The Season That Was: Adam Lind

by Tom Dakers on Oct 16, 2009 11:06 AM EDT in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

Before the season I had really no idea how Adam Lind would fare this year. In the 2008 season, Lind was called up at the end of April, after Frank Thomas was released and Shannon Stewart showed he wasn't suddenly going to become young. After going 1 for 19 JP and Gibby, showing their tremendous patience, sent him back to the minors so we could be treated to Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench. They had no end of patience for those guys. When Cito signed on, he got Lind called back up. If for nothing else, that alone made his hiring a good thing.

Last year under Cito, Lind started off pretty well, but his last homer came on August 19th. That seemed like a bad sign going into to this year. Ending 2008 with a .282 batting average seemed ok, but he didn't walk hardly at all (16 times in 349 at bats), it seemed like a fairly empty .282 for a poor fielding corner outfielder.

Well I shouldn't have worried, but who thought he'd have a season like he did? In our 'Community Project' we figured Lind would have a .330 OBP and a .465 SLG in 580 plate appearances, which would have given him a WAR of 0.2. He actually hit:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Adam Lind	151	587	93	179	46	0	35	114	58	110	1	1	.305	.370	.562

So he beat out our guesses by 40 points of OBP and almost 100 points of slugging. He had 74 more plate appearances than we projected. Fangraphs puts his WAR at 3.7 which makes his value $16.6 million.

So what changed for Adam? I figure it was a combination of two things, Cito and Gene Tenace's teaching and his own talent showing through, when he finally got to relax and not worry that if he went 0 for 4 two games in a row he'd be sent down.

Unsurprisingly for a lefty he hit RHP (.317/.389/.602) much better than LHP (.287/.363/.461), but hits lefties well enough that he need not be sat against them. He hit much the same on the road (.287/.363/.577) as at home (.324/.378/.547).

He hit a lot better in the games he played in LF (.316/.386/.605) than he did as a DH (.299/.362/.539). To me, with that sort of difference, I'd like to see him play in the outfield even with his less than terrific defense.

His longest hitting streak was 13 games in July. His longest stretch without a homer was 17 games.

Batting by Month:

April .315/.400/.533

May .264/.333/.453

June .360/.434/.650

July .258/.286/.581

August . 321/.364/.560

Sept/Oct .313/.395/.604

When you get on at a .333 rate or better every month but one and slug .533 or better every month but one, you've had a good year.

He hit great with RISP (.305/.413/.584). A lot was made of his ability to hit with 2 strikes and he did hit well .251/.323/.423 but it isn't like you'd want him to get to 2 strikes.

His favorite team to play? Well the Reds (.444/.615/.889) but that was just 3 games. Of the AL teams he hit the Angels great (.539/.543/.853). Least favorite? He was 0 for 12 with no walks in 3 games against the Marlins. Hit just .214/.333/.321 in 15 games against the Orioles.

As you likely know his fielding isn't good. Fangraphs has him at a -8.0 UZR or -19.0 URZ/150 which would put him deep in at the bottom of the list of LFers in the AL if he had played enough to qualify. He only had 1 error and 1 assist. He's never going to be a good fielder. He would be a good big target at first base though.

He had a great season and is just 26 going into the next one so he hasn't hit his prime yet, he might still improve though it is hard to imagine he could hit much better.. But I'm looking forward to watching him try.

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MVP?

I’m not sure who I’d give my JoY to, Aaron Hill, Lind or Doc.

Now that the year has been in the books for a couple of weeks, I have the warmest tinglies from Lind. Hill was great, but I have all of these memories of going on week long slumps and killing rallies. If I had one guy up in the bottom of the 9th with the game on the line, I would pick Lind over Hill. I realize Hill played much better defense, but Lind was great at the plate, and consistant over 6 months. And with Doc, I think we’re just spoiled that this great season is just another “ho-hum” Doc season.

Week 6 Prediction:
Kansas City Chiefs 77 - Washington Redskins 2

by craig in calgary on Oct 16, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

You missed the one I'd give it to...

Among the batters I’d give the MVP to Marco Scutaro. I know I’m likely in the minority here, it is not only chicks that dig the long ball, but he got on base in the lead off spot, took pitches, was a heads up baserunner while playing good defense at the most important position on the field. He had the highest WAR value on the team, except for Doc. Comparing him to his position he was up among the league leaders, only Jeter and Bartlett were in his class.

But Hill and Lind are close.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 16, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

i'd give it to Ruiz

nah, just kidding

but keep him around all 2010 and who knows?

by aagoodfella on Oct 16, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I Love Lind...

A wonderful year for a guy that was wonderful all the way through the minors. 09 could turn out to be the best year of his career – but I seriously think the guy’s got a series of 30+homer years in him.

As to position – next year (IF Roy stays) hitting will be the most important thing – our pitching – ’specially if Marcum and or McGowan can contribute – will be well above average – Lind HAS to play LF. Snider has to play RF and Ruiz has to DH – ONLY way we have enough offense without that setup is if Ruiz platoons with Overbay, Lind or Snider (the worse defensive one) DHs and we sign – or trade for – a new RFer.

Is it April yet?

by Mylegacy on Oct 16, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions

Milton Bradley

by Jevant on Oct 16, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

please not

by aagoodfella on Oct 16, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

This guy was a legit beast this year. To my eyes (haven’t checked numbers) it seemed to be the best Jays hitting performance since the Delgado days?

I think Wells Lind Hill could work out 3 4 5 next year. Wells has seemed to thrive with protection from a scary bat.

by G Man on Oct 16, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Hm I can only hope.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Oct 17, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Lind

Heh, drafted him in the final round of my fantasy league (right after Hill) and got mocked as a ‘homer’ for it.

Lind is the first player I remember really following from the point he was drafted right up to the bigs. (I followed big prospects like Delgado and such, but only shallowly) Thing that I’ve always loved about Lind is his swing. His power isn’t coming from a big long swing, but instead a fast, controlled slight uppercount that hits a lot of line drives and when squared up, destroys the ball. I think people overlook the 46 doubles when looking at Lind, focusing on his 35HR, but it’s in that number that I see Lind being a legitimate power hitter for a long time. I don’t think he’s ever going to be a 40+ HR monster, but I see him remaining in that thirty range with forty or so doubles and a very good contact rate. His patience at the plate has really come around, and a chunk of his success this year has come from forcing pitchers to pitch to him, laying off some of the garbage that he struggled with in 2008.

I imagine Lind ending up as a kind of Jim Thome kind of place with Toronto; a long time power threat who brings a solid bat every year.

by dexfarkin on Oct 16, 2009 4:57 PM EDT reply actions

I was at the game 2 years ago (3 if you include this year) where Lind had won one of hte minor league player of the year awards, they gave them out before the start of the game, Lind was on the roster at the time.

I was sold on the kid from that point I liked his swing and I am glad the organization kept him around and finally gave him the chance to shine at the bigs.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Oct 17, 2009 11:53 AM EDT reply actions