I'll Show You How Smart I Am - Game 46, Jays at Phillies
Toronto @ Philadelphia
Today's post is brought our way by a wonderful little Randy Newman song from Sail Away called "Memo To My Son". It seemed appropriate given Rod Barajas' sweet sweet revenge yesterday. Barajas was booed endlessly when with Philadelphia last season. Not that they don't boo everyone, but in the games I went to/watched it was quite mean-spirited with respect to Barajas. Anyway, after Barajas pounded a grand slam in the first inning yesterday and followed up with a solo shot later, it will be interesting to see whether he gets the start today even though it's a day game after a night game and there's a righty on the mound. Yesterday's game featured a nice start from A.J. Burnett, who evened his record to 4-4 with a 6 1/3 inning, 8 K performance. A.J. walked three. Armando Benitez, on the other hand, followed up his strong performance a few days ago with another shaky performance. Benitez walked pinch-hitter Shane Victorino and then surrendered a double to Jimmy Rollins. Rollins took third when the ball got by Barajas, but Benitez struck out Jason Werth. Scott Downs came in and struck Chase Utley with the pitch. Gibbons was ejected arguing that Utley swung at the pitch (which it looked like to me, though I would not expect to get that call either) but Ryan Howard flew out and the threat was over. Downs followed it up with a nice 8th and Ryan closed it out without too much drama in the 9th. Barajas provided most of the offense but Marco Scutaro and Scott Rolen each reached base safely 3 times. I know people don't love Scutaro, but for my money he's done a great job filling in at Short. He's a third-string SS who can hit a little bit (.313/.377/.396 in May, which roughly corresponds to when Eckstsein and MacDonald went down, and getting on base at a .362 clip this season) and doesn't embarass himself in the field (1 error so far this season from SS, though he had his ups and downs at 3rd base when Rolen was out). Not someone you want starting, but not someone who is bad to have around, if you're like the Jays and you really don't have anyone in the high minors who is capable of filling in at infield positions on an everyday basis (Inglett's not a terrible hitter either, but is no shortstop).
Anyway, back to today's game - Shaun Marcum has been lights out this season and will get the start. Of course Marcum's been fortunate with respect to balls in play (his .184 BABIP this season can't be expected to continue) and with baserunners (most pitchers can't leave 80% of their runners on base) but striking out 49 and walking 16 over his 56 2/3 innings this season suggests that he's going to be just fine. One interesting thing is that Marcum is getting a ton more grounders this season (46.4 GB% to last season's 40.2%) which is great and has been part of why his home run rate this season is basically half of what it was last year.
I'm looking forward to today's game, which I'll definitely be watching, and hoping that the Philadelphia weather cooperates, since it has been rather rainy here in nearly Washington D.C.
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Does his grounder rate explain his BABIP?
I mean, the BABIP on grounders has to be less than fly balls (and obviously line drives), if for no other reason than that you can’t hit a ground ball homer.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:10 PM EDT 0 recs
Also, the Bannister test
What’s his rate for getting 0-2 counts on batters?
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 1:12 PM EDT
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Does the HR count against your BABIP?
It makes sense that it would, but I thought I remembered reading somewhere that it’s not factored in. I think groundballs are actually slightly more likely to result in hits than outfield flies (and obviously much more likely to turn into hits than infield flies).
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 1:12 PM EDT
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yep
according to the THT glossary, Home Runs aren’t factored into BABIP
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 1:14 PM EDT
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Ah, good point
but it’s the line drive rate that will be most telling, since I think 70% of line drives turn into hits.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 1:14 PM EDT
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true
I think studies have shown though that for the most part, preventing line drives isn’t a repeatable skill for most major league pitchers as compared to other major league pitchers. FWIW, Marcum’s line drive rate hasn’t been extraordinarily low or anything (14.6% after 17.7% last season)
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 1:19 PM EDT
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Wouldn't that be ~20 points of BABIP, though?
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 1:27 PM EDT
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that's probably about right, yep
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 1:30 PM EDT
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and now that the lineups are in
Barajas is indeed starting. Lyle gets the offday.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:10 PM EDT 0 recs
I'm looking forward to watching Marcum bat today
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:20 PM EDT 0 recs
I remember one interleague game last year
Must have been against the Phillies, where the announcers said that Marcum was the first pitcher they’d seen who stepped into the batter’s box looking like he wanted to be there.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 1:29 PM EDT
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Jays down in order
Wilk saw a few pitches, at least.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:48 PM EDT 0 recs
no way Rios
doesn’t catch that hit by Rollins, right?
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:51 PM EDT 0 recs
Agreed
Also, Barajas could have had Rollins at second if the throw was to the first base side of the bag.
by SuckaMD on
May 18, 2008 1:55 PM EDT
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true
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 1:57 PM EDT
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I know Wilkerson's costing us the minimum
but what do you think Kenny Lofton would cost?
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:55 PM EDT 0 recs
Probably not too much more
But would he really be that much better? A Jays lineup with Lofton replacing Wilk would still struggle mightily to score.
by SuckaMD on
May 18, 2008 1:57 PM EDT
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His OBP would be way better leading off
and you have to figure the D would be better. Of course it’s aggravated today by Stairs having to play right to get him in the lineup.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 1:58 PM EDT
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Lofton might be better
but I wouldn’t want to see the team go for another past-his-prime guy before giving Lind another shot. Lofton might be better, but I doubt he’s the answer
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 2:04 PM EDT
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Not sure that Lind is the answer for leadoff
even ignoring his 1 for 19.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 2:06 PM EDT
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right I wouldn't bat him leadoff
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 3:02 PM EDT
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Also, is Lind's arm suddenly good enough for right field?
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 2:22 PM EDT
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nice pitch to get Utley swinging
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:57 PM EDT 0 recs
that sucked
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:59 PM EDT 0 recs
Went back to the well once too often
with the changeup.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:59 PM EDT 0 recs
A walk to Burrell?
Un-Marcum-like.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on May 18, 2008 2:01 PM EDT 0 recs
it's pouring here
not sure what it’s like in Philly, but I can’t imagine this game is going to go forward without at least a delay
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 2:02 PM EDT 0 recs
Looks like it's coming down pretty hard
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 2:02 PM EDT
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and the tarp is out
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 2:04 PM EDT
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Rain delay
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on May 18, 2008 2:04 PM EDT 0 recs
If the game gets cancelled
That would require a one-day makeup game taking away an off-day later in the season, would it not? That might be costly if the Jays find still themselves in striking distance at the end of the summer (admittedly a huge if, but still)
by SuckaMD on May 18, 2008 2:05 PM EDT 0 recs
Because
There wouldn’t be a chance to play a doubleheader or make another arrangement vs the Phillies
by SuckaMD on
May 18, 2008 2:06 PM EDT
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the Jays are off tomorrow, right?
if the Phillies are also off, that’d work out
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 2:06 PM EDT
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Phils play Nats tomorrow.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 2:07 PM EDT
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ah
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 2:07 PM EDT
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Next common off day is June 23rd
Phils are at home against LAA the previous day while Jays are in PIT. Phils would be heading to Oakland for their following series, though, so that’s a tough off day to lose. (Not as bad as losing the one coming back, of course.)
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 2:10 PM EDT
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it's stopped raining here, for whatever that's worth
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:14 PM EDT 0 recs
You have to figure, even if they do start up again
that Marcum’s not coming back out after a 90+ minute delay, right?
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on May 18, 2008 3:17 PM EDT 0 recs
I would hope not
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 3:18 PM EDT
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a little irritating that they started the game
when it was already raining, just to play one inning
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 3:19 PM EDT
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So would Marcum be able to go on Tuesday, is the question
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 3:20 PM EDT
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I'd think so
he only threw 22 pitches
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 3:20 PM EDT
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But then how does the rotation shake out?
If Litsch was going to have his day skipped for the off day tomorrow, do you have him pitch Wednesday and give everyone extra days off? (Extra days off do tend to make starters more effective.)
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 3:27 PM EDT
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I guess it also depends on if we'd have to use a starter to finish the game today
then Litsch could take his spot in the rotation
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 3:31 PM EDT
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On short rest?
I might do it for an inning or two, but it’s really early in the game to be going to starters.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 3:35 PM EDT
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stupid to start the game
under these conditions.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" --Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
by jessef on
May 18, 2008 3:48 PM EDT
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And after a delay this long, why not just call it?
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 3:54 PM EDT
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good thing
I’ve got tons of work to do while I wait for the game to start back up
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 3:57 PM EDT
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I agree
but it’s not like we have a long man in the bullpen, so we might need to do it. Tallet pitched 3 innings in Purcey’s start, on friday so he’s likely unavailable. Camp, Carlson, and Frasor could give us 7 or 8 innings potentially, but it’s no sure thing.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 3:51 PM EDT
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the sun is out here now
so I’d imagine the game will be starting up pretty soon
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:54 PM EDT 0 recs
it's so interesting
that all these announcers feel like the interleague games favor the national league teams (i’m watching the Nats-Os game during the delay). That seems so counterintuitive to me
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:02 PM EDT 0 recs
Durbin now in for Phila
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:08 PM EDT 0 recs
quickly puts the Jays down
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 4:10 PM EDT
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Camp in for the Jays
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:12 PM EDT 0 recs
quick inning for Camp
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 4:18 PM EDT
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You figure Camp's one and done?
Two righties and a pitcher at the bottom of the order. A bunch of lefties due up; I’d figure we’d see a few innings of Carlson.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on May 18, 2008 4:18 PM EDT 0 recs
I'm guessing
Gibby sends Camp out again. Perhaps he should’ve used Carlson for this past inning, then he could have kept him in through Utley and Howard.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 4:20 PM EDT
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But you could have had Carlson against them either way
This isn’t a lineup where you can get a bunch of righties in a row anywhere except the bottom, so if you were going to use a righty specialist like Camp that was the time to do it.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 4:22 PM EDT
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that's true
I just don’t think Gibby will risk pulling Camp after just the one inning with so much game left to go
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 4:24 PM EDT
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Didn't realize the game was back on....is Zaun hurt....Barajas starting again, or just hoping he's hot?
by rincewind on May 18, 2008 4:22 PM EDT 0 recs
I think just hoping he's hot
He does have a 7 game hitting streak going.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 4:24 PM EDT
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Scoot draws the walk
Looks like Camp is going to hit for himself.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on May 18, 2008 4:24 PM EDT 0 recs
he bunts Scoot over
with two strikes
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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Sports net doesn't know the game is on....have a little feature on Babe Ruth.....
by rincewind on May 18, 2008 4:25 PM EDT 0 recs
It's only on Sportsnet East
The rest are showing the Memorial Cup starting at 4:30
by SuckaMD on
May 18, 2008 4:30 PM EDT
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I thought for sure that was a hit
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:28 PM EDT 0 recs
Just like every time we line out at someone?
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 4:29 PM EDT
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He's going to ahve to get some hits soon.....how long will the Jays keep using him if he doesn't?
by rincewind on
May 18, 2008 4:29 PM EDT
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he's already gotten a lot more plate appearances than Lind got
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 4:30 PM EDT
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And he's 6 for 32 with 2 walks
which is way better than Lind was, even if it’s not great
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 4:32 PM EDT
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Well
he has a .423 OPS (lower after his two at-bats today) for Toronto so theoretically we should be hoping to do a bit better
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 4:34 PM EDT
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This is why I brought up Kenny Lofton
Because with Wells down, you need someone who can play right.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 4:31 PM EDT
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has Loften played much right?
I can’t say I remember him ever playing there.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 4:37 PM EDT
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He's played center
If you’re worried about him making the transition, you could always move Rios back to right.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on
May 18, 2008 4:38 PM EDT
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you could
but depending on how much Loften has declined defensively, the defense might be better off with Rios in Center and our DH platoon in right and Lind in left than with Stewart in left, Lofton in center, and Rios in right
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on
May 18, 2008 4:42 PM EDT
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very nice play by Hill
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:35 PM EDT 0 re


