I Visit These Mountains With Frequency And Stand There With Arms Outstretched: The Dangling Conversation, Part XII
by hugo on Jan 17, 2009 10:02 AM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintSo we ran out of quotes from the Dangling Conversation (which is sort of an unnecessarily wordy song on second glance, isn't it?) Today's title, then, comes from one of my favorite songs of all time, Rilo Kiley's "With Arms Outstretched" from their best record, The Execution of All Things. Creepy, clever, and yet somehow uplifting, it is full of great songs. Also, it's hard to not fall in love with Jenny Lewis.
Anyway, on to today's hither-and-yon, the topic of which is the outlook for the Jays 2009 offense.
Hugo: Will the Jays offense be better in 2009?
Rincewind: Oh yeah, we’ll be better offensively. I’m tempted to say we can’t get no worse but that would be tempting fate too much, but I really think we’ll be better at every position other than short and catcher. Even those two spots could be better than last year; Barajas can’t possibly be as inconsistent as last year and Barrett really doesn’t have to do too much to improve on Zaun’s numbers. Our offense at short could improve just by McDonald getting fewer at bats. I know I was slow to come around to this but Mac just doesn’t hit enough to play major league ball no matter how well he fields.
Hugo: I don’t have much hope for Barajas, personally, but Barrett might be of help, and Arencibia could provide a second-half boost. If Barrett is healthy (a big if) he could outplay Barajas offensively, but my guess is that Barajas gets the lion’s share of the at-bats due to defensive considerations, unless Barrett is really thumping or Barajas is terrible or gets hurt.
Rincewind: We’ll improve at first just with Overbay being a year further removed from a broken hand and, I hope, Cito going to a platoon at first so that Lyle doesn’t face lefties too often. At second base Inglett was terrific last year, but Hill is a better offensive player so we improver there as long as Hill can play. Rolen finished the season strong at third, last year, and if you take out an awful stretch Rolen had before he went on the DL in early August, he had a pretty good season. So I’m expecting his numbers to improve and we are better positioned to handle his guaranteed DL time with Inglett there to play against right-handers and Bautista around to play against lefties.
Hugo: I am thinking there is a decent chance that Overbay hits lefties better and hits for a little more power this season. It can take a full year or more to recover from a hand injury and get all your strength back, and Lyle was hitting for more power in the second half last season (both his SLG and his ISO-p were about 45 points higher after the break). He never had so much trouble with lefties as last season, so I’m also thinking if his hand is stronger that might help his bat speed, which would help his hitting against lefties. Lyle has a bit of a long swing so he really can’t afford a drop in bat speed. He won’t get back to 2006 levels, but it wouldn’t surprise me too much to see him improve from last season, which wasn’t all that bad – but there is one big factor against his rebounding – his age and comparable players. If his hitting against lefties doesn't improve, a platoon would be a good thing - but we have a lot of lefties who could use a right-handed caddy.
As for Rolen, I was more excited about his September before talking to a few Cards fans who mentioned that he had done the same thing with the Cards in his last 3 years there – his shoulder would get tired, he’d go on the DL, and then he’d return talking about changing his swing and hit like a champ for a little while before his shoulder tired again. It sounds like he made more of an adjustment this year, and I don’t remember him getting a cortisone shot this season (unlike in past seasons with the Cards), which I think is a good sign, but I’m not sure we'll see much of an improvement.
As for Hill, it wouldn’t surprise me if he has a big year. He’s consistently outperformed people’s forecasts of him and was a big part of the Jays’ offense in 2007.
Rincewind: The outfield? Our numbers from our left fielders were awful last year. We had 22 doubles, 11 homers and 53 RBI from that spot. Travis Snyder can’t possibly be worse than that. In center Vernon did quite well other than being injured a lot of the season. Rios didn’t hit at all when he was playing center field. I’m pretty sure that playing center didn’t cause his troubles with the bat, I think it’s more likely he was playing center at the time when he was totally lost at the plate. If Vernon plays anything close to a full season we have better numbers out of CF. And right? When Rios moved to center we were treated to the fun of watching Wilkerson and Mench play right. We won’t have that again. And I’m expecting a big year from Alex, if he hits less than 25 homers this season I’d be surprised. A full year of Cito working with him and we’ll see the Alex Rios we expected last year.
