Return. You Were Supposed to Return: J.P. Ricciardi Back for 2010

by hugo on Sep 26, 2008 4:36 PM EDT in News Comment 6 comments

A little OK Go on this rainy friday here in D.C. So the Jays made it official - J.P. Ricciardi will be returning as Jays General Manager next season. Paul Godfrey, though, Jays president, hasn't yet decided whether he will be back next season.

Predictably, some believe the move to keep J.P. on to be quite head-scratching. But I have to say, though some of J.P.'s individual moves have been poor, others have been great, and I do think J.P. has the right idea in terms of building a baseball team. He put together an incredible pitching staff over the last two years, both in the rotation and the bullpen, and with so many rotation questions going into next season, the Jays could use his acumen in assembling their starting staff. He's done a fine job retaining his players, even though in the case of some of them, it may have been better to let them go.

Like any GM, he has his strengths and weaknesses. My biggest concern with J.P. is his tendency to approach problem areas by throwing several mediocre players at a problem and hoping that one sticks. This isn't always a bad strategy, but it hasn't really worked out well for the team so far and the result has basically been that the Jays' problem areas remain as problem areas year after year after year. I am also concerned that he lacks the creativity to put the Jays over the top in a tough division. I'm afraid he is treading water with the team, never rebuilding, but never going all in - tying up his payroll and playing time by locking in average and slightly-above average players, and just hoping that one year, things break the Jays' way. This might work, but it doesn't seem to me that it is what GMs get paid for.

What do y'all think? Vote and more importantly, leave your comments below.

Poll

What do you think about the Jays retaining J.P. Ricciardi as GM for the 2009 season?

Good move. Ricciardi has the team on the right track

8 votes

Awful move. He's the longest-serving GM without a playoff appearance, is a PR joke, and doesn't know what he's doing

16 votes

24 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 6 comments

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Comments

While I am anything but a JP fan

and have been calling for his ouster for a number of years now, I think there is more to this question than the binary decision the poll asks us to make. And, yes, I do realize that the poll is meant in fun and is at least partly tongue-in-cheek.

It’s certainly true that the Blue Jays have underachieved and that a fourth place finish should not generally be used as justification for a contract extension. But we here on BBB and elsewhere in the baseball blogosphere generally pride ourselves on being “enlightened” baseball fans who are willing and able to separate the conventional wisdom from statistical truth and plain old luck.

Looking at the standing going into tonight, the Jays stand at 84-75, placing them fourth in the AL East and seventh in American League. But many advanced metrics give the Jays a lot more credit than would seem their due. As an example, BP’s current third-order-runs adjusted standings has the Jays being the third best team in the AL (better than the Yankees), and indeed the fourth best in all of baseball. The only problem is that the two best teams happen to be in their division. Here’s the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

Similarly, baseball-reference.com’s pythagorean wins formula has the Jays currently sitting at 90 wins.

If we go by the statheads (which I think most of us BBBers tend to believe provide a robust analysis of the game), then the Jays have been done in by their inability to hit in the clutch (so what else is new) and some bad luck. These traits cannot, unfortunately, be blamed entirely on JP. So it seems that he has actually managed to put together quite a good team which has let him down somewhat. I think this performance probably justifies a one-year extension, which is what he has gotten.

Now, JP has made his share of bad moves (the Thomas debacle and Stewart/Wilk left field come immediately to mind). And I think a good argument can be made that his organizational stewardship has contributed greatly to the Jays’ seeming inability to keep young pitchers healthy. But despite this and the underachievement of many players, the Jays have actually managed to perform quite well (if you go by the advanced statistical metrics). Hopefully he can make some good moves in the offseason and the team can move forward. If not, then I’ll change my tune after next year.

by SuckaMD on Sep 26, 2008 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree the question is too complicated for yes/no

but I think those nuances are better brought out by people’s comments than me trying to anticipate what they might be.

so far not one person has voted that it is a good move to bring J.P. back. I have to admit, I don’t know that I would’ve brought him back, particularly with DePo out there, as I like his baseball mind a lot, but J.P. has done a good job with the Jays, all things considered – not an outstanding job, not a better job than fans should expect from someone paid to do what he does, but a reasonable job with more good moves than bad. That said, I’m not sure that he’s the guy to take us over the top.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Sep 26, 2008 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DePo's wife's family is in the SD area, apparently

so I don’t think he’d move out here. Anyways, the second half performance suggests that the offense that JP put together would actually have been good enough over the course of the season to make the playoffs given the right coaching. Who expected Denbo to be that bad?

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Sep 26, 2008 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're likely right about DePo

though that isn’t a reason not to ask, necessarily. It is a major-league GM job for a team that played darn well this season

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Sep 26, 2008 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

JP doesn't live in Toronto either right?

I don’t know that living somewhere else would necessarily rule you out for the job.

by Tom Dakers on Sep 27, 2008 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

addendum

JP did not actually get a contract extension, he just wasn’t fired. I still maintain that this is essentially equivalent to getting a one year extension, since they just decided not to fire him this year and will reconsider next year.

Sorry for the confusion

by SuckaMD on Sep 26, 2008 8:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs