Community Player Projections, Starting Pitchers Redux

by Tom Dakers on Jan 27, 2009 1:03 AM EST

It seems the over whelming opinion is that we were too optimistic with our original projections so we'll try these revised guesses and see what people think.

Innings ERA

Doc            220     3.30
Litsch          180       4.10
Purcey           160         4.60
Dustin           120         4.20
Janssen       130             4.20
Clement      30         5.50
Richmond    30    5.00
Romero    30              5.50
Cecil               50              3.90

With what JP said at the season ticket holder's meeting about Janssen I almost feel we should up his number of innings, but let's wait till closer to the season. I have doubts now that Clement will pitch at all for us, but let's leave him in. Dropped 10 innings from Doc even though I'd bet, with Cito as manager, he'll be in the 250 range. Took a few innings from everybody and gave them to Cecil who wasn't included before. Again, from what JP said, I think it's likely we'll see him this season. Pushed just about everybody's ERA a little, McGowan more than a little.

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If McGowan and Janssen

put up those numbers, I will be ecstatic. Not that I think they can’t do it, just that it will be great to see them return and pitch effectively.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 27, 2009 12:31 PM EST reply actions

It is a definite possibility

Although labrum surgury usually means a loss of some control, and a higher BB total… let’s hope for the best, which I believe is better than projected above, especially for Purcey.

by Andy Mc on Jan 27, 2009 12:48 PM EST reply actions

surgury...lol

by Andy Mc on Jan 27, 2009 12:49 PM EST reply actions

Since these projections are supposed to be defense-independent

how much do we assume we should take off for our defense being good? Half a run per game?

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Jan 27, 2009 2:25 PM EST reply actions

you know, it's hard to say

Marcum and Litsch had ERAs significantly better than their FIPs last season (a full run and 3/4 of a run, respectively), while Doc’s ERA was 1/4 run better. The other starters, Richmond, Purcey, McGowan, and Burnett, had ERAs higher than their fielding-independent numbers would suggest.

In fact, as a team, the Jays FIP was almost exactly the same as their ERA (3.79 and 3.72, respectively), so it’s hard to draw much of a conclusion based on that.

Probably a better way to answer your question would be to take the tRA of each pitcher last year and compare it to their actual RA (ERA but including unearned runs). I wouldn’t put much stock in the predictive value going forward for each player, but there might, or might not, be a teamwide trend. That probably merits its own post, though.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 27, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions

by the way

for purposes of the community projections thing Beyond the Box Score is doing, each fielder gets his own rating in wins above replacement and that factors into the overall team projection, so we won’t be scaling down each pitcher’s performance to account for the Jays defense.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jan 27, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

Not in these projections

My point is just that if our D saves half a run per game, this set of starters would give us 950 innings of 3.63 ERA. All our starters from 2008 gave us 1021 innings of 3.72 ERA.

"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"

by Torgen on Jan 27, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

With a full season of Cito as manager.....even win a starters that aren't as good....

I’d think we’d get 1000 innings out of the starts.

I don’t know how much more I’d want to raise the ERAs…..lets move on to the other spots…and come back to starters after. Can compare the what we expect the defense to be like compared to what it was last year.

by Tom Dakers on Jan 27, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions