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I'll Show You How Smart I Am - Game 46, Jays at Phillies

Toronto @ Philadelphia





Today's post is brought our way by a wonderful little Randy Newman song from Sail Away called "Memo To My Son". It seemed appropriate given Rod Barajas' sweet sweet revenge yesterday. Barajas was booed endlessly when with Philadelphia last season. Not that they don't boo everyone, but in the games I went to/watched it was quite mean-spirited with respect to Barajas. Anyway, after Barajas pounded a grand slam in the first inning yesterday and followed up with a solo shot later, it will be interesting to see whether he gets the start today even though it's a day game after a night game and there's a righty on the mound. Yesterday's game featured a nice start from A.J. Burnett, who evened his record to 4-4 with a 6 1/3 inning, 8 K performance. A.J. walked three. Armando Benitez, on the other hand, followed up his strong performance a few days ago with another shaky performance. Benitez walked pinch-hitter Shane Victorino and then surrendered a double to Jimmy Rollins. Rollins took third when the ball got by Barajas, but Benitez struck out Jason Werth. Scott Downs came in and struck Chase Utley with the pitch. Gibbons was ejected arguing that Utley swung at the pitch (which it looked like to me, though I would not expect to get that call either) but Ryan Howard flew out and the threat was over. Downs followed it up with a nice 8th and Ryan closed it out without too much drama in the 9th. Barajas provided most of the offense but Marco Scutaro and Scott Rolen each reached base safely 3 times. I know people don't love Scutaro, but for my money he's done a great job filling in at Short. He's a third-string SS who can hit a little bit (.313/.377/.396 in May, which roughly corresponds to when Eckstsein and MacDonald went down, and getting on base at a .362 clip this season) and doesn't embarass himself in the field (1 error so far this season from SS, though he had his ups and downs at 3rd base when Rolen was out). Not someone you want starting, but not someone who is bad to have around, if you're like the Jays and you really don't have anyone in the high minors who is capable of filling in at infield positions on an everyday basis (Inglett's not a terrible hitter either, but is no shortstop).

Anyway, back to today's game - Shaun Marcum has been lights out this season and will get the start. Of course Marcum's been fortunate with respect to balls in play (his .184 BABIP this season can't be expected to continue) and with baserunners (most pitchers can't leave 80% of their runners on base) but striking out 49 and walking 16 over his 56 2/3 innings this season suggests that he's going to be just fine. One interesting thing is that Marcum is getting a ton more grounders this season (46.4 GB% to last season's 40.2%) which is great and has been part of why his home run rate this season is basically half of what it was last year.

I'm looking forward to today's game, which I'll definitely be watching, and hoping that the Philadelphia weather cooperates, since it has been rather rainy here in nearly Washington D.C.

 

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Does his grounder rate explain his BABIP?

I mean, the BABIP on grounders has to be less than fly balls (and obviously line drives), if for no other reason than that you can’t hit a ground ball homer.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:10 PM EDT   0 recs

Also, the Bannister test

What’s his rate for getting 0-2 counts on batters?

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Does the HR count against your BABIP?

It makes sense that it would, but I thought I remembered reading somewhere that it’s not factored in. I think groundballs are actually slightly more likely to result in hits than outfield flies (and obviously much more likely to turn into hits than infield flies).

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yep

according to the THT glossary, Home Runs aren’t factored into BABIP

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ah, good point

but it’s the line drive rate that will be most telling, since I think 70% of line drives turn into hits.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

true

I think studies have shown though that for the most part, preventing line drives isn’t a repeatable skill for most major league pitchers as compared to other major league pitchers. FWIW, Marcum’s line drive rate hasn’t been extraordinarily low or anything (14.6% after 17.7% last season)

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wouldn't that be ~20 points of BABIP, though?

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that's probably about right, yep

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

and now that the lineups are in

Barajas is indeed starting. Lyle gets the offday.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:10 PM EDT   0 recs

I'm looking forward to watching Marcum bat today

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:20 PM EDT   0 recs

I remember one interleague game last year

Must have been against the Phillies, where the announcers said that Marcum was the first pitcher they’d seen who stepped into the batter’s box looking like he wanted to be there.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jays down in order

Wilk saw a few pitches, at least.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:48 PM EDT   0 recs

no way Rios

doesn’t catch that hit by Rollins, right?

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:51 PM EDT   0 recs

Agreed

Also, Barajas could have had Rollins at second if the throw was to the first base side of the bag.

by SuckaMD on May 18, 2008 1:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

true

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I know Wilkerson's costing us the minimum

but what do you think Kenny Lofton would cost?

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:55 PM EDT   0 recs

Probably not too much more

But would he really be that much better? A Jays lineup with Lofton replacing Wilk would still struggle mightily to score.

by SuckaMD on May 18, 2008 1:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

His OBP would be way better leading off

and you have to figure the D would be better. Of course it’s aggravated today by Stairs having to play right to get him in the lineup.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Lofton might be better

but I wouldn’t want to see the team go for another past-his-prime guy before giving Lind another shot. Lofton might be better, but I doubt he’s the answer

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 2:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not sure that Lind is the answer for leadoff

even ignoring his 1 for 19.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 2:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

right I wouldn't bat him leadoff

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Also, is Lind's arm suddenly good enough for right field?

