Assessing the Jays Financial Situation

by achengy on Nov 15, 2007 7:00 PM EST in News

From the great site, Cot's Baseball Contracts we should analyze the Jays finances. The Blue Jays have a unique system with their revenue based on the Canadian dollar and the exchange rate has played a huge factor in their financial situation in the past.

The Blue Jays should be flush with more finances despite an increasing payroll. Let's take a look so far with the contracts we have in 2008:

CF - Vernon Wells $0.5M + $8.5 M
RF - Alexis Rios ?? (Arbitration)
LF - Matt Stairs $2.25 M/Reed Johnson (??)/ Adam Lind (~300K)
3B - Troy Glaus $12.75 M
SS - John McDonald $1.9 M
2B - Aaron Hill (??)
1B - Lyle Overbay $5.8 M
DH - Frank Thomas $8 M
C - Gregg Zaun $3.75 M
Bench:
Curtis Thigpen (~300k)
Russ Adams (~400k)
?? - likely to be filled
SP1 - Roy Halladay $10 M
SP2 - AJ Burnett $12 M
SP3 - Dustin McGowan (~300k)
SP4 - Shaun Marcum (~400k)
SP5 - Jesse Litsch (~300k)/ Gustavo Chacin (~400k)
CL - BJ Ryan $10 M
RP - Casey Janssen (~400k)
RP - Scott Downs (??)
RP - Jeremy Accardo (~400k)
RP - Jason Frasor (??)
RP - Brian Tallet (~400k)

There is a lot of guesswork involved when trying to predict the salaries of players under the team's control.

A few big cases for arbitration:
Reed Johnson - IF it is offered I think they will match it at $3.075 M

Alex Rios - I think he can get $4-5 M depending on who they can use as comps. Hint to Jays management: get this guy signed long term. I'll say $4 M here.

Scott Downs - I'm thinking between $2-3 M to keep his services. Considering the market, Downs could fetch 3 years/$15 million for his services once he hits free agency in 2009. I'll say 2.5 M.

Frasor - Arbitration eligible, I think he fits in the $1-1.5 M range. I'll say $1.25 M

Aaron Hill - Not sure but if he ends up being considered a Super 2 he may get around 800K.

Approximate Total:
With Sparky: $90.7 M
Without Sparky: $87.6 M
Last Year's Salary: $81.9 M
Last Year's Exchange Rate: 86 cents Canadian/US Dollar
Last Year's Salary in Canadian: $95.2 M
Current Salary in Canadian:
With Sparky: $87.2 Million
W/O Sparky: $84.2 Million

Depending on whether we choose to retain our lead off man. We CAN make one significant signing this off-season or do what we did last year and bring guys in as role players.

What would you do with the extra money?
There are plenty of things the Jays management can do. They can sign a catcher to have a platoon, Alexei Ramirez looks like an interesting player at SS, or how about trading AJ Burnett for Tejada and signing another pitcher?

All speculation but it's fun to do. Hopefully the Jays don't go quietly...

0 recs | Comment 13 comments

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Comments

I would try to move Campbell to short

I know that doesn't cost any money, but if he can play short he has a way better chance of making the club than if he stays at second, since he won't be blocked by Hill any more.
Bench probably won't be Thigpen, but I don't think the backup catcher they sign will be a platoon player either. After this year our catching situation might be Diaz/Thigpen, so you wouldn't want to give the backup more than a one year deal, and we definitely don't want to trade for one.
Another option is to keep a war chest for midseason moves, but you risk running into the situation where if you'd spent the money instead of saving it, you'd be in a position where you'd want to add in midseason instead of selling.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Nov 15, 2007 11:33 PM EST 0 recs

Zaun does have a vesting option

Without a platoon he will definitely get it. I do like Diaz/Thigpen for the future but we have to see how they develop at the major league level.

Campbell is a long way away and he's still considered to be a utility type player.

Allan's World

by achengy on Nov 16, 2007 12:22 AM EST up 0 recs

I thought his time on the DL this year

made it impossible for his option to vest. Wasn't it based only on combined plate appearances or games between the two years? (Unlike Thomas's.)

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Nov 16, 2007 2:39 PM EST up 0 recs

Hmm forgot about his DL stint

You are right it makes it almost impossible for him to get that option. He needs to play in 160 games this season in order to activate that option.

Allan's World

by achengy on Nov 16, 2007 8:17 PM EST up 0 recs

Maybe hope for a bargain

on Jason Kendall...

He is probably one of the steadiest catchers in the last decade (with a few notable exceptions) and is generally a great situational hitter.

However, he is coming off of a crappy year... he showed some signs of rbounding after being dealt to the cubs.

My thinking is that he is up for a bargain contract to reprove his worth... if he doesn't pan out, he is a great backup behind Zaun.

by rontal on Nov 16, 2007 12:02 AM EST 0 recs

We just claimed Cory Haerther (OF) from the Cards

on waivers. http://padres.scout.com/a.z?s=315&p=2&c=702580

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Nov 17, 2007 4:38 AM EST 0 recs

pretty good signing

He's a lefty bat who has played outfield and third base in his minor-league career (although lately only outfield) and he has already pretty-much passed the double A test with some good work there. The only problem is that he missed most of last season with a wrist injury that eventually necessitated hamate-bone surgery. Hopefully that won't sap his power, which is a substantial part of his game. His career minor league numbers are .303/.363/474. He's 24 so he's not young but not old, and only the injury stopped him from seeing AAA last season. if his power returns, he could definitely be a contributor, and the Jays can use all the young position players they can get. too bad it looks like his days at 3rd are over.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Nov 17, 2007 9:53 AM EST up 0 recs

Another 40-man spot taken

The Jays have been pretty active on the waiver front. We might lose some guys.

Allan's World

by achengy on Nov 17, 2007 7:37 PM EST up 0 recs

I think

we already cut Griffin and Luna, so that frees up some room

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Nov 17, 2007 8:53 PM EST up 0 recs

the Jays financial situation is a little awkward

because they are locked up at most positions with expensive but reasonable deals for slightly above average production (generally speaking). It doesn't give them a lot of freedom to move around. I would consider moving Burnett if the payoff was something special, and since it seems clear that Glaus probably won't be suspended, the Jays might find a taker for him. The Dodgers might be a good fit for Glaus and they have lots of young talent that they undervalue. The Angels have something of a middle-infield logjam so they might be willing to give up a couple of talented players for Glaus too. Bobby Crosby might be a low-risk move by the Jays if the A's are looking to rid themselves of his salary.

One thing I think would help would be adding a super-utility type guy who could provide some left-handed stick and power off the bench while backing up Glaus. A bench player with basestealing ability would be nice as well, since the Jays seem to pinch-run far more than any other A.L. team.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Nov 17, 2007 9:38 AM EST 0 recs

There was an MLB.com article about Colletti

being alarmed at what teams were asking for in trades. ie. Miguel Cabrera would apparently cost three or four prospects, and by prospects they mean young major-league ready players, some of whom have major league experience.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Nov 17, 2007 1:19 PM EST up 0 recs

interesting

so maybe we could get 1-2 such players for Glaus and a solid reliever? That deal could help the Jays as long as they could use the money they saved to get another 3rd baseman who could do a capable job. Glaus is above average for a third-baseman, but if his health issues mean he misses substantial time and someone like Hector Luna is the backup, that brings the production closer to average.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Nov 17, 2007 1:45 PM EST up 0 recs

I don't think we could get a 3B for that money

unless we swing some kind of 3-way deal where Glaus goes to the Dodgers, Cabrera comes to us, and something from us plus something from the Dodgers goes to Miami, and I don't see us having the parts to make that work, or being willing to part with them.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Nov 17, 2007 2:43 PM EST up 0 recs