Are Jason Bay or Carlos Degado Really the Players We Should Be Going After This Off Season?

by Tom Dakers on Oct 17, 2009 4:59 PM EDT in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

So lately I've been reading about two players that people want the Blue Jays to go after Jason Bay (most recently by Dave Perkins in the Star) and Carlos Delgado (in the Jay Hunter). Neither of which really excite me. Lets looks at Bay for a moment. This is what he hit last year

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jason Bay	151	531	103	142	29	3	36	119	94	162	13	3	.267	.384	.537

A season not all that different than Adam Lind's:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Adam Lind	151	587	93	179	46	0	35	114	58	110	1	1	.305	.370	.562

So what's the trouble? Well, Jason can only play LF and not a very good LF at that. He has roughly the same defensive ability in LF as Lind. He had a -13.9 UZR this year and that was in a tiny LF in Boston, you want him roaming a larger LF? As you might know, we already have a line of guys that play LF poorly. If he could play RF then maybe he'd be a player to go after, but he has played all of 8 innings in right. So we we were to sign him, he would have to play left, Travis Snider would have to play right and Lind would DH. And Vernon Wells would have to run his legs off. We wouldn't gain much defensively over a Lind, Wells, Snider outfield.

How much would Bay cost us? I would guess at least $15 million a year for 4 years. He is 31 now so 35 at the end of the contract, offensively I'd still expect him to be a valuable player, defensively I'd expect you'd want to move him to DH by then. I'd also expect we'd want to move Vernon out of CF sometime in the next 2 or 3 years.

Yeah he's Canadian and that is a draw but only if he can help us win. There are lots of Canadians we could sign if we weren't worried about winning. I don't know, maybe if Overbay could be moved and Lind could play first it would be worth signing him. But even then we are setting ourselves up to have a lousy defensive outfield for the next several years.

I guess if we were to sign him I wouldn't cry and complain but he's not the first guy I'd chase. I'd much rather we go after a guy that could play good defense in the outfield.

Now Carlos Delgado, what do he do this year?

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Carlos Delgado	26	94	15	28	7	1	4	23	12	20	0	0	.298	.393	.521

He was hurt a lot of the year. Someone would have to promise me he is healthy before I'd want to sign him but the year before he hit 38 homers. Would he take a one year contract? Would he want to be a full time DH? He is 37 now and there is a glut of DH types on the market this year.

The downside? Well you are forcing Lind into playing LF full time, so we are forced into a Lind, Wells, Snider outfield. Get used to watching balls hit the ground. It also makes us a little left side heavy in the offense. Lind, Snider, Overbay and Delgado would all swing from the left side.

So no, unless he comes really cheap, I'm not really all that excited about picking him up, but then I think there will be DH types that will go cheap again this winter, so if he's one I won't complain if we picked him but he's not who I'd build my off season around.

Now if someone was to suggest we go after Mike Cameron or another good defensive outfielder so we could rework ourselves back into a good defensive team, that I could get behind.

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Comments

The issue is that the good bats on the market are all LF/DH/1B (and the 1B are probably worse hitters than an Overbay/Bautista platoon at the position).

That means, you options are Jermaine Dye (ick—and not a good defender either) or a Snider-Wells-Lind OF with a big FA at DH (or a Snider-Wells-FA OF with Lind at DH; or a Snider-Wells-Lind OF with Encarnacion at DH and Figgins at 3B). There isn’t a way to improve the outfield defensively this offseason without signing someone who won’t be that great offensively. And if you go out at sign a CF like a Cameron, then you’re left moving Vernon to RF and hoping he doesn’t shit the bed offensively again and completely submarine the team’s offence because of it (two outfielders with a sub .800 OPS won’t fly, and there’s a very real chance Snider won’t hit that mark either, giving us 3 OFs with a sub .800 OPS).

Outfield D is overrated. Take the hitters.

by Yogowen on Oct 17, 2009 5:34 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t think outfied D is overrated. I think it is very important, Not as much as say Shortstop but important none the less.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Oct 18, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I would expect...

Wells to hit his career mark of about an .800 OPS.

I would also expect that if we did have Mike Cameron, he would have about an .800 OPS.

And further, I am definitely expecting Snider to have an .800 OPS. (.270/.330/.470) that line would not be hard for this guy to achieve next year.

If that was our outfield, I would be excited. I think Vernon would play an excellent RF.

I would then let Overbay, Lind, Ruiz to be our 1B/DH. Lind playing everyday, and Ruiz and Overbay switching in and out of the lineup.

by T.Haynes on Oct 18, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Bay would cost us too much money. I would be interested in someone like Delgado or Dye for a one year contract if the price was right.

by goodbye JP on Oct 17, 2009 10:02 PM EDT reply actions

double pass

these signings would fall into the “more money than brains” signings .. IMHO

by aagoodfella on Oct 17, 2009 10:13 PM EDT reply actions

From a marketing perspective...

I think the Delgado deal makes the most sense. He’s only 30HR or so away from 500, he’s still loved by the city, and he was a hometown developed star. From the baseball aspect, if you’re thinking about Bay, you’ve already essentially settled on a Lind-Wells-Snider OF combination. Delgado is likely cheaper, shorter term, and less destructive to cut if you have to. So if it comes down to an either-or, I take Delgado. If it comes down to what I think is best for the team in terms of having a windfall to look at signing other players in the offseason, both of them aren’t in my top ten out of the wishlist.

by dexfarkin on Oct 18, 2009 3:28 AM EDT reply actions

the best marketing is making it into the playoffs and winning the World Series … the rest is just peripheral IMHO

by aagoodfella on Oct 18, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Not at all. Yes, making the playoffs and winning the World Series is the goal, and it will bring the most people out. But if you’re looking at contending on a regular basis, you need to have that 40K per game to have the necessary base to field a payroll on par with your competition. The Jays need to have a payroll at least in the same realm as the Red Sox to be a contender every year, ergo, the Jays need to have a sufficient revenue stream to sustain it. Peripherals matter. I want the Jays to make the playoffs, but I want them to have a legitimate chance to do it every year, not just once or twice a decade.

As I said, I think if you’re strongly considering Bay, you’re already accepting the scenario that makes Delgado feasible. In that case, Delgado brings all the same things on the field, and advantages off the field.

by dexfarkin on Oct 18, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

On a side note, did anyone see the Yankees walk off win last night?

Defense killed the Angels two games in a row. They were a mess in the first game and last night threw away a ball trying to get a double play in the bottom of the 13th (at 1AM Eastern) They could of taken the out at first and had 2nd and 3rd with 2 out, but instead throw it wide of the SS covering and allowed the run to score.

Sloppy, Very sloppy.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Oct 18, 2009 10:32 AM EDT reply actions

It seems strange that both series

are being turned on throwing errors by the second baseman. Stupid Angels.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 18, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

How many games do you think a Lind-type LF would cost us?

2? 3? max? How many games could a bat like healthy Delgado or Bay get you? Dunno. That’s what management has to sit down and iron out.

Personally, I’d say no to Bay, just cause of the contract. A cheap Delgado for 1-2 years intrigues me though. So would a cheap or short deal Thome, or Matsui.

Mike Cameron? No thanks. Another OF disaster waiting to happen.
2009 stats
544 AB Avg. 250 OPS .795 HR 24 RBI 70
Jose Bautista
336 AB Avg. 235 OPS .757 HR 13 RBI 40
Jose Bautista if he had 544 AB?
544 AV Avg. 235 OPS .757 HR 21 RBI 64

Bautista is only slightly inferior to Cameron offensively. Factor in the AL East pitching (and AL in general), and the lack of playing time, and they’re probably about the same. Bautista may be even better defensively. How much did we complain about Bautista this season? I’d wager we’d to the same for Cameron if he were picked up. We’d complain just as much, if not more about Cameron. He’s going to be 37 this year, so he’s surely a declining asset. It’s almost like a reclamation project if you ask me. If you’re going for defense, I’d rather put 29 year old Bautista out there. And that’s not really what I’d like to do anyway.

by REMO on Oct 18, 2009 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

Since Lind is only worth about 4 games offensively, this past season, over replacement

losing 2 game to his defense is a ton.

And course, Cameron’s offense comes with his glove. Which, of course, is the point. If you go from a roughly -2 game glove in center to a +2 game glove in center, improve in RF with Wells there over Snider. And if you play Bautista more that means playing him more against RHP which he doesn’t hit at all. And Bautista is no where close defensively, except for arm,

by Tom Dakers on Oct 18, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Anything that gets Vernon out of CF...

…is okay by me.

by Jevant on Oct 19, 2009 10:48 AM EDT reply actions

Agree Tom

I am the guy that would like to see Canadians in the line-up; and I love Bay, but he doesn’t really do anything for us.

I am scared of Delgado, unless we can get him on a Bobby Abreu type deal or less type deal. Still doesn’t solve our OF and then we have 2 lefties at 1b. I really wish Dopriak was called up this year.

Mike Cameron is interesting, but I wouldn’t overpay for him either.

However the Jays need to do something to bring some excitement back.

by Rhinos on Oct 19, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah that last line is it....

and that’s why I can see signing Bay. That would be a big splash, would get people talking about the Jays which would be good. As a baseball move, I think signing Bay doesn’t make much sense but as a business move, maybe it does.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 19, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Well we better hit then.

Have you heard anything about Halladay? I don’t want another circus around him this year.