Hugo: Yeah , Wells had a very nice season last year when he was able to swing the bat and it will be a huge boost if he can avoid injury and play like that for a full season. I am a little worried that all those years of running around in centerfield are catching up to the 30-year old, he’s got a big frame to carry around. The wrist injury was obviously a fluke but the hamstring injury could be worrisome if it turns into a nagging thing. I’d put Rios in centerfield about once a week this season to keep Wells’ legs fresh and healthy. As for Rios, if he can just continue what he was doing in the second half of the season in 2008 (.876 OPS after the break, almost entirely a power upgrade), that’ll be perfect. Personally, I like the extra steals too – it gives our offense a little bit of a different dynamic. Not as a substitute for the power of course, but it’s nice to have another arrow in his (and the Jays’) quiver. My guess is Snider will experience his growing pains and have some 3 and 4 K games, but I think he’ll be an upgrade over what we had in left field last season. I also think he’ll catch on quicker than folks might think – it’ll be important for the Jays to stick with him if he goes through a rough streak.
Rincewind: At DH Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs were terrible. Adam Lind had a .792 OPS after Cito gave him a full time job last year. Lind is 25 next year and, though I’m willing to concede that he might not become the player we thought he would, I am expecting a better season from him. He should give us 20 home runs and a .280. I’d like him to walk more but can’t have everything.
Hugo: Lind should be a decent upgrade, I agree. Just being as good as he was last season would be an upgrade over 2008’s DH production, and there are some reasons to think he will improve on that. He’s getting closer to his offensive prime, which means his power is still likely coming on and his walk rates in the minors, while pedestrian, were respectable. If he gets a little more comfortable at the plate and shows some more patience while also adding some pop, he could be a huge asset to the lineup. Left-handed power has been sorely lacking since Stairs lit it up 2 seasons ago.
Rincewind: So yeah I’m sure our offense will be better. I also believe that we will hit better with RISP than last year. I think our troubles with RISP were part bad luck and part a bad hitting philosophy, I’m sure the luck will change and Cito will continue to change how the batters view their at bats. If we don’t score at least 50 more runs than last season it would be a big surprise.
Hugo: Here's the thing. Going into last season, everyone was saying the offense would be better because, well, it just had to be. I wasn't so sure and, as we saw this season, it didn't happen. Some of the disaster seasons we saw in 2007 (Wells, Overbay) rebounded, yes, but we saw Stairs and Thomas fall apart, a parade of horribles in the corner outfield, an awful first half from Rios, and some unexpected injuries to Wells and Hill combine to ruin our offense for the second straight season. This season, I do think we are looking better on paper with more depth (Inglett, Bautista) and some young and hopefully up-and-coming hitters. There are a ton of question marks - if Rios reverts to 1st half 2008 levels, Wells falls off after a strong season last year, Hill can't come back from his injury and Inglett regresses, Lind and Snider don't produce at the major-league level, Rolen's shoulder can't hold up, and the others continue to age, we could actually be worse than last season. Now I don't think all that will happen, but it illustrates how many question marks the offense has going into 2009. If the offense does struggle, at least we can console ourselves that it is Lind and Snider taking, and hopefully learning from, the at-bats, rather than wasting them on people who aren’t part of the team’s plans. I do think the offense will be better, but I think 2008 serves as a cautionary tale.
Here are our past Dangling Conversation installments:
Part 1: Good and Bad of 2008
Part 2: Jays Priorities for the Offseason
Part 3: Should the Jays Rebuild?
Part 4: Who Should Lead Off For the Jays?
Part 5: How Should the Jays Fill Out Their Rotation
Part 6: Can the Jays Complete with Barajas catching and Scutaro at Short?
Part 7: Should the Jays Trade From Their Bullpen?
Part 8: What Should Be Done About the DH Spot?
Part 9: What Should Snider's Role Be?
Part 10: What Can We Expect From Adam Lind This Season?
Part 11: What Jays Farmhands Will Make an Impact This Seasons?
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Rolen in St. Louis
So the Cards fans are basically saying he’s lying when he says it’s the first time he’s changed his swing in his whole major league career? That was the claim last year – that he finally stopped being stubborn and adjusted his swing – for the first time.
Reviewing the game log at BR, I see that in 2007 he had only three instances when he didn’t play more than 2 days in a row (presumably the two day breaks included an off day) – each time for 4 games, and one of those was in the first half of April which we can safely assume wasn’t a shoulder issue. The second time was in the first week of June and probably wasn’t either.
So there was likely only one possible “shoulder-rest” break in 2007 and that was all of 4 days long. So whatever your Cardinal-fan friends told you about 2007, the log doesn’t back it up since he was never on the DL before his season ended in late August.
In 2006, he sat out nine days at the end of April (again, awfully early to be a “tired shoulder”) On one other instance he missed three consecutive days. No missed time, no DL trip, no “illusion recovery”
In 2005 his season ended shortly after the Break, he had one extended stay on the DL before that, from early May to mid-June, as a result of the collusion that caused the shoulder injury initially. From the time he returned from the DL until the All-Star break his OPS was .664. No “hitting like a champ” in sight.
So i’m gonna have to conclude that your friend the Cardinal fan misinformed you.
Take heart, my friend!
if you concluded that, you would be the misinformed one
my mistake about mentioning the DL, it hasn’t always been a factor in his past troubles – the point is that we have heard many times about how Rolen’s shoulder is all better, and it hasn’t been. Yes, it is possible that he adjusted his swing in a way now that his many-times surgically-repaired shoulder will no longer hold him back. It’s also quite possible he rested a tired shoulder and afterwards it felt better enough for him to hit productively for a short period of time. We don’t know because the season ended.
I can’t vouch for my own memory, let alone the memory of a friend, but you are the one who is misinformed if you think Rolen has never had an “illusion recovery.” When Rolen was first injured in May of 2005, he underwent surgery and expected to miss about a month. He returned in about that amount of time, made all the noise about feeling great, and was hitting quite well for oh, about a month until shoulder trouble struck, he hit nothing for about 2 weeks, and then that was it for the season. He returned in 2006 and he had a very good season, but needed cortisone to keep his shoulder going and it still wore down about the time of the playoffs, we remember what happened there. Then, check out this little article from January of 2007 about how Rolen’s shoulder issues are “all in the past” and he is feeling great. That was right before a horrible season resulting in yet another season-ending surgery.
Here’s one of many “Rolen better after cortisone shot” articles.
And here’s one about how Rolen got a cortisone shot in “mid-July” of 2007.
Do you know how Rolen hit for the rest of the month after the cortisone shot? He hit .364/.417/.614. Of course, by a month later, his shoulder was cooked again and that was it for that season – more surgery.
Of course I am not saying that Rolen is lying. Have you ever rehabbed from a serious injury? It’s incredibly frustrating, and yet every time you make an adjustment or clear a hurdle you think this is it, I’m all better. Rolen tried something to save his career and is very excited at the prospect that it might work out. But it hasn’t been tested for long enough to say, one way or the other, whether it will be effective for the long haul. Anyway, one of my points was that if cortisone wasn’t involved this time, that’s a good sign and maybe a very good sign. But we won’t know for sure until we see him in action for an extended period of time.
