I Need Your Government Warning Like I Need a Hole in the Head: Jays 2009 Hitting Projections

by hugo on Oct 23, 2008 9:00 AM EDT in Analysis Comment 3 comments

Let’s take a look at two projection systems for the 2009 Jays: Bill James and ZIPS. Last season, some of you may remember, Bill James was a lot more bullish on the Jays’ hitters than was ZIPS, and ZIPS turned out to be a lot closer to the truth. This season, ZIPS actually has Matt Watson, career minor-leaguer, as the 2nd best hitter on the Jays, which I wouldn’t interpret as a good sign. Let’s see what they have in store for our azure-clad (at least on Flashback Fridays) heroes next season, starting with the hitters. Full ZIPS projections are, as always, available here on Baseball Think Factory. The James numbers are an SB Nation sneak preview but will eventually, I think, be up on Fangraphs.

                     At-Bats    2B    HR    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS
Alexis Rios
ZIPS           596        39    18    .293    .347    .478    .825
James           611        42    16    .291    .344    .462    .806

Lyle Overbay
ZIPS                 496        32    13    .270    .350    .417    .767
James           520        37    15    .271    .355    .433    .788

Scott Rolen
ZIPS               363        25    10    .259    .340    .416    .756
James            488        35    17    .268    .356    .453    .809

Adam Lind
ZIPS                460        25    16    .276    .323    .443    .766
James            597        39    23    .300    .349    .494    .863

Vernon Wells
ZIPS              514        29    18    .274    .329    .444    .773
James            533        33    23    .281    .336    .480    .816

Aaron Hill
ZIPS              438        29    7    .281    .334    .400    .734
James            463        32    9    .285    .343    .421    .764

Joe Inglett
ZIPS                414        18    4    .283    .338    .379    .717
James            294        15    3    .289    .349    .391    .740

Jose Bautista
ZIPS                457        25    19    .230    .319    .414    .733
James            374        22    14    .251    .336    .428    .764

Marco Scutaro
ZIPS                352        16    6    .261    .334    .364    .698
James            437        23    7    .259    .332    .368    .700

Travis Snider
ZIPS                526        27    19    .251    .304    .411    .715
James            448        29    19    .270    .342    .462    .804

And then the bleak catching situation:
Rod Barajas
ZIPS                277        17    9    .242    .298    .401    .699
James            384        24    13    .240    .291    .404    .695

J.P. Arencibia
ZIPS                396        21    15    .247    .272    .414    .686

Brian Jeroloman
ZIPS              336        14    5    .226    .320    .313    .633

Curtis Thigpen
ZIPS              339        20    4    .221    .281    .322    .603
James            154        10    2    .240    .299    .344    .643

Well. This isn’t very inspiring. According to ZIPS, most of the Jays are either average or below average for their respective positions. It is interesting to see how different the James numbers are for the Jays’ young hitters, Lind and Snider. ZIPS has Lind as an exactly average offensive performer (OPS of .766, OPS+ of 100), not good enough for a corner outfield spot, while James has him as an excellent one (OPS of .863 and 6.31 RC/27), the best on the team by a very wide margin, in fact.   As for Snider, ZIPS has him really struggling to get on base (.304 OBP), while James has him as capable of holding down an everyday job in a corner (.802 OPS). James and ZIPS are fairly consistent for the veterans, though I’d rather see James’ numbers for Overbay and Rolen, as they are substantially higher. Neither James nor ZIPS is particularly bullish on Rios, but ZIPS has him a bit better.

If Scutaro can indeed play average defense at SS over a full season next year, which I doubt, his offense is only slightly below that of the average SS. ZIPS didn’t even bother to predict J-Mac, but if he lives up to James’ projection of a .560 OPS, there’s no way the Jays can afford to carry him in the lineup unless they improve substantially elsewhere. Would J.J. Hardy’s projected line ever look good in this lineup (.273/.336/.462) or what?

