and have been calling for his ouster for a number of years now, I think there is more to this question than the binary decision the poll asks us to make. And, yes, I do realize that the poll is meant in fun and is at least partly tongue-in-cheek.

It’s certainly true that the Blue Jays have underachieved and that a fourth place finish should not generally be used as justification for a contract extension. But we here on BBB and elsewhere in the baseball blogosphere generally pride ourselves on being “enlightened” baseball fans who are willing and able to separate the conventional wisdom from statistical truth and plain old luck.

Looking at the standing going into tonight, the Jays stand at 84-75, placing them fourth in the AL East and seventh in American League. But many advanced metrics give the Jays a lot more credit than would seem their due. As an example, BP’s current third-order-runs adjusted standings has the Jays being the third best team in the AL (better than the Yankees), and indeed the fourth best in all of baseball. The only problem is that the two best teams happen to be in their division. Here’s the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

Similarly, baseball-reference.com’s pythagorean wins formula has the Jays currently sitting at 90 wins.

If we go by the statheads (which I think most of us BBBers tend to believe provide a robust analysis of the game), then the Jays have been done in by their inability to hit in the clutch (so what else is new) and some bad luck. These traits cannot, unfortunately, be blamed entirely on JP. So it seems that he has actually managed to put together quite a good team which has let him down somewhat. I think this performance probably justifies a one-year extension, which is what he has gotten.

Now, JP has made his share of bad moves (the Thomas debacle and Stewart/Wilk left field come immediately to mind). And I think a good argument can be made that his organizational stewardship has contributed greatly to the Jays’ seeming inability to keep young pitchers healthy. But despite this and the underachievement of many players, the Jays have actually managed to perform quite well (if you go by the advanced statistical metrics). Hopefully he can make some good moves in the offseason and the team can move forward. If not, then I’ll change my tune after next year.

JP did not actually get a contract extension, he just wasn’t fired. I still maintain that this is essentially equivalent to getting a one year extension, since they just decided not to fire him this year and will reconsider next year.

Sorry for the confusion