Real Life Vs. Projections, Part 4, The Relievers

Finally getting to the last part of our comparison between how Baseball Prospectus thought the Jay players would perform and how they actually did. I figured to get this up earlier but, like John Lennon said 'life is what happens while you are making other plans.

Scott Downs
                     W  L   SV   G    IP      H   BB   SO   HR   ERA
Projected     4   2    1   81  58     47   24    57     3     2.17
Season        0   3     5  66  70.2  54   27    57     3     1.78

They thought Snakeface would be terrific and he was even better than they thought. He appeared in fewer games than they figure, some of the was due to the ankle injury, but he pitched more inning, because they figured he'd be a one out lefty again. Instead he moved into the set up role. His strikeout rate was a little lower than they penciled in for him, but he was great because he was able to get ground balls when ever he wanted one. His ERA was even better before he hurt his ankle, it was 1.17 before his last 2 games. It was one of the 2 or 3 best seasons ever for a Jay's setup man. You could make an arguement for him as team MVP.

B.J. Ryan
                     W    L   SV  G        IP      H    BB  SO HR  ERA
Projected     4    4   14  48    58.1    47   22   67   5    2.96
Season        2    4   32  60    58.0    46   28   58   3    2.95

They were almost right on for BJ. He pitched in a few more games and had a lot more saved than they thought. BB/SO ratio wasn't quite as good as they thought, but considering he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, they did a heck of a job to come this close in their projections.

Brian Tallet
                    W   L SV   G       IP     H     BB SO HR   ERA
Projected    2   2   2   45    47.0  47    21   37   6    4.51
Season       1   2   0   51    56.1  52    22   47   4    2.88

Also had a better season than projected. His strikeout to walk rate was much better as was his ERA. Cito gave him some high leverage innings as he gained trust in him.

Jason Frasor
                    W   L SV   G      IP      H    BB  SO HR ERA
Projected    3   3   4   53   60.0   56   25   57   7   4.03
Season       1   2   1   49   47.1   36   32   42   4   4.18

Gave up fewer hits than they figured but his BB/SO rate was much worse. If he could cut the number of walks, he could be a useful player. Likely won't be our problem next year. I wonder if he would have done better if he felt the manager had any faith in him? Cito's believes that players do better if they feel they have the managers faith....so what happens to a player that clearly doesn't have that?

John Parrish
                     W  L SV   G      IP      H    BB  SO HR    ERA
Projected    1   2   1   34   35.1   40   22   31    2     5.05
Season       1   1   0   13   42.1   47   15   21    5     4.04

Parrish pitched more as a starter than a reliever, he game up more home runs than they thought. his strikeout rate was lower then they projected too. As he is a free agent we likely won't see more of him, but he was very good in a relief role, he could be a useful piece for some team.

Shawn Camp
                      W  L   SV  G      IP       H    BB SO HR   ERA
Projected     2   2    2   36    40.0   47   13   27   4    4.83
Season        3   1    0   40    39.1   40   11   31   2    4.12

He was better than they thought he'd be, and better than I though he'd be. He could be a really good pitcher if he could come up with a pitch to throw to lefties or if he could find a manager that would only use him against right hander batter. Giving up fewer hits, fewer walks and fewer homers than Baseball Prospectus projected added up to a much better ERA.

Brandon League
                    W    L SV    G       IP     H    BB  SO HR  ERA
Projected    2    3   1    35   47.1   49   22   32   4     4.52
Season       1    2   1    31   33.0   28   15   23   2      2.18

BP had him down for 3 starts. He allowed hits at a much lower rate than they thought and had an ERA half of what they guessed. Sooner or later he's going to have a closer job somewhere.

Cy Carlson didn't even show on Baseball Prospectus' radar. I don't think any of us thought he would play a role for the Jays before he joined the team.