For what it’s worth, my friend is far from a bitter (towards Rolen) Cards fan – the opposite is true. He actually grew up in the same town as Rolen and, being the same age as Rolen, knew him, even played in some of the same youth leagues. He’s a big fan. He (and I, Rolen is one of my favourite players to watch) would like nothing better than for Scott to have put his shoulder issues in the past. But shutting your eyes to facts doesn’t make them go away.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
According to a post on Royals Review
(http://www.royalsreview.com/2008/12/3/678842/average-woba-by-position) Rolen would need to have a wOBA of.335 and be an average defender to be an average third baseman. Given that his actual wOBA was .350 and he was an above average fielder, perhaps we don’t need to freak out.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
very true
if Rolen plays to how he did last season and is able to stay on the field as much, he’ll be valuable to the team.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
When Rolen was first injured in May of 2005, he underwent surgery and expected to miss about a month. He returned in about that amount of time, made all the noise about feeling great, and was hitting quite well for oh, about a month until shoulder trouble struck, he hit nothing for about 2 weeks, and then that was it for the season
I hesitate to go back and forth on this and sound “aggressive” on the point but I’m a born stickler for this sort of detail. When Rolen came back from the DL in 2005, he had missed, indeed, 38 days. From that point until he was done for the year was another 38 days.
The highest point in his hitting, post surgery (that is – counted from June 18 when he returned until the day his post-surgery OBP peaked) was on July 5th, coming off three consecutive 2-hit games.At the end of that game his OPS over that span (15 games) was .802. Pretty decent but not vintage Scott Rolen.
From that point, over 11 more games, he was 3/38. So two pretty good weeks, roughly, and two bad weeks (ASB included) then he was done.
But he DID NOT sit out an extended period of games (other than the initial recovery time) trying to rest and then return with the illusion that the rest helped. i think a reasonable conclusion re 2005 is that he rushed back from surgery when he wasn’t really ready. I can’t see, with respect, that that has anything to do with the claim that what happened in 2008 was part of a pattern of “apparent” recovery that didn’t last. YES he made happy talk after the surgery but couldn’t endure, but that’s RIGHT after the surgery, not 3 years later.
He returned in 2006 and he had a very good season, but needed cortisone to keep his shoulder going and it still wore down about the time of the playoffs, we remember what happened there
I’m not bothered by the cortisone thing if it holds up but I do remember the playoffs. (which is not to say that a lot of good players haven’t gone cold in the playoffs but it’s a reasonable worry) I would be more likely to say that the stubborn insistence on NOT changing his swing might have contributed to that…or the “gamer” instinct to not rest enough.
Then, check out this little article from January of 2007 about how Rolen’s shoulder issues are "all in the past" and he is feeling great. That was right before a horrible season resulting in yet another season-ending surgery.
Please understand, I’m not taking issue with questioning Rolen’s rhetoric or his ability to fool himself. Heck he said the exact same thing in January of 2008 too. i was referring only and specifically to the implication that he took time off to rest his shoulder during a season and came back from that hitting well enough to make it appear statistically as if he was out of the woods. I make NO counter-claim regarding what Rolen SAYS.
And here’s one about how Rolen got a cortisone shot in "mid-July" of 2007.
Do you know how Rolen hit for the rest of the month after the cortisone shot? He hit .364/.417/.614. Of course, by a month later, his shoulder was cooked again and that was it for that season – more surgery.
But Hugo that only re-enforces my point. Rolen was never a good hitter in 2007 at all, for any isolated period of time after a rest or after a shot or whatever. What you said here is dead on accurate, but it’s NOT supportive of this statement:
his shoulder would get tired, he’d go on the DL rest it or treat it, and then he’d return talking about changing his swing and hit like a champ for a little while before his shoulder tired again
He didn’t, in fact, “hit like a champ” or even hit like a Hilenbrand at any point in 2007 – which was what I was getting at. there’s no pattern – except rushing back from surgery – of his having had difficulty, acting on it with rest or treatment of whatever sort, and then coming back and hitting like Vintage Rolen for a short while before repeating the cycle.
Of course I am not saying that Rolen is lying. Have you ever rehabbed from a serious injury? It’s incredibly frustrating, and yet every time you make an adjustment or clear a hurdle you think this is it, I’m all better.
I confess I think clearly there’s a misunderstanding here. I didn’t ask you if your friend thought Rolen was lying about having recovered. Of course he was sincere about that, or at the least deserves every benefit of doubt. I asked if your friend thought Rolen was lying when he said “this is the first time I’ve changed my swing in my whole major league career” (which is not a direct quote but it’s very close). I have no problem agreeing that a player can easily fool himself about the success of a recovery.