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 2:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

nice pitch to get Utley swinging

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:57 PM EDT   0 recs

that sucked

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 1:59 PM EDT   0 recs

Went back to the well once too often

with the changeup.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 1:59 PM EDT   0 recs

A walk to Burrell?

Un-Marcum-like.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 2:01 PM EDT   0 recs

it's pouring here

not sure what it’s like in Philly, but I can’t imagine this game is going to go forward without at least a delay

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 2:02 PM EDT   0 recs

Looks like it's coming down pretty hard

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 2:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

and the tarp is out

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 2:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Rain delay

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 2:04 PM EDT   0 recs

If the game gets cancelled

That would require a one-day makeup game taking away an off-day later in the season, would it not? That might be costly if the Jays find still themselves in striking distance at the end of the summer (admittedly a huge if, but still)

by SuckaMD on May 18, 2008 2:05 PM EDT   0 recs

Because

There wouldn’t be a chance to play a doubleheader or make another arrangement vs the Phillies

by SuckaMD on May 18, 2008 2:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

the Jays are off tomorrow, right?

if the Phillies are also off, that’d work out

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 2:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Phils play Nats tomorrow.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 2:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ah

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 2:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Next common off day is June 23rd

Phils are at home against LAA the previous day while Jays are in PIT. Phils would be heading to Oakland for their following series, though, so that’s a tough off day to lose. (Not as bad as losing the one coming back, of course.)

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 2:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

it's stopped raining here, for whatever that's worth

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:14 PM EDT   0 recs

You have to figure, even if they do start up again

that Marcum’s not coming back out after a 90+ minute delay, right?

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 3:17 PM EDT   0 recs

I would hope not

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

a little irritating that they started the game

when it was already raining, just to play one inning

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

So would Marcum be able to go on Tuesday, is the question

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd think so

he only threw 22 pitches

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But then how does the rotation shake out?

If Litsch was going to have his day skipped for the off day tomorrow, do you have him pitch Wednesday and give everyone extra days off? (Extra days off do tend to make starters more effective.)

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 3:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I guess it also depends on if we'd have to use a starter to finish the game today

then Litsch could take his spot in the rotation

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

On short rest?

I might do it for an inning or two, but it’s really early in the game to be going to starters.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 3:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

stupid to start the game

under these conditions.

"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" --Apu Nahasapeemapetilon

by jessef on May 18, 2008 3:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And after a delay this long, why not just call it?

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 3:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

good thing

I’ve got tons of work to do while I wait for the game to start back up

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

but it’s not like we have a long man in the bullpen, so we might need to do it. Tallet pitched 3 innings in Purcey’s start, on friday so he’s likely unavailable. Camp, Carlson, and Frasor could give us 7 or 8 innings potentially, but it’s no sure thing.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

the sun is out here now

so I’d imagine the game will be starting up pretty soon

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 3:54 PM EDT   0 recs

it's so interesting

that all these announcers feel like the interleague games favor the national league teams (i’m watching the Nats-Os game during the delay). That seems so counterintuitive to me

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:02 PM EDT   0 recs

Durbin now in for Phila

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:08 PM EDT   0 recs

quickly puts the Jays down

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Camp in for the Jays

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:12 PM EDT   0 recs

quick inning for Camp

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You figure Camp's one and done?

Two righties and a pitcher at the bottom of the order. A bunch of lefties due up; I’d figure we’d see a few innings of Carlson.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 4:18 PM EDT   0 recs

I'm guessing

Gibby sends Camp out again. Perhaps he should’ve used Carlson for this past inning, then he could have kept him in through Utley and Howard.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But you could have had Carlson against them either way

This isn’t a lineup where you can get a bunch of righties in a row anywhere except the bottom, so if you were going to use a righty specialist like Camp that was the time to do it.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 4:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that's true

I just don’t think Gibby will risk pulling Camp after just the one inning with so much game left to go

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think just hoping he's hot

He does have a 7 game hitting streak going.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 4:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Scoot draws the walk

Looks like Camp is going to hit for himself.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 4:24 PM EDT   0 recs

he bunts Scoot over

with two strikes

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought for sure that was a hit

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:28 PM EDT   0 recs

Just like every time we line out at someone?

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 4:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

he's already gotten a lot more plate appearances than Lind got

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And he's 6 for 32 with 2 walks

which is way better than Lind was, even if it’s not great

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 4:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Well

he has a .423 OPS (lower after his two at-bats today) for Toronto so theoretically we should be hoping to do a bit better

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This is why I brought up Kenny Lofton

Because with Wells down, you need someone who can play right.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 4:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

has Loften played much right?

I can’t say I remember him ever playing there.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He's played center

If you’re worried about him making the transition, you could always move Rios back to right.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on May 18, 2008 4:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

you could

but depending on how much Loften has declined defensively, the defense might be better off with Rios in Center and our DH platoon in right and Lind in left than with Stewart in left, Lofton in center, and Rios in right

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

very nice play by Hill

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2008 4:35 PM EDT   0 re