There is No Sunken Treasure Rumored to Be: Looking Behind the Rockies' Trade for Jason Marquis
As we know, the Cubs and Rockies have agreed to a trade by which the Rockies are receiving pitcher Jason Marquis.
According to this story from our friend Joel Sheman, the Rockies wanted to trade for Jason Marquis because:
Marquis is among the majors' best hitting pitchers and Rockie officials think that will give him a distinct advantage in the offensive haven that is Coors Field.
Hmmm. More of an advantage than, say, pitching well? Marquis had a good season with the bat last year, OPSing .598, which was well above his career number of .533. That was worth about -4 batting runs to the Cubs. Jeff Suppan was almost exactly an average hitting picher, and put up a .349 OPS last season in 3 fewer plate appearances than Marquis. Suppan was worth -8.3 batting runs to the Brewers. So between Marquis and the average hitting pitcher, you've got about 4.3 runs in difference, or almost half a win over a full season of plate appearances. I wouldn't exactly call that a "distinct advantage" considering Marquis will be taking his sub-5 K/9 and terrible 1.30 K/BB ratios to Coors field, which isn't known for helping pitchers who put the ball in play. Marquis is no longer anything resembling a groundball pitcher, so that won't help him either. Throw in the fact that he will be blocking pitchers (Franklin Morales, Greg Smith, Greg Reynolds, Jorge De La Rosa) who are as good or better than him and much younger and cheaper. Not exactly worth the $9 million the Rockies will be paying him (though they did clear Luis Vizcaino's salary out of the deal).
Thanks to Wilco's amazing song Sunken Treasure off their double album Being There, which is both my favorite Wilco record and my favourite Peter Sellars' Sellers movie.
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Seems to be a stupid reason to sign a pitcher....
For a guy that’s really only had one season where he was much better than average and that was 5 years ago.
I’d forgotten about Being There….have to search it down, is somewhere in the house, that was great music.
by Tom Dakers on Jan 3, 2009 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Being There
It can’t possibly be better than Yankee Hotel or Ghost, can it?
by oc on Jan 3, 2009 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Being There first.....
But wouldn’t claim to be a great music critic.
by Tom Dakers on Jan 3, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
very different
Yankee Hotel Foxtrot is pretty great, when it came out it was my favourite, but now that some time has passed I think Being There has worn a little better. Ghost is Born wasn’t bad at all but was a little uneven, I’d rank it in the middle somewhere. After Being There I like Summerteeth, actually, that’s got some unbelievable songs on it, and then Yankee Hotel Foxtrot. The first Mermaid Avenue record was also great.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Jan 3, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sellars' best work was "The Lighthouse"
but he’s kind of gone downhill since then, I saw the Met’s production of Dr. Atomic (which Sellars directed and wrote the libretto too) last week (on PBS) and was disappointed, particularly by the tired stereotype of a Native American wise-woman in a 19th-century Buffalo Bill costume warning of the moral cost of building an A-bomb. Oh wait, you’re talking about the other one.., Sellers with an “e”. Yeah, Being There was great, I also like The Party for some of his best slapstick despite playing another unfortunate ethnic stereotype.
At any rate, Marquis doesn’t block anybody or at least not for long enough that it will make much of a difference. Smith’s not likely to be much, if at all, better as a starter, although he does also hit pretty well. De La Rosa will likely beat the rest of the competition for one starter slot along with Marquis for the other one, leaving Jason Hirsh, Greg Reynolds and Morales in AAA with Smith seemingly poised for a move to the bullpen. The thing is though, if any of that group are showing skills much beyond a fifth starter caliber, they will bump Marquis on to another destination.