But I also don’t want to make a Johan Santana like deal. I would like for it to be quick, painless and recieve about 85 cents on the dollar to get it done quickly.

I am fine if he stays; but the circus this year wasn’t good for anyone.

by Rhinos on Oct 19, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

See, it’s the business side that makes me prefer Delgado, and I think he comes at half the years and a quarter of the price. With the market, I think there’s a real chance to get him for a couple of years in the $6-8mil range at most, maybe less. You then use the rest of that money to go after another big name, like a Figgins and resigning some people. If I’ve got, say, $20mil this year to add to my payroll, I’d be a lot happier with adding Delgado, Figgins and resigning Barajas than Bay and some mid-grade catcher.

Going after Bay means carrying two aging OFs for the next four-five years at big money. We get snakebitten by injury again, and Rogers decides to yank the pursestrings shut, it’ll be 2000 all over again, with Bay and Wells sharing $40mil+ of the payroll between them.

by dexfarkin on Oct 19, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Well here's the problem....

With Delgado, if you give him say $6 mill for two years, there is a very real chance that he will give us absolutely nothing.

With Bay, you could sign him for say $60 million for 4 years and at worst he gives us $30 million of value.

I’m not really sure which is worse.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 19, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

So we agree on Mike Cameron

But can’t agree on how it will put more fans at the SkyDome (Bay and Delgado definitly would).

i would only go 1 year with Delgado and over pay him slightly…5 mil?

I really don’t see us getting Figgins, but who knows. I would be ecstatic if we did.

by Rhinos on Oct 19, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry, but Blue Jays history for the last 15 years says that signing a player does not increase attendance in any significant way. I suspect that the only way for the Jays to have a significant increase in attendance is to have a long sustained winning streak with some of those wins against Boston and New York.

by siggian on Oct 20, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmmmm that would be tough to prove.....

the last big free agent signings were Burnett and Ryan. The season after they signed we had 2,302,212 in attendance….the season before 2,014,995 so roughly 15% more after the signing. And, those two weren’t big Canadian sluggers.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 20, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think that you look at them just as an either/or proposition though. If you sign Delgado when you could sign Bay, you have $48mil left over that four years. So if we’re gambling with $15mil a year, what does that extra $9mil bring us? So suddenly it’s about Delgado and another player or two versus just Bay. So if Delgado flames out, I still have free agent X and possibly Y there producing. Bay suddenly goes through a Wells like stumble for a couple of years, I have… whatever is in AAA or available for the league minimum to bring in.

Again, we’re deep into speculative territory. It comes down to which you personally think safely brings the team more value; that one safe big bat, or one possible big bat as well as another piece or two for the overall. I love Bay and I’d love if the Jays could go out and get him. But if you put the money in my hands and said you’re go with the defensive structure Bay would bring, I think there’s more value out there possible across the board.

by dexfarkin on Oct 19, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with that first sentence

by aagoodfella on Oct 19, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

at night I go to sleep and before I nod off I breathe deeply and think “please Jays, do not piss our hard earned money away on an overpriced Jason Bay”

by aagoodfella on Oct 19, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Chone Figgins for me please

Imagine our lineup with this guy (plus, assuming we sign Scutaro):

Figgins 3b
Scutaro ss
Hill 2b
Lind lf
Wells cf
Snider rf
Overbay 1b
Ruiz dh
WhoKnows c

Figgins has huge OBP numbers, and is a great leadoff presence. This also enables Scutaro to slide into the 2-hole, where he’s ideally suited as a contact hitter.

As many others have said, I don’t think Bay or Carlos are a good fit for the club.

by TenaciousDirk on Oct 21, 2009 8:53 AM EDT reply actions

bay vs degaldo

I would perfer Dye over them both – yes Dye is not that good of an outfielder but he is a 30hr/100RBI guy – I would not move Wells out of CF – he is still pretty dam good out there – we could get Dye for less term and money than bay and I am pretty sure Dye is a right handed bat ( if we signed Degaldo too many lefthanded bats) – put Dye in the 4 hole between Hill and Lind or Dye in the 5 spot after lind both would work – I think Cito should use Wells in the 2 spot (sees more fast balls) or 6th spot – less pressure on Wells to be the Guy. I really do not think we have the money to sign a figgins or Bay – If we could get figgins that would be great- but we would have to over pay and we know how good that works. I would hope AA would resign Rod and Marco. I would also love to see AA resign Johnny Mac, and Bauista – no millar – go with Ruiz ( cheaper and just as good). I really think the Jays are just one big bat and a good season from Wells to be in playoff contention.

Marco
Wells
Hill
Lind
Dye
Rod
Overbay
Edwin
Snider

bench
Chavez
Macdonald
Ruiz
Bautista

by hollywoodhill on Oct 23, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions