"The Twins Way"

by Tom Dakers on Oct 11, 2009 10:54 PM EDT in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

I hope Richard Griffin and Ken Fidlin, who each wrote about how the Jays should do things 'the Twins way' in the past week, were watching the Twins/Yankee game tonight.

The each made a big deal about how the Twins win with fundamentals, they don't make mistakes and how they can win with a low payroll. Well for the second time in three games a stupid base running mistake cost them a chance at a game. In the 8th inning tonight, Twins down by a run, Nick Punto leads off with a double. Denard Span gets an infield single to Derek Jeter, but Jeter, noticing Span rounded third hard, threw home, Jorge Posada threw to ARod at third and Punto was tagged out. A stupid base running mistake.

But, of course, the Twins wouldn't do something like that, just the Jays.

Yes folks, fundamentals are important, but all teams drill them into their minor leaguers, unfortunately sometimes people do make mistakes, all teams do, not just our Jays.

And what Griffin and Fidlin won't tell you is that the Jays play the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays 18 times each a season while the Twins play them 6 or 7 times a year. The Twins were 2-4 vs. the Red Sox, 2-3 vs. the Orioles, 0-7 vs. the Yankees, 3-3 vs. the Rays and 3-5 against the Jays for a 10-23 record against the teams the Jays play the most. Do these guys really think the Twins would be in the playoffs if they were in the AL East.

While the Jays against the AL Central, where the Twins get to play most of their games were 6-1 vs. the White Sox, 4-4 vs. the Indians, 5-3 vs. the Tigers, 3-4 vs. the Royals and 5-3 vs. the Twins for a 23-15 record against the AL Central.

Which one is the better team?

But we should copy them. This is a plan. I think the thing we really should copy from the Twins is to play in the AL Central.

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MMmm that is some good ol fashioned hating Tom
Preach On! Preach On!

I mayyyyyy be drunk at the moment… or at the very least tipsy.

I moved into the Angels game thread today and that thing was massive. I mean I thought the Leafs GDT were big with new threads every period or more often, But the Angels thread was up to 200 comments before the top half of the first was done. It panned out and being in the 5th thread before the game ended, although it could have gone six, I just doubt anyone there was really caring about the thread count at that point.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Oct 11, 2009 11:32 PM EDT reply actions

On a completely unrelated side note,
Over 4000 comments on Bluebird Banter Woo!

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Oct 11, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm with you here Tom

We trade ourselves into the AL Central and guarantee ourselves a playoff berth most seasons. God I hate the Yankees and Red Sox.

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby

by wroth91 on Oct 12, 2009 9:04 PM EDT reply actions

I wonder if we could make the Pirates switch to the American League, and then swap out of the AL East with them? Or if those rumours that there’s going to be a big push for an expansion team in South Carolina have even the slightest hint of truth to them?

Where would be good markets for new expansion teams? Off the top of my head, I’d say Charlotte, maybe Portland, Nashville or Newark? At least two of those possibilities might be enough to get us out of the AL East.

by dexfarkin on Oct 13, 2009 9:46 AM EDT reply actions

I imagine the first two are most likely

Living in New Jersey, I haven’t really heard much about Newark being in the running for a club. Given the support northern New Jersey gives to the Devils (Rangers fans outweigh Devils fans around me), I’d be hesitant to start an expansion MLB club there. If people voluntarily throw their support behind a worse hockey team that plays farther away from there, why wouldn’t they continue to throw their support behind the better baseball team?

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Oct 13, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Hockey and baseball support are different things though. The metropolition region around NYC is just so massive, it could easily support a third team. Especially if someone was smart and built a ‘working class’ stadium that really maximized moderately priced seating. There’s a lot of negative backlash I’m hearing from Yankees and Mets fans feeling completely priced out of seeing live baseball.

by dexfarkin on Oct 13, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

The Twins probably didn’t deserve to be in the ALDS and certainly didn’t even deserve to win a single game – their fundamentals execution was painful to watch.

But still I think the vitriol against the Twins columns is a little over-the-top… The Jays would be better off doing things the “Twins’ way” – but with the $20 to $30 more in payroll that they have had the last few seasons. The Twins are known for their execution, and I think their performance was out of character. I stand to be corrected on this one. The other thing about the Twins’ way is contracts – and I don’t think Ryan would have wasted money the way JP did.

by G Man on Oct 13, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

no 'vitriol' against the twins....

but suggesting they are a better team is just silly. If they were in the AL East they would finish behind us each year.

They are known for the execution cause no one that writes for the national media watches them so they have to say something, give some reason why a really average team makes the playoffs, instead of saying ’aren’t they lucky to be in a division with such lousy teams’.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 13, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey Tom,
Maybe the vitriol was more in response to comments on other blogs; I find you are always fair and balanced – sorry for poor choice of word.

I don’t agree with your comment about why the Twins are known for execution. Whenever I have seen them play, except for their last 4 games, I have been impressed with their execution – I do think there’s something to it.

Anyway, my point is that I think responding to the argument that the Jays should be more like the Twins by saying the Twins are just lucky to be in the Central is a bit of a diversion. The Jays have a higher payroll than the Twins; if they had spent this money better the extra money might compensate for the difference between divisions. It’s impossible to know, but I don’t think it can be argued that pretty bad money and contract decisions have been made.

Wells vs Hunter is a bit of a case in point. If you take Wells’ contract out of the Jays’ payroll, that would leave the Jays about $40 million extra payroll room to what the Twins have. The Twins let Hunter walk; the Jays significantly overpaid.

I also don’t think it’s honest to blame this on Godfrey. Don’t get me wrong, Godfrey was an unmitigated disaster. But if he was involved in the Wells contract, it was by saying to JP, “get this guy signed” – he wasn’t, however, the one that structured the contract, that is on JP’s head (with an assist to AA?).

Also look at the difference between the Santana and Halladay situations.

Being like the Twins is not just about execution. It’s also not just about being cheap, cause the Jays are not cheap. But if you have $80 million and you’re in the AL East, you have to spend your money more wisely than the Yanks and Red Sox. That’s all.

by G Man on Oct 13, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

The Halladay/Santana situation is actually a terrible example

Consider this:

In 2008, the Twins missed the playoffs by half of a game (lost their play-in game). If they had held onto Santana, they almost assuredly would have made the playoffs in 2008 (he was worth 4.8 wins according to Fangraphs), and they could have let him walk after that offseason (and received two comp picks instead of Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra). Say one of those picks becomes as valuable as either Gomez. They would have have made the playoffs and the only thing they’d be missing seems like a Guerra-type prospect, Jon Rauch (Mulvey and Rauch were essentially exchanged off waivers) and having to pay Santana’s salary for 2008.

Would you be happy if this happened to the Jays?

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Oct 13, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Is tough for me to tell how good the Twins are at

fundamentals since I don’t see them play at that much and course we see every game the Jays play so we know every mistake they make and we remember it. The Twins might be great, but really all teams teach guys how to play right in the minors, I wouldn’t

I thought the Twins got hosed on the Santana trade, so that might not be the one to point too, also if the Twins hadn’t traded Santana they would have made the playoffs last year. Is a tough thing picking the moment to trade a guy, in the East, stakes are higher, you can’t trade offf guys that might be the difference because everything has to go right to win. If we trade Doc for 4 good players we can’t contend until or unless they turn out.

But then you are right, you have to pick the right ones to offer contracts too. We’ll see with Mauer coming up on free agency. If I was a Twin fan I’d be sad if they let him walk.

Twins can trade Santana for nothing and still win because they are competing with teams that are terrible.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 13, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Sigh

I’ve said this a million times. You cannot be successful playing “the Twins way” in the AL East. And to suggest “if the Twins can do it, the Jays should be able to do it” is just ridiculous. Once the Twins play 50% of their games against NYY/BOS/TB/BAL instead of DET/CHW/KC/CLE we can talk about whether or not “the Twins way” works. Because I’m fairly certain the Jays could have been at LEAST as competitive as the Twins just were against the Yankees…and this was hardly an example of a competitive Jays team this year.

by Jevant on Oct 13, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions

That is not what I'm trying to say

If the “Twins way” means sound execution of fundamentals – whether the Twins are actually the personification of this or not – then of course that is something to aspire to, no?

If the “Twins way” (or A’s way?) means moving players at the height of their value in order keep stocked up, then is not a model the Jays should emulate given they won’t match the Yankees and Red Sox in payroll?

The argument is not whether the Jays would won a division title in the Central or the Twins would have failed in the East, nor is it about doing a direct comparison (as Tom did) of the teams Toronto and Minnesota have fielded, it is about whether there is a better model than the one the Jays have pursued the last 8 years and whether this model may lead to more favourable results for the Jays – yes, in the East – going forward.

As I said, it’s almost impossible to know, but certainly if moving players at the height of their value or cheaping out rather than signing your GG center fielder is the “Twins way”, then I do think the Jays may have had better results the last 3 to 4 seasons, especially when you add in the fact that they have had more payroll to play with than Minnesota and misspent every extra dollar.

by G Man on Oct 13, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions

Misspent every extra dollar?

Aaron Hill 4 yr / $12 M . . . Aaron Hill’s value in 2009: $19.1 M

The Jays are not run perfectly by any means, but nor is any team. And, yes, you were comparing the Jays to the Twins. The Twins made the correct move letting Hunter walk, while the Jays signed Wells to a terrible contract. But the Twins also mucked up the Santana situation and will muck up the Mauer situation as well.

No one ever said the Jays shouldn’t be run better, we said that running the Jays like the Twins would not result in a playoff appearance in the AL East.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Oct 13, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Wasted money

If you look at Twins payroll this decade, it’s pretty steady at $60 mil per. The wasted Rogers money I’m referring to is the $50 or so mil bump the Jays took between ‘05 and ’06. The great value contract for Hill comes out at $4 mil per year, right? That’s the kind of contract a fiscally prudent team would sign – the free agent signings were not…

Read my comment again – I’m NOT comparing the Jays’ and Twins’ performance heads up. Anyway, doesn’t the big difference in their payrolls account somewhat for being in different divisions? If you do want to talk about on-field performance, think about whether the Jays and Twins would be on the same footing if Ryan had an extra $20+ million to play with.

Anyway, the Twins are competing with some big payrolls in the Central themselves… Tigers and White Sox are close to Red Sox territory, no?

by G Man on Oct 13, 2009 9:41 PM EDT reply actions

Red Sox: 121
White Sox: 96
Tigers: 115

But the Tigers are bad at spending their money (Gary Sheffield and Dontrelle Willis cost a combined $24 M and were worthless to them). Think what you want but, when you dig a little deeper, the highest payrolls in the Central are closer to the Jays than they are to the Red Sox, let alone the Yankees.

Again, that doesn’t mean the Jays can’t compete, but they certainly can’t compete if they continue to underplay their Pythagorean record by 9 games a season. Look at the Beyond the Boxscore rankings and tell me the Jays wouldn’t have fared in another division. Can’t blame it all on luck, of course, but the team was tied for 7th best wOBA in baseball and was 14th in FIP. And the sixth in baseball thing includes an adjustment for being in the AL, but doesn’t adjust for division (White Sox, Twins and Tigers were ranked 10, 12 and 13, respectively).

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Oct 13, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey Jessef,
I’m sure the Jays would have done better in another division – I never disputed that. By the same token, if you take the Twins are currently constituted, but add Halladay and Hill to account for the difference in payrolls, do you think they would be competitive in the East?

by G Man on Oct 14, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Wow thats a really weird way of looking at it.

Let’s at Magglio Ordonez to the twins to even out the difference in Payroll and do you think they would be competitive in the East?

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Oct 14, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Possibly

But I’m not even sure about that. According to fangraphs, Halladay + Hill were worth about 11.6 wins together (Nick Punto was worth 1.2, so adjust Halladay + Hill to 10.4). The Twins won 87 games over the course of the season, so if you’re willing to just credit them with 98 wins, that does put them three wins ahead of the Red Sox. However, given that they were 10-22 against the AL East during the regular season (and 10-25 including their drubbing in the Divisional series), I’m pretty sure that you can’t just do that. Doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t have been at all competitive, but I’m pretty sure that — even if you gave them Hill and Halladay — they wouldn’t be on the Twins.

However, as JohnnyG says below, that methodology is kind of flawed. Halladay and Hill were both signed to great contracts (and Hill’s bought out some arbitration years as well), so you can’t just put them on the Twins like that.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Oct 14, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Darn it, when I said

“they wouldn’t be on the Twins,” I meant, “they wouldn’t be in the playoffs.”

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Oct 14, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Possibly the answer then is to take the things Ricciardi did well – produce many solid mid-tier pitching prospects and a couple of top-notch position players – and subtract the things he did that the Twins don’t seem to do – waste money by overpaying to keep players – and you’d have had a better product?

Maybe Ricciardi would make an excellent Twins GM; maybe those kinds of financial restraints would take away his ability to waste money on re-treads and contracts to players who should be dealt or allowed to walk.

by G Man on Oct 14, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

good point

unfortunately those ryan and wells deals are really hamstringing us.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Oct 14, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess we’ll find out about that… The nucleus is pretty good. Next season (maybe like this one?) will likely hinge more on Snider than Wells. Of course, if Wells bounces back, it could even be a scary offence. (If Wells never bounces back, we should all agree the Jays should have been more like the Twins LOL) Lind has become such a monster, I’d even be interested in seeing Wells hit 3rd – his good seasons seem to have come when he’s had good to great protection? Hill could be a scary #5.

The wasted money doesn’t matter if the team wins… Neither does the team development strategy, though I find some approaches more appealing than others.

by G Man on Oct 15, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions