Discussion Time: DH
by Matty Gaul on Jan 5, 2009 6:39 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintAs Tom and Hugo pointed out earlier today, two of the options the Jays had for DH signed with other teams today, with Pat Burrell signing with the Rays for two years and $16 million, and Milton Bradley inking with the Cubs at three years and $30 million. In my personal opinion, DH is one of the most important pieces in the Jays lineup, especially if Wells can't hit 30 homeruns, or Rios can't hit 25+ HR. They need some offensive power to fill that spot in the middle of the lineup. It doesn't sound like Riccardi is willing to try and sign Manny Ramirez, so what would you guys do? To be honest, I would sign Manny. He may not be a Gold-Glove outfielder, but he wouldn't be playing in LF, he'd be DHing. Also, Manny is one of the more popular players in the MLB, which could fill some seats at the Rogers Center. And I'm pretty sure the Jays Manager Cito Gaston could control Manny. Joe Torre could control him, Terry Francona couldn't. Maybe Manny respects more seasoned managers. Who knows? You're never sure with Manny.
So post your thoughts here. What should the Jays do with their open DH position? Sign Manny? Sign another free agent? Promote someone within to DH? It's your call, guys.
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I'm with you, I'd sign Manny
I can’t see how he wouldn’t pay out in ticket sales. I would think 3 years of $20 million would get him. And we would suddenly be thought of as a contender.
Barring that, I’d see if the Rangers would take BJ for Blalock.
We wouldn't be thought of as a contender if the Yankees wore our uniforms
Manny would put us to at least (expected) 95 wins, which would make us a contender, and that’s better than being thought of as a contender any day.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
If we could really get
Manny for 3 and $20 per, that’s what I would want to do as well. Tough to go more than 3 years guaranteed, but Manny would be a transformational force for the Jays’ offense. If we were able to clear a little salary, it wouldn’t cost the Jays much more than they were willing to spend on Burnett and would be more of an upgrade. Even if Manny didn’t put the Jays over the top in 2009, he would still be productive in 2010 which is looking like a very good year for our pitching.
It’s a big financial risk, but if Manny and the Jays are playing well, and there’s every reason to believe they would be, I agree it could pay for itself.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Hey people!
Is Gregg Zaun worth a contract?
Sorry about the leave, but I never took the time to check back on here.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
Probably not
His bat was pretty bad when he was full time, and if he’s ever caught a knuckler it wasn’t in the last 4 years.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
The Jays should offer Zaun a contract...
but to become the new colour man on Sportsnet. I thought he was great as the in-studio analyst during the playoffs this year, and even if he proven to not be up to Buck Martinez standards, he would certainly be a step up from Tabler/Mulliniks/Barfield.
I like that idea a lot
too bad the Jays and Zaun have had such a falling out. There was a time where it was easy to see him in the booth or coaching a minor league affiliate when his playing days were over. Perhaps it will still happen though.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Hmm... that'd be an interesting jump.
Don’t the bigger names usually take those jobs immediately to continue making money based on their success in the past? Seems more like something Manny would do, if he could speak English well enough to communicate his thoughts to the American public. Maybe he could work for Telemundo or a similar network if they began to carry games.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
Zaun has some experience as a talking head
He was an analyst during the playoffs a while back.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
Burrell
I thought right from the start they should have made a play for Burrell. He is a very solid player but hey we may as well face him in the AL east as well. One more thing: World Junior Champs again! Wait to go boys!
Well Manny is the best hitter currently available, so he’d obviously be the best option. And while the Jays are at it, they might as well sign Derek Lowe and Ben Sheets to round out the rotation.
Of course, the Jays won’t sign Lowe or Sheets, nor will they sign Manny. The Jays payroll is set at about $84 million and it won’t be going much higher, so any discussion about signing a player for $20 million per year is pointless: it won’t be happening. Quite simply, the Jays cannot afford that much money and will not pay that much for Manny, or anyone else on the FA market.
In fact, the Rays got a great deal in Burrell at $8 mil per year for two years, and dollar-for-dollar, it’s a very wise deal. I would have prefered Burrel (and the extra 12 million to use on someone else) than Manny. Burrell’s good to hit .255, 30 HR and 90 RBI. Milton Bradley is a bit more a question mark at $10 mil per year for three years. If he’s healthy (mentally and physically), he has the POTENTIAL to hit .290, 20 HR and 85 RBI.
These deals should set the market price for quality hitters, such as Giambi (who is good for .250, 30 HR and 100 RBI) and Anderson (good for .290, 15 HR and 85 RBI). In fact, if you’re willing to sign Manny (and his drama) at 20 mill per season, I think that both Giambi AND Anderson could be signed for a similar price.
Manny is the best single hitter, but for roughly 20 million (or slightly more), a team can do a lot better. As far as the Jays go, it won’t be happening unless they get a great deal just before spring training.
At the present time, the Jays are more likely to sign someone like Richie Sexson to a minor league deal.
Bradley
http://44north.mlblogs.com/
what do you do with Giambi and Anderson? they're both lefthanded.
I’d rather have Manny, there’s only one DH spot and he’s a much better hitter than either of those two. The advantage of going with Giambi is that you can probably get him on a 1 or 2 year deal. I wouldn’t go near Anderson, I’d sign Alou first.
Also, Bradley and Burrell have already signed, so talking about signing them as better options is certainly no less “pointless” than talking about signing someone who you believe the Jays have no chance of signing. I agree the Jays’ signing Manny is extremely unlikely, but they could sign him, and I think they should, so to me that is worth talking about. I also agree that the Rays got a great deal on Burrell. I know it is frustrating that the Jays seem unwilling to open the bank right now, but that doesn’t mean it’s useless to talk about moves that we think would improve the team. We’re analyzing baseball from the point of view of our favourite team, not trying to predict the future.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
We were willing to pay AJ $15 million
$5 million more for someone that would be worth 10 wins to us seems like a bargain. Sign him and trade Ryan, we would have a lower payroll than we would have had if AJ stayed and a better team. Add in with the press we’ve been getting we can’t be selling a heck of a lot of tickets at the moment. You don’t think signing Manny would boost season tickets sales? Sign him and trade.
Manny carried a poor Dodger team into the playoffs.
Apparently...
The Cardinals are in the market for a closer…BJ Ryan for Rick Ankeil or Ryan Ludwick wouldn’t be a bad move…Jays actually get a DH/OF and save $
Assuming the Cards were willing to deal, which would you prefer?
Ludwick is righty and has always hit for power. His line drive and Hr/Flyball rates shot up last year though. His walk rates are solid and he looks like an acceptable fielder who had a bad season last year. Interestingly, he had trouble hitting lefties for most of his career but did equally well against lefties and righties last season. He turns 31 in July and is arbitration-eligible for the first time.
Ankiel, of course, is lefty. He surprised more people in 2009 with his ability to reach base than his power, which he’s always shown. Ludwick was the better hitter last season but the Cards might be more willing to deal Ankiel, who will be a free agent after 2009. Ankiel won’t be as inexpensive as Ludwick but will still be a bargain at maybe $3 million.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I'd take either...
especially if it meant St Louis eating Ryan’s contract.
This assumes that JP is allowed to free up payroll to sign one player by trading another
If ownership would just pocket the BJ Ryan money too then there’s not much JP can do but stand pat.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
In bringing up Burrell and Bradley, I was trying to point out what the market is and what $20 million can get you this offseason. The recent signing of Jason Giambi for about $4 million is further proof. Sinking $20 million into Manny is questionable at the best of times, but with quality slugger signing for as low as what they have been, spending that much on Manny just isn’t worth it in my opinion.
That said, if money weren’t an option, then getting a .300+ hitter with 40 HR power would be a high priority.
Bradley
http://44north.mlblogs.com
The Rays already proved that a team that should win 92 games can win the AL East
so of course the Jays would be able to win the East with Manny.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
I would love Rocco on the Jays
a lot of teams seem interested, though
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
no one mentioned Abreu
he wouldn’t be such a bad option if we could get him on a two-year deal. He was a type A free agent I believe, but because the Yankees didn’t offer him arbitration he won’t cost a draft pick. At DH we wouldn’t have to worry about his lousy defense.
While his walk rate has declined a lot since joining the Yanks, he still walks quite a bit and put up good on-base numbers. I don’t think there’s a ton of upside left, but he seems likely to give you .350/.450 at a bare minimum, and that would make him one of the better hitters on the Jays. While he is terrible in the outfield, he is great at staying on the field, having had 11 straight seasons of more than 150 games. And he certainly gives you a little more on the basepaths than a Manny, Burrell, or Giambi type DH would.
I know he is asking a lot right now (3 years, $48 million), but I can’t imagine anyone is going to give that to him, especially because 3 of his suitors -the Cubs, Rays, and A’s, appear to be out of the market. We might be able to get him in a good deal for the Jays, and he wouldn’t be a terrible bat to add and has certainly had a consistently good career.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Adam Dunn
He’s a FA…he’s a big time power bat good for 40HR and 100RBI and gets on base at a great clip…he’s left handed which would split up the middle of the order nice and he can play LF, 1B and DH…There hasn’t been a lot of interest in him this off season so he could be had probably for around $8-$10M on a two year deal…
OH WAIT!!!! JP publicly insulted the guy last season there’s no chance in hell he’d ever play here, way to go JP!!!!
I think in another tread I suggest that if we said we were very sorry....
and if we were the only team to offer him a contract he might take it.
For several million a year I’d accept an apology.
Dear Adam Dunn,
I’m really sorry for saying you’re a worthless baseball player. I actually think you’re worth about $8M a year for 2 years would you like to take me up on that offer?
Your Buddy,
JP
PS I probably won’t be here for the 2nd year of your 2 year deal so you’d only have to put up me for 1 year.
Works for me....
But then if you offered me $16 million for the next two years for anything, I’d give you the right to call me worthless on a weekly bases.
p.p.s.
I plan on telling reporters that I talked to you on the phone and you agreed to the deal regardless of what you say, so you might as well go with it
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Jan 6, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Instead of just saying +1
you can give an actual +1 by clicking Rec under Actions.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on Jan 6, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If he'd rather retire than take a one year deal for a few mil for JP
then more power to him.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
somehow
I don’t think those will be his only options
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
If there's more bats than teams that need bats
then someone’s going to have those options, right?
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
yes, I think so
Just don’t think it will be Dunn.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Right
But it’s pointless to talk about how much we’d like a specific player unless it’s notorious slugger Whoever’s Left.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
Discussion
Great discussion, guys! It’s a great read. I probably won’t have a post up today, but check back tomorrow for a post. Keep the discussion flowing.
Also, what about taking a chance with Andruw Jones?
Matty Gaul
Toronto Blue Jays Beat Writer
Email: mattygaul34@hotmail.com
Phone: 902-840-0905 (Text only, please.)
Website: www.bluebirdbanter.com
Hell no
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
no way
I’d bring back Frank first.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
How about Kenny Lofton in left and moving Lind to DH?
Sure, Lofton just sat for a year, but let’s face it, Andruw might as well have, and at least Lofton would give us a leadoff hitter with speed, which would come in handy. Not to suggest that Lofton is higher on my list than Dunn, Manny, Rocco, et al, but he’s definitely above Jones.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
Money Tree?
If you guys would sign Manny, then I guess that means you’re growing a money tree in your backyard. In case you haven’t been paying attention, THE JAYS CAN NOT AFFORD MANNY. What do you think JP’s been saying for 2 months? So no, if you were JP you would NOT sign Manny, because you would not have the money to do it.
As long as Boras overplays his hand
there’s a chance Manny will be the only one left without a dance partner, and if that happens then the price for him will come way down, because he’s not some high school prospect who can take a year off holding out for more money like so many of Boras’s other clients. If the Dodgers move on to Rocco, Abreu, or Dunn, then who’s in the Manny market? The Yanks would have to find a taker for Matsui or Damon, and at the prices free agents have been signing for they’d have to eat some money, which would make it hard to keep their payroll lower than last year like they’ve been claiming they would.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
why can't they afford Manny?
we’ve been over this a bunch in the thread already but….
a) they were willing to spend $15 million plus on AJ
b) they could trade Ryan and his $10 million
c) if they want more than that they could move Overbay
Manny would get some good press for the team which would drive some ticket sales. They really do need some godo news to get some tickets sold, have you noticed the press they have been getting. Ask the Dodgers how much money Manny made for them. He’d be worth at least 10 wins compared to what we have at DH last year.
And telling us that JP ‘has been saying’ something means nothing to me. If you haven’t noticed, when JP’s lips are moving, that means he is lying.
the Jays
can sign whoever they want. it might be a good idea fiscally to do so, because it will put the team’s payroll over its expected income, but they could do it. Of course, in this case I do think there’s an argument that it does make fiscal sense, so if I were JP I would be advocating strongly to ownership to do it. If I were ownership, I’d say yes. JP might make the strongest case possible to ownership and they could say no. In my opinion that would be illogical but it would be through no fault of JP. But to say that the Jays “can’t” sign Manny doesn’t really make any sense. Maybe they won’t, because they think it’s a bad idea. If that’s the case, I think they’re wrong.
The fact that Rogers Corp. is publicly traded does put something of a wrench in the plans. Ownership can’t just spend and spend into the red hoping that the team will make the money back in ticket sales eventually because they have an obligation to shareholders. But as others pointed out, the Jays could make it work by trading other assets.
I’m not saying that it would be easy for the Jays to sign Manny, and they could do everything right and still not be able to. That would be through no fault of theirs. But after last year’s team, it really doesn’t make sense, economic or baseball-wise, to go into the year without even trying to sign him or another big bat.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
If Manny still plans on making $20 million, he’s either a) crazy or b) destined to NOT end up in a Jays uniform. The recent Giambi signing at $4 million indicates the even with a lack of quality slugger available, the price isn’t going through the roof. Obviously Manny will make a lot more than Giambi, but, in my opinion, for a team to throw $20 million at a guy like Manny when Burrell is making $8 mil and Giambi is making $4 mil is either crazy or desperate. Of course, there are plenty of owners and GMs who are crazy and/or desperate. The best thing about the Jays penny pinching is that there’s no way we spend 20 million on Manny
Bradley
http://44north.mlblogs.com
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