Projections vs. Real Life
As part of looking back at the season that was, I wanted to compare what our players did to what they were projected to do before the season started. I am going to use the projections as printed in Baseball Prospectus 2008. We'll do this over a few posts over the next week or so.
Rod Barajas
PA R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB BA OB SA
Projected 217 23 11 0 8 29 18 36 1 .245 .316 .433
Actual 377 44 23 0 11 49 17 61 0 .249 .294 .410
So Rod played way more than BP figured he would. I agree with them that he's better suited to being a backup but such is life. His strikeout to walk rate was much worse than they figured. His batting average was just about spot on, but with his refusal to take walks his on base was much lower than they thought and he didn't hit home runs at the rate they thought he would so his slugging average was down. All in all they didn't think he'd have much of a season and he managed to be even worse than they though and yet he hit in the middle of our lineup.
Gregg Zaun
PA R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB BA OB SA
Projected 281 31 14 0 7 33 33 42 1 .251 .343 .402
Actual 288 29 12 0 6 30 38 38 2 .237 .340 .359
The crystal ball worked for Zaun, they were almost perfect on everything except batting average, it would have been nice if he hit a little higher and slugging average, which likely is mostly due to the batting average as he only hit one less homer and two less doubles than they projected.
Lyle Overbay
PA R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB BA OB SA
Projected 505 60 27 1 14 62 50 85 3 .265 .341 .423
Actual 544 74 32 2 15 69 74 116 1 .270 .358 .419
Now this one surprises me, Lyle beat or at least matched his projections in basically every category. I guess it was us that expected better of him. He did strikeout more then they figured, but he got on base much more often. I think the Jays would have been better off to bat him at the top of the order but it is hard to get over that preconceived notion that first basemen bat in the middle of the lineup.
Aaron Hill
PA R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB BA OB SA
Projected 593 66 33 3 11 63 40 79 5 .271 .325 .405
Actual 205 19 14 0 2 20 16 31 4 .263 .324 .361
Yeah totally unfair, BP had no idea that he'd get his brain rattled and he never got the chance to recover from a slow start. But is worth noting that he was having a bad season before he and Eck ran into each other. No slugging at all. It is hard to imagine that he would have gotten up to 11 home runs if he had played all year.
Marco Scutaro
PA R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB BA OB SA
Projected 364 42 16 2 7 36 36 51 3 .257 .334 .383
Actual 592 76 23 1 7 60 57 65 7 .267 .341 .356
I'm with them....he played way too much. He hit a little better than what was expected, he got on base a little better, he slugged a fair bit worse. Not a career year, but more or less what you could have expected of him. I hope he is closer to the 364 plate appearances next season.
David Eckstein
PA R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB BA OB SA
Projected 451 49 20 2 3 36 26 32 6 .274 .326 .352
Actual 303 27 18 0 1 23 24 27 2 .277 .354 .358
It is hard to understand....Eck really did better than he was projected to, got on base much better and yet was considered a disappointment. Seems to me he was signed without any understanding of what he was able to do. And JP wonders why we don't think he has a plan.
We'll stop there and continue later in the week.
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6 comments
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is marco scutaro's projected and actual stats mixed up?
by hopelessjaysfan on
Oct 19, 2008 6:40 PM EDT
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Scoot's was totally messes up.....
Not sure what I did…..it is right now….thanks for pointing it out.
by Tom Dakers on
Oct 19, 2008 9:14 PM EDT
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I bet BP doesn't predict platoon splits
They would have missed by a mile this year.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
Oct 19, 2008 9:54 PM EDT
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yeah we had way too many guys with a reverse split...
or right handers with a reverse split. I’d like like to think that won’t carry over to next year
by Tom Dakers on
Oct 20, 2008 2:58 PM EDT
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I'd like to blame Denbo
coming over from the lefty-heavy Yanks, but Jeter spoke highly of him.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
Oct 20, 2008 8:57 PM EDT
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I can think of a reason why it would happen.....
other than they might have started over thinking when they had to face a lefty. It will be interesting to see if they have the same pattern next season.
by Tom Dakers on
Oct 21, 2008 12:34 AM EDT
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