Rolen tried something to save his career and is very excited at the prospect that it might work out. But it hasn’t been tested for long enough to say, one way or the other, whether it will be effective for the long haul.
Agreed. That truth was never in dispute. And to repeat, I’m not putting ANY stock in what Role SAYS because he has every incentive to delude himself. My remarks were ONLY about what can be found on the stat sheet. My reply was focused on a very narrow point. what I said does nothing to mitigate the possibility Rolen is fooling himself, or that the adjustment might not make a difference over the course of the season.
That wasn’t what I was saying at all. i was ONLY speaking to the idea that there was a pattern of events like those which happened in the second half of 2008. It seems to me that each of the last four seasons have a wholly different pattern from each other. Making that observation is NOT being a pollyanna about Rolen’s September and what it means for 2009.I admit that
I DO “assume health” for every player who doesn’t have an ongoing injury (even players on opposing teams) but that doesn’t mean I am not VERY aware that Rolen hasn’t proven he can endure at a high level over a full season (and post-season). More to the point – that wasn’t the thinking that led me to question whether or not there was a pattern.
For what it’s worth, my friend is far from a bitter (towards Rolen) Cards fan – the opposite is true
For what it’s worth, I did not assume so. I am familiar with the tendency of fans to misremember past events in relation to player’s past performance (you know the sort – who think that Overbay has always had issues with GIDP because they saw so many in 2008 (for examle)? They are not being insincere, they are just relying on the most unreliable source there is – human memory) and the only assumption I made is that your friend was (rightfully) so frustrated with Rolen’s injuries that he was misremembering what actually happened. Certainly I assumed no malice nor meant any in return.
fair points all
and I apologize for the semi-freak out.
But I think the point still stands about Rolen, and I say that because in many ways cortisone is just a substitute for rest. Rolen was getting those cortisone shots to clear up inflammation that would otherwise take time and rest to clear up. The reason it didn’t work was because there was something underlying about the shoulder injury beyond just localized inflammation. It really is just a substitute for rest.
For example, If you look at the mid July cortisone shot in 2007, he OPSed .826 after it, including the 1.031 he OPS’ed for the two weeks after the shot (which is what stuck in mind of my friend and that at least certainly constitutes “hitting like a champ”). Last year after his DL stint, he OPSed .877. The situations aren’t identical, but they’re not totally dissimiliar either.
Now I have no idea if Rolen every talked about changing his swing or not beyond what I heard from a friend. I don’t know if it was in a published article, or something Rolen or La Russa mentioned to an announcer during a broadcast one day, or if my friend is misremembering. I am a huge fan of stats and detail as well. However, when you’re talking about another team, it is also worth it, in my opinion, to pay attention to someone who watches every game of that team and follows the team day-to-day. Similarly, we know things about the Jays one couldn’t learn from looking at game logs. In my job, you often find yourself with the need to educate yourself about something in detail very quickly – personally, I enjoy that. But you also need to understand the limits of that kind of learning and know when to call in someone who has dealt with the issue on a day to day basis for years. I certainly agree, though, that the memory of a fan is a tricky thing! But so is a player’s perception about his own injury – I’m only saying that just because Rolen says this was the first modification of his swing doesn’t make it so – and I have to admit that with everyone I know about baseball, I find it hard to believe Rolen could endure the surgeries, struggling seasons, etc for the three years prior and never modify his swing until 2008.
Anyway, your points are well taken — there are some things about the last part of 2008 that appear different from past years. Certainly each year has followed a different trajectory. My point is that there are also some things that are the same, and only one of the years has been anywhere close to Rolen pre-injury.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Yeah…the shots are a different thing. If that had been in the original conversation (instead of trips to the DL) I probably wouldn’t have replied. I don’t know of any way to pin down precisely when all he had a shot in order to see how the peaks and valleys of his performance line up. In fact, I’d be much more curious if he had any, and how many, and how it affected his play, in 2006 when he appeared to be having a relatively normal season.
right, I should've been much more precise
I don’t know how many he had, I do remember him getting one just before/during the NLDS that year.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
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