Projections vs. Real Life, Part Two

Part two of comparing the player's season with Baseball Prospectus' projections.

John McDonald
                        PA     R 2b 3b  HR RBI BB SO SB    BA   OB   SA
Projected     188   18  8    1    1    15    9   26   5    .246 .288 .330
Actual           207    21  8   0    1    18  10   25   3    .210 .255 .269
Mac actually played more than they thought he would, unfortunately he also he even worse than they thought he would. They got the number of doubles and home runs right. I know he's on the team for his glove but he has to hit a little more than that.


Scott Rolen
                        PA    R  2b  3b HR RBI BB SO SB      BA  OB    SA
Projected      462  55 26   2  13   59  38  67    4    .263 .328 .430
Actual            467  58 30   3  11   50   46 71    5    .262 .349 .431
Sometimes the BP guys are so close it is scary, missed his plate appearances by 5. 1 point off on his BA and SA, the only thing they miss was his on base, he took a few more walks than they expected. Too bad they couldn't have told him to change his swing to relieve the stress on his shoulder earlier in the season, could have saved him a bit of time on the DL.


Alex Rios
                        PA   R   2b  3b HR RBI BB  SO  SB   BA     OB    SA
Projected      637 88  36   6   20  83   49 108  16  .280  .339  .468
Actual            686 91  47   8   15  79   44 112  32  .291  .337 . 461
Alex played even more than they figured he would, of course with the rest of the outfield blowing up he had to play almost every day. He hit a lot more doubles then they thought but made up for that by hitting fewer home runs and I thought their guess was pretty conservative when the season started. Walk rate was a little lower than they expected but BA was a little higher, so all in all they were pretty close. He doubled their guess on stolen bases. If we get to choose, next year I'd rather he double their guess for homers.


Vernon Wells
                      PA   R   2b 3b HR RBI BB  SO SB    BA   OB    SA
Projected    609 79  32   3  21   82  51   88   9   .270 .333 .454
Actual           466 63  22  1  20   78  29   46   4   .300 .343 .496
Can't blame them for not foreseeing the injuries but other than that, he had a much much better season than they predicted. Didn't have the walk rate they thought but hit with far more power and much better average. Hopefully that bodes well for next season; he can have the monster year we'd all like him to have.


Matt Stairs
                     PA    R  2b 3b HR  RBI BB SO SB   BA   OB    SA
Projected   346 49  20  1   16   58   39  62   2  .276  .361 .511
Actual         368 42  11   1   11  44   41  87   1  .250  .342 .394
Other than being pretty close on the plate appearances and walk rate, they couldn't have missed this one more if they had tried. The guy had an awful year, though I'm pretty sure none of us would have guessed his slugging average would have been under .400, but hoping for over .500 seems like it wasn't really ground in reality either. I'm sure I've mentioned it before but when Gibby and Denbo were fired, Matt said ‘now you'll see me start hitting'. Well, he got worse after they left. I thought at the time it was a stupid thing to say, a 40 year old veteran shouldn't be blaming the hitting coach for an off year.


Adam Lind
                       PA    R  2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB     BA     OB    SA
Projected    473  54  26  2   16   64  35  97   3   .267   .324   .443
Actual          349  48  16  4     9    40 16   59   2   .282   .316   .439
He didn't get the at bats they projected or the at bats he should have got, considering the guys we played in the outfield in front of him. His walk rate was worse than they thought it would be and really too low for a major league outfielder unless his slugging average is in .550 or more. His home run rate was lower than projected too, they figured a homer about every 30 PA but he hit one every 39 PA, which for a corner outfielder with no speed and few walks isn't good enough. Of course since he didn't hit one out for the last month and a half of the season, maybe it was just a prolonged slump and he'll be back hitting them out next year. He'd better, Snider isn't much behind him.


Shannon Stewart
                      PA   R  2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB   BA    OB    SA
Projected   435  48 18   2   6    46  32  47   6   .271  .328 .374
Actual         200  14   4    2  1    14   22 18   3   .240  .325 .303
Looking at his projection, I still wonder what the heck they were thinking inviting this guy to spring training. What did they think would happen? And, of course, he didn't even come close to the projection. Except for a far better strikeout to walk rate, which brought up his on base to about what was projected.


Brad Wilkerson
                        PA   R 2b  3b HR RBI BB SO SB BA    OB    SA
Projected     365 47 17   2   14  47   42  96   5 .271 .328 .374
Actual           241 20   8    2    4   25   25  53   2 .216 .297 .332
He was projected to have a pretty miserable season, but with 14 home runs and managed to have a completely awful season with 4 homers. I can't believe they figured him to hit .271, a pretty empty .271 but still a reasonable average. I wonder if he has played himself out of baseball yet.


Frank Thomas
                      PA  R   2b 3b HR RBI BB  SO SB BA    OB   SA
Projected   425 52  20  0   20  69   58   68   2 .257 .362 .485
Actual           60   7    1   0     3  11    11  13    0 .167 .306 .333
I wasn't going to include Big Frank in this but if he had the season he was projected to, it would have been a different year for the Jays. Now I don't think they would have made the playoffs or anything like that but it is hard to imagine how many things would be different right now. Maybe they wouldn't have had Lind come up. Maybe, well likely, we wouldn't have seen Snider in a Jay's uniform this year. Maybe we wouldn't have been treated to Wilk or Mench. Would Gibby still be manager? There are a whole mess of ‘what ifs?' But we are stuck with the real world, where Thomas didn't hit.


Joe Inglett only got a passing mention in the book; he came out of nowhere. That 's all the batters....later in the week we'll look at the pitchers.

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