Rolen actually projects out as better than the average offensive 3rd baseman according to ZIPS, and considering his still-fantastic defense that would be great except they have him only playing just over half a season. An Inglett/Bautista platoon wouldn’t be too bad as a temporary fill-in, though. I like Inglett/Scutaro a lot better (at least Scoot offers good D at 3rd and can get on base a bit) if the Jays could only find someone to play SS.

And finally, the catching situation. These are some bad looking stats. ZIPS doesn’t think we can count on Jeroloman or Arencibia this sesason, and I don’t think we can count on Barajas to play every day. I bet we sign a vet on a short-term deal, similar to what we’ve done pretty much every year for a long time while we’ve waited for countless Jays catchers of the future to be ready. Any chance we could get Ramon Castro? I’ve always thought he had the skills to be an everyday catcher (good secondary skillset) but he’s never really gotten the chance. FWIW, James projects him to OPS .785.

The upshot: I’m not sure we can sit back and hope James is right about Lind AND Snider. The Jays need to upgrade their offense. The difficulty is doing it: a huge bat is going to be ridiculously expensive and the Jays have needs elsewhere. And the free-agent market isn’t exactly littered with big-hitting shortstops or catchers. Some possible options that seem reasonable: someone like Jack Cust or Jason Giambi to DH, with whom J.P. has some ties. James projects both to put up high-800s OPSes, which would be very likely to lead the team. On a short-term deal, neither would necessarily block Snider. Perhaps Khalil Greene could be tried at SS, with Scoot and/or Mac as a backup option. There’s no guarantee that it would work out, but it certainly offers some upside that Scoot and Mac don’t (though James has Greene and Scoot almost exactly the same offensively, moving from Petco could help Greene).

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The Overbay one worries me....

and that there are only a couple of guys who project to even have 20 homers, but then what should I expect after last season. I’d like to think James is right about Rolen and that they both are wrong about Hill. The catching, I didn’t think Barajas was a major league starting catcher before last season and I still don’t. But a little consistancy from him would be nice.

The problem we have is we aren’t clearly above average at any position so when you have a couple of spots that are black holes we can’t hide them.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 23, 2008 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

with Overbay

I think it’s possible he will outperform his slugging, based on the assumption that hand/wrist injuries like the one he had often take a year for your power to fully return, and he did slug 46 points higher in the second half last season despite having almost the exact same batting average. I think he could put up .350/.450 next season, which wouldn’t be too bad considering his defense is still top notch. The problem is we still need someone to step up and hit substantially above average for their position, and it won’t be Lyle.

ZIPS has been consistently pessimistic about Hill, and except for last season, he has outperformed ZIPS, so there’s some basis to at least hope for James’ numbers so long as he’s healthy. He did OPS .792 in his last healthy season, which is very good for a second baseman with his defensive ability, and I don’t think anyone felt like that was a fluke. He might not hit for as much power, but he could certainly raise his OBP from what it was that season (.333)

A full season from Vernon at the levels he performed for 2/3 of one last year would be a big help too (he was the Jays’ best hitter by a wide margin), but according to the numbers, he really needs to work on his defense. It might be worth switching Wells and Rios, since the weight of the numbers is starting to suggest that Rios is a better defensive center fielder and because playing a corner might keep Wells healthier. The wrist injury was a fluke, obviously, but the hamstring injury might suggest some wear and tear. Vernon is fast and, despite what folks sometimes say, looks to me to be in good shape, but he’s a big guy to be dashing all around the outfield, and that has to catch up with you at some point.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Oct 23, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've said before and I'll say again

I’d love to see them upgrade to either Hardy or Greene. The beauty of Khalil Greene is that his opportunity cost is lower than Hardy’s, but he’s obviously got a lower ceiling and way lower floor.

"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" --Apu Nahasapeemapetilon

by jessef on Oct 23, 2008 6:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs