP), I think it is a cool thing.
obviously, performance in that small a sample size can be an outlier, but I'm not sure that "luck" is exactly the right word. I forget who, but someone refers to something like that as a "non-predictive event," which I think is more accurate. Pat Borders wasn't swinging with his eyes closed or anything (in which case it really would've been luck!), he was just hitting, temporarily, far beyond his usual ability.
It is like (and this is terrible for me to remember) the So Taguchi homer off Billy Wagner last year in the NLCS - it wasn't "luck" exactly, So saw it and hit it perfectly, if there was any luck inolved, I guess it was that he happened to perform well in that situation. But just using "luck" seems to take away from the fact that So or Pat Borders had the capacity to perform at that level (at least temporarily), while someone else (me for example!) would not. Of course, then there is David Eckstein, who seems to have won the WS MVP because Craig Monroe slipped and fell down.
I hope this isn't too philosophical/abstract for the blog.
by hugo on Jan 23, 2007 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Luck
But you're right. It's pretty much just a player outperforming his standard level of play for long enough to win the award, and rightfully so. But it doesn't tell us anything about his true ability.
by mark w on Jan 23, 2007 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
for sure
but that can be true over a full season too, I don't remember exactly, but I did a napkin calculation in college that showed that the difference between a .275 ("average") and .300 ("excellent") hitter over a full MLB season can be something like 12 seeing eye singles, bloops, charitable scorekeeping, etc. so, lots of true luck involved, then (unlike So T hitting the dinger!).
Of course, no amount of luck could've made me seem like anything but a High School SS trying to play college...
by hugo on Jan 23, 2007 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Season
As for your college ball, you probably had some good stretches of play relative to your baseline performance. That'd be hard to explain to girls you're trying to pick up though (hey, baby, I'm hitting .210 this week. Relative to my baseline level of performance, that's a .030 increase!). Yeah I hope you chose a different route. =)
by mark w on Jan 23, 2007 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
haha
of course, I was always able to talk up with pride the most empty of all stats, the good old stolen base total. Didn't have the benefit of sabermetrics at the time, but stealing a bag is a lot of fun.
by hugo on Jan 23, 2007 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Luck
Did you catch that Ricky Williams interview on the subject? Funny stuff.
by easyrichboy on Jan 23, 2007 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
haha no, I missed it
by mark w on Jan 23, 2007 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
mark, your post
or, if Howard were the true MVP, maybe he could've aligned the divisions so that the Phillies were in the Central, since philadelphia had a better record(!) than St. Louis.
Unbelievable.
by hugo on Jan 23, 2007 8:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't be surprised if it was Griffin, haha
As for Howard vs. Pujols, I'd actually have to side with Pujols on this one. Bill James once argued that a player who truly excels in one or two categories will be garnered with more accolades than a superior, though more well-rounded player. Home runs and RBI, in particular, seem to impress voters.
by mark w on Jan 23, 2007 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
Cliche to say, but Pujols is truly on a different level.
by hugo on Jan 23, 2007 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To clarify "best"
One thing that needs to be taken into account more often, I think, is value relative to one's position. Is Joe Mauer more valuable to his team than Jermaine Dye is to his? Dye put up the better overall numbers, but Mauer's production would be harder to replace. I think a compelling argument could be made for either player in this example, which shows how difficult the voting process can be at times.
One thing is for sure, though, and it's that the voters dropped the ball when they made Justin Morneau MVP =)
by mark w on Jan 23, 2007 8:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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