This is Reassuring...

by bunner on Dec 26, 2008 12:36 PM EST

Note From Hugo: Promoted from Diaries

JP told MLB.com: "We're done. We won't be spending any money."

Wow...for a team that was close to doing something last year letting the team improve together might be ok, but for a team that was close to being good last year that lost their #2 starter to free agency and their #3 and #4 starters to injury you'd think that a little money might need to be thrown around to make 2009 better then 2008.

I don't know what else to say we've all talked about how their needs are in the rotation, at DH and at SS...not to mention a leadoff hitter in there too.

Best Case Scenario: Everyone on the roster stays healthy, Snider hits like he did in 2008 and wins ROY...Matt Clement returns to his form from when he was healthy...Casey Janssen can handle starting duties...the bullpen performs as it did in 2008...Adam Lind continues to improve...Alex Rios, Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, Scott Rolen all show improvement from 2008...Someone out of Brett Cecil and Rickey Romero step up to be an effective starter....the Jays finish 4th in the East

More Likely Scenario: There will be some injuries to key players at some point...Snider struggles because he needs more AAA time...Matt Clement won't be effective...Casey Janssen struggles a bit after not pitching for a year and not starting for 2...the bullpen falls off a bit from 2008...Adam Lind continues to improve...Rios hits more HR, Overbay is the same, Wells is the same, Rolen gets injured...Romero and Cecil will struggle at the ML level....the Jays finish 4th in the East

Either way it doesn't matter...the Jays are no where near the same league as the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays (who are a bit of a question heading into 2009)...and are still better then Baltimore no matter how things work out in 2009.

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I'll admit, I have no idea why he would say that.....

And I’ll also admit, I don’t believe anything he says…..this no more than anything else. I still figure he’ll wait and see who could be picked up cheap closer to spring training.

I’m not as pessimistic about things. I don’t see us as being far behind the Sox or the Rays at the moment. Yankees look good on paper at the moment but like they say, the game isn’t played on paper. The team isn’t young, guys like Jeter, Damon, Matsui, Posada could easily fall off. CC is fat and could fall off and AJ….well no one knows what will happen with him. Joba is yet to show he can stand up to a season of starting and Wang is coming off an injury too.

Our offense will be better than last year just on not using Wilkerson, Mench, Stewart, Thomas. I’d like to think we can’t possibly be as bad with RISP. With McGowan back in May, if Listch pitches like he finished the season last year, Purcey improves some and Doc stays being Doc…you never know. Richmond wasn’t bad last year, We should be fun to watch at least.

But then I might just be a glass is half full guy. I’d love a DH tho.

by Tom Dakers on Dec 25, 2008 2:27 AM EST reply actions

Could you fill me in on the injuries to Marcum and McGowan?

I remember hearing “torn labrum” with one of them… and that’s never a good thing.

What’s the timetable on their return?

It's a crazy messed-up world... It's a doggy-dogg world...

by oc on Dec 25, 2008 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

Well best I understand it...

McGowan had surgery to repair ‘fraying of his labrum’ near the end of July. Apparently there was a minor tear, he hopes to be back in May.
Marcum had Tommy John surgery and will miss 2009 but should be ready to go 2010. Of course a lot can happen by then.

by Tom Dakers on Dec 25, 2008 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

Here

is the link to the story.

I think JP is still hoping to get a bargain DH on a 1-year deal, but doesn’t want to get fans’ expectations up about that in case the price never comes down. If it happens, he can just say “I know I said I wasn’t going to sign anyone, but when you can get a bat like so-and-so at this price, you make it happen” or whatnot.

Also, the context of his statement is the Teixiera signing so it could be read as to only apply to free agents, meaning the Jays will still be in on the trade market.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 26, 2008 12:40 PM EST reply actions

hugo

Two exactly dead on points. JP has said in the past “this is our team” and then went out and made signings and trades and waved off the contradiction with “we didnt expect this to be available” or whatever. And a careful analysis shows a clear reference in that remark to signing free agents.

I think the wheels are always turning regarding trades and it’s very true that you don’t know in December what you might do in January. For one obvious example, if the Jays had known the Glaus deal was coming available, they would have never dealt for Overbay because Koskie could have moved to 1B. But the Overbay deal was made not knowing that the chance to get Glaus would arise.

by TamRa on Dec 26, 2008 5:51 PM EST reply actions

Jays are still a 92 win team

50 runs better than 2008 on O and 50 runs worse on D.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Dec 29, 2008 11:10 PM EST reply actions

And by D I mean all aspects of run prevention

which is actually primarily pitching.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Dec 29, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions

correct me if i'm wrong

but adding equal numbers of runs to offense and defense should worsen a >.500 team’s Pythagorean record, shouldn’t it? if the jays go from 714 RS, 610 RA to 764 RS, 660 RA, shouldn’t they win fewer games (obviously discounting their inability to play to anything even close to their Pythagorean record last year)?

"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon

by jessef on Jan 1, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions

Pythagenpat says 92.5 wins with 714-610

and 91.99 wins with 764-660.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Jan 2, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

ah

so not really enough to make much of a difference at all

"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon

by jessef on Jan 2, 2009 7:49 PM EST up reply actions

Right

Your point is well taken than same run differential doesn’t imply same pythagorean, but in this case it turns out to be true, or at least true enough for my point to stand.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Jan 2, 2009 8:29 PM EST up reply actions

if that's true,

don’t you have to go out and get Manny, particuarly since it looks like he is going to have to settle for a short-term big annual salary deal? He puts them in the playoff conversation, no?

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman