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Around SBN: The Gift Of The 2003 Tigers

I Read the News Today Oh Boy: Sparrow Set Free; Eckstein Signed; Mitchell Report Released

Big day in the news...

First, the Jays declined to offer arbitration to Sparrow. It appears as though JP's earlier talk about the Jays offering Sparrow arbitration was just talk in order to prop up his trade value. Sparrow is now a free agent, and while he could technically be signed by the Jays at a lower cost, it is more likely he will (as he should) seek his fortunes elsewhere. While it would be just fine to bring Sparrow back, it's not really necessary to pay $3 million or more for an 8th or 9th starter, especially when the Jays have other folks who could probably perform just as well. The Jays tendered all their other arbitration-eligible players, including Sparky.

As Torgen broke in the diaries, the Jays inked David Eckstein to a 1 year, $4.5 contract. While Eckstein's skills and health appear to be in decline, as we've discussed before, he still gets on base relatively well and his offense is a big improvement over Mac (89 OPS+ career for Eckstein, 58 for Mac). Particularly significant is that Mac's career OPS against righhanders is .571, while Eck's is .706. While Eckstein's power is awful, his on-base skills are actually quite good for a SS (lifetime .351 OBP). That makes him a great 9 hitter in my mind, although he could also lead off (as it has been suggested that he will).

On the downside, Eckstein's defense was above-average until last season, where it was lousy. The question is whether that was a blip on the radar and/or caused by injuries or whether it is irreversible age-related decline. Chances are it's a combination of both, which brings up the next point - Eckstein hasn't been particularly healthy over the past few seasons, missing about 40 games each of the past two seasons. But with Scutaro and Macdonald, the Jays should have adequate cover. Starting Mac over Eckstein against lefties, particularly when the Jays have a groundballer on the mound, is probably not a bad idea.

One good thing about having Eckstein in the leadoff spot is that it might get Matt Stairs or Adam Lind more at-bats than he would otherwise have, since Gibbons won't feel compelled to start Sparky against righties just to have him lead off. The potential downside is that Gibbons might stick with Eckstein in situations in which he would pinch-hit Stairs for Mac.

On the whole, this seems like a good move. Having a SS who can hit only seems like it can help, since the Jays will still have Mac to provide defense and Scutaro to provide power. I thought Eckstein would cost much more. The key to how much this will help the Jays is how healthy Eckstein is and how that manifests itself on the defensive side of the ball - Eckstein was not a bad defensive SS until last season, despite having a lousy arm.

For example, J-Mac managed a .227 eqa in 2007 season, which was actually one of his better seasons with the bat (career .219) and was -13 BRAA. Defense-wise, he was 20 FRAA, but had never been as many as 8 FRAA in the past. His WARP3 was 4.3. Eckstein eqaed .275, (career .262), and was 8 BRAA. The catch is that he was -10 FRAA where he had been +14 in 2006. His WARP3 was only 3.8, lower than Mac's. The difference is that that was a low number for Eckstein, who had managed 7.3 and 5.5 in the previous 2 seasons. On the contrary, Mac was way above his norms, as he had never before finished with more than 1.8 WARP3. So if Eckstein can get his fielding even near his norms, he will be an upgrade. If he can't get his fielding in order, we still have Mac and Eckstein cost us nothing and involved no long-term commitment. At worst case, Eckstein should be worth about as many runs as Mac and it's more likely that he should be worth at least a couple of wins more. Although it's worth mentioning that the Twins paid less for a 1-year deal for Everett, who is a better fielder than either Mac or Eckstein and about as good a hitter as Mac.

Finally, the long-awaited report on steroids from George Mitchell is in . TO Blues has the scoop in the diaries, so check it out.

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Everett
It would've been nice if they signed Everett instead, though I'm cautiously optimistic about this signing.

by mark w on Dec 13, 2007 8:13 PM EST reply actions  

What were Mac's old and new numbers
for FRAA/9? Because he spent a lot of time as a defensive sub until this year (and for much of this year), so he would have had fewer chances to increase his FRAA than he did this time around.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Dec 13, 2007 8:28 PM EST reply actions  

that's a good point
According to his baseball prospectus card, last season was Mac's career high both for at-bats and for innings played as a SS. I don't know of a site that shows FRAA/9, but it appears that even accounting for the increase in playing time, Mac had by far his best season in the field. For example, with Cleveland, he had negative FRAA as a SS, so more playing time would (at least by averaging it out) only have lead to worse numbers. In 2006 with Toronto, he had 0 FRAA as a SS (in 90 games at the position as opposed to 102 in 2007), so more playing time wouldn't have really made a difference. 4 of his FRAA last season came as a third baseman.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 15, 2007 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's another question, then
What was his FRAA (or FRAA/9) by month? Because in '06 he faded down the stretch, but that didn't seem to be an issue this year.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Dec 15, 2007 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

that's a thought too
unfortunately, I don't know of a site that breaks it down that way. Since the defensive metrics need lots of data in order to achieve any accuracy (and even then are not as trustworthy as other types of stats), I'm not sure how useful that would be.

If Mac is susceptible to wearing down, using him, Eckstein, and Scutaro in situations in which they are most useful might be a way of keeping both he and Eckstein healthy and productive (relative to their averages), since both Eckstein and Mac are past their traditional primes and have had some injury issues.

By the way, Mac's comments on the Eckstein signing only made me like and root for him even more. A very impressive show of class.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 15, 2007 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

as a few of us have been saying
J.P. suggests that J-Mac may be the starter when groundballers are on the mound. The interesting thing about this is that out of our staff, Doc, A.J., McGowan, Janssen, and Litsch would be considered groundballers out of our prospective starters, since all of them get healthy groundball numbers. Out of the pen, Downs, Janssen, and League would be.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 15, 2007 7:16 PM EST reply actions  

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