Real Life Vs. Projections, Part 3, The Pitchers

Continuing our look at how the Baseball Prospectus projections compared to how our Blue Jays did in real life.

Roy Halladay
                     W    L  G   GS    IP        H    BB   SO  HR ERA
Projected   16   7  31  31   225.1  232  48  139  15  3.72
Season      20 11  34  33   246.0  220  39  206  18  2.78
Doc, well you don't need my to tell you he had an amazing year, a full run per game better ERA than they projected. And his strikeout rates was far better than they thought, with fewer walks in more innings. And 4 more wins than they figured he would have. You know you've had a a great year when you are project to be terrific and you do much much better than the projection.

A.J. Burnett
                      W  L   G  GS       IP        H   BB   SO  HR  ERA
Projected   10   8  25  25   165.2   131  66  176   23  3.75
Season      18 10  35  34    221.1  211  86  231  19   4.07
Gee it is surprising that BP wouldn't have thought AJ wouldn't have 34 starts. You think anyone figured he could get thru a season without an injury. Other than that he wasn't quite as good as they thought he would be. His hit rate was higher than they thought and his ERA was higher, though his home run rate was lower. And he had a lot more wins than they projected. So in all he didn't wasn't as good as they thought he'd be but he had the luck of getting thru the season with getting hurt and he was luckier in picking up wins.

Jesse Litsch
                     W  L    G   GS    IP         H   BB SO HR    ERA
Projected    7   9   20  20  111.0   116  36  50  14    3.81
Season      13  9   29  28  176.0   178  39   99  20   3.58
He pitched a lot more than they guessed, his walk and strikeout rate was better and so was his ERA. He really was good this year, He really doesn't have to get too much better to be one of the real good ones in the league.

Shawn Marcum
                     W  L    G    GS     IP        H   BB   SO HR  ERA
Projected   12  6   38   25  159.0  149   49  122  27  4.13
Season       9    7   25   25  151.1 126   50  123   21  3.39
Well, they got the number of starts right were close in innings, walk rate and strikeout rate. But he was much much better than they projected. He gave up a lot fewer homers. I think the Jays will miss him more than AJ next season. Came up short on the number of wins...hardly his fault.

Dustin McGowan
                      W    L    G   GS    IP        H    BB   SO HR  ERA
Projected    12  10  27   27  169.2  146  61  144  14  4.08
Season         6     7  19   19  111.1  115   38   85    9   4.37
Dustin's projection was quite close to what really happened, how were they to know his arm would fall off. Well, actually as a young pitcher whose innings pitched took a big leap the year before, there was a good chance something might happen.

David Purcey
                       W  L    G   GS     IP        H   BB SO HR   ERA
Projected      4   7   25  17     94.0  105  62  69  15   6.43
Season         3   6   12  12    65.0     67   29  58   9    5.54
They figured he'd pitch more than he did, don't know why when they figure a 6.43 ERA, why would you give someone like that the ball. He had a much better strikeout rate and much better walk rate than they projected. A small step forward would make him a pretty valuable pitcher. Gotta like a guy that strikes out 8/9 innings.

We will look at the relievers Monday.

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