The Rockies got Marquis to provide a stable baseline of performance at the bottom of their rotation, and for depth. Because Reynolds, Hirsh and Morales weren’t as ready as the Rockies thought in 2008, the team wound up having to go to Mark Redman and Livan Hernandez for 17 starts. Marquis isn’t great, but is he better than those two? I’d say so. In fact, there hasn’t been a better fifth starter in the NL over the last two seasons, regardless of the fact that the Cubs originally signed him to be more than that. Is he worth the $5 million premium on the Rockies prior salary level? Probably not, but not having to live through more of the torture we had to witness at the bottom of our rotation last season makes it feel like it’s almost worth it to me. Moving to Coors Field from Wrigley is only a slight downgrade for pitchers who let a lot of balls put into play, and is actually an improvement in conditions when it comes to giving up HR’s. Marquis’ GB rates were 16th best among qualified starters in the NL last season, 26th best in the majors, I think that still qualifies at least as something “resembling a groundball pitcher”.
Finally, as for his hitting, while he’s only a half win above an average pitcher, he represents almost a full win over an average Rockies pitcher in 2008, and a lineup projection with him gives the Rockies a little over 5.25 runs in his starts, compared to 4.95 were he to hit like our pitchers did last season. That’s a pretty important add-on for a player that figures on giving up somewhere around that location on the other side of things.
I understand where you are coming from. In the AL East or any other American League team, adding Marquis couldn’t really be construed as a positive, but in the NL West, where rotations are top heavy and lack depth, specifically Colorado, where free agent pitchers will only sign as a last resort, we take our upgrades where we can find them. Marquis figures to be a mediocrity at the bottom of the Rockies rotation, but mediocrity is all that’s required in this division.
by Rox Girl on Jan 6, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ouch! Schooled on baseball and movies in the same comment!
Many really excellent points -
You have a good point on the groundball issue – Marquis does still get grounders more than the average starter, but not at the same rate he once did. It would have been more accurate to say he still exhibits groundball tendencies but not extreme ones. Last season he was between Brett Myers and C.C. Sabathia with a groundball-flyball rate of 1.46.
Marquis isn’t bad and definitely does provide a stable baseline of performance, as you say, though the Rockies arguably attained that without Jason – through some acquisitions and some pitchers progressing. Although it’s highly likely that one of the starters you and I have mentioned would be as good or better than Marquis for less money, the Rockies might suffer some poor starts figuring out which one of them it would be so there’s value in that. There are much worse things a team in a weak division can do with $5 million (since they unloaded Vizcaino in the deal) than shoring up the back of its rotation so I don’t think it’s a terrible move for the Rox, necessarily. At the very least, you won’t have to suffer through any Josh Towers performances, haha. I was more responding to the idea that his hitting was a major consideration for the Rockies. His hitting certainly can’t hurt, though color me skeptical that it will help much.
As a side note – I had no idea Ubaldo was so bad with the bat last season! Maybe Marquis can teach him a thing or two about hititng.
You’ll have to forgive us Jays’ fans – we can’t sign anyone so all we can do is talke potshots teams who are actually spending money to improve their teams…
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Jan 6, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, our front office has a tendency of trying to be too eager to please...
in giving platitudes to the fanbase and frequently will stretch in their justifications for certain moves, even if the logic behind them is alright. Our media too, for that matter, as a case in point would be “”http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2009/01/05/marquis-could-be-a-hit-redding-remains-in-mix/" >He’s a winner, having gone to the playoffs every season of his career." that my co-blogger commented on this morning. The inane PR spin aside, the move should be of some benefit to the Rockies for next season. I remember the Rockies talking about Livan’s hitting in the same way when they picked him up off waivers last season, but that was a case where scoring 5 and a quarter runs wasn’t going to help when the pitcher was giving up 8 plus.
And yes, Ubaldo’s that bad with the bat or worse. He’s got one of the most awkward looking swings I’ve ever seen, including when I played in little league. It’s such a surprise when he gets it out of the infield, that all three times it happened last year (out of 46 balls in play) he reached base, twice by single, once on an error. So if Marquis can impart any wisdom at all, it would be very much appreciated.
by Rox Girl on Jan 6, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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