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Back to .500, For the 17th Time.

50 games left and at .500 once again. I am hoping that this series will put us above .500 for the long haul. Doc as always was amazing, 8 innings and only 4 hits allowed, 1 walk and 8 strikeouts. And the offense found a way to score with the bases loaded, take one for the team. Our first two runs were scored because of hit batters with the bases loaded Scoot in the first and Lind in the second. After Lind was hit, Gallagher (the Jay's MVP on the night) threw a pitch over Stairs' head, that was ruled a passed ball.  Then Stairs singled and Wilk hit a sac fly and the game was over.

The offense the offense had a good night, if they could do this more often Doc would be the unanimous Cy Young winner. Everyone in the lineup had a hit, except Overbay, who scored and drove in a run, and Mac, who made a handful of nice defensive plays. Eck, Rios and Stairs each had two hits. We still had a lack of power, 10 hits and only 2 doubles.

I'm not going to post the fangraph, basically it shows that after the third inning we had the game won. It is here if you want to see it. Jays of the Day? Doc (like I needed to tell you, .257 WPA), Scoot (.113) and Lind (.110). Suckage Jay Eck (-.092), and that was with 2 hits in four at bats......

My only complaint was Cito using Downs to pitch the ninth with a 5 run lead. Downs has been amazing and leads the team in appearances (one more than Cy), but why is he needed in the ninth of a blow out?  The other guys in the pen have been good too. Oh well, he pitched another scoreless inning and has his ERA is down to 1.34 on the season.

In other news: Joe Inglett was a late scratch with a sore knee. Hope it doesn't keep him out long, without him Wilk will play every day. Rolen has sat the last two days. Vernon likely will be back at some point next week, I'm interested in who they will send down or release to make room for him.

Everyone's favorite first round, Ricky Romero, has had two good starts since being promoted to AAA, 10 innings and just 2 earned runs, 7 strikeouts but 8 walks. Hopefully he is finding himself (and will soon find the strike zone).

In tonight's Yankees/Rangers game Joba Chamberlain left the game after 4.2 with a stiff right shoulder. If he's lost for any extended period it would be really tough on the Yankees. They also lost the game tonight 9-5. Red Sox and Rays lost too.....if we were in the race, that would matter.

If you haven't seen the video of the fight in the Brewers dugout you ought to take a look on this page. Prince Fielder (how do you get a name like Prince?) shoved starting pitcher Manny Parra hard twice into the bench. I wouldn't want to take on Fielder, he's a big guy.

Tomorrow Scott Richmond gets his second start for us, Greg Smith a left-hander is to start for the A's. It should be an interesting game.

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good game

if we gave halladay 5 runs every single game, his record would be amazing..
i think that when wells comes back, we’re probably gonna get rid of mench… he’s barely used…. not that wilkerson is great or something…
yeah i was a little confused when cito brought out downs… we could’ve given other pitchers a little game time… don’t wanna overuse him like we have in the past….
rince, I’ve got a question though… what do those stats mean e.g. Lind (.110) and Eck (-.092)?

by hopelessjaysfan on Aug 5, 2008 12:57 AM EDT   0 recs

WPA is 'Win probability added'

basically before every at bat there is a percentage chance that either team would win. After each play there is a new percentage chance. The change in percentages is added or subtracted from the batter and pitcher. So the number is the what the player contributed to the team’s win. So today Doc’s .257 WPA means basically 26% of the win was due to Doc. Lind and Scoot contributed 11% of the win each. If you hit the link ( the word here in the story) it will take you to the fangraph.

And Doc is easy the best in the AL right now. Yeah likely Mench would be sent down…taking it for granted that Inglett’s knee is ok and depending on if they activate Stewart (please no).

by rincewind on Aug 5, 2008 1:29 AM EDT   0 recs

hmmm...

this is kinda interesting and I understand the logic of the numbers… scoot and lind both got the hbp’s… which were essential when the game was close…. it’s just that eckstein got the worst rating but he had a solid game yesterday, and wilkerson was second lowest going 1-3 with an RBI… i get it, barajas went 1-4 but had 2 runs which makes him more important to the win…. but i don’t know if you can take all these stats as hard and fast rules because it also depends on where you’re hitting in the order and which situations you’re put in….

by hopelessjaysfan on Aug 5, 2008 12:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah is game situations

Eck came up in the second with the bases loaded and ended the inning, if he had hit it would have been a big moment, it was only 1-0 at the time. In the first Scoot got on and Eck didn’t move Scoot forward. Eck did hit but after the 3 inning it was 5-0, so the game was already about a 90% plus chance at win. So his hits didn’t add much to our chances of winning.

Wilk took a strike out in the second with runners on 1st and 2nd and it was a scoreless tie at that moment. That was a huge moment in the game. Runners on 1st and 2nd and one out , odds are we should score….can’t remember but must be like a 75% chance of scoring. Then when it becomes 1st and 2nd with 2 out, odds of scoring go way down. And that would have been the first run of the game. Getting the first run really improves your chances of winning….so that was a huge moment in the game.

If you hit the ‘Play Log’ tab on the fangraph page for that game you can see that took us from a 59.1% chance to win to a 54.5% chance so was a -.053 WPA moment for Wilk. Eck’s moment in the second too us from a 67.2% chance to win to a 60.8% chance so a -064 WPA moment for him.

Some of it isn’t fair….I pick a suckage Jay for each game but I don’t keep track of those. Jay’s of the Day are the ones that had the most direct impact on pushing us towards a win. Is sort of a ‘clutch hitting’ stat. Do good things at a good time and you’ll get lots of Jay’s of the Day, if you look at the count, on the left side of the home page, the guys doing the best for the Jays have the most JoD.

by rincewind on Aug 5, 2008 4:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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