The Season That Was: Lyle Overbay
by Tom Dakers on Oct 18, 2009 7:03 PM EDT
in Analysis
5 comments
This was Lyle Overbay's fourth season with the Blue Jays and it was his best season since the first. He seemed to have Rod Barajas disease though, he was either hot or cold and rarely in between. He doesn't seem to be one of Cito's favorites, I'd like to see him batting in the 2 spot, at least against RHP but it doesn't seem like something Cito would try.
In the Community Project we guessed Lyle would have a .350 OBP and .450 SLG in 570 PA which, with his good defense would add up to a 2.5 WAR.
So we were short by 22 points of OB and 16 points of slugging, pretty darn close, but he only had 500 PA so we were a little high on that, Cito liked Kevin Millar too much. Fangraphs had his WAR at 1.9 but they had him as a below average fielder, which I really don't agree with. They give his value at $8.7 million, so we really aren't overpaying on the guy.
I guess it is no surprise to anyone that Lyle hit RHP much better (.282/.396/.509) than he hit LHP (.190/.256/.278). He really does need a platoon partner. I'd like someone better than Kevin Millar but we clearly need someone to spell him.
Overbay hit almost exactly the same on the road (.264/.363/.368) as at home (.266/.382/.463).
He didn't do well with RISP, .205/.366/.313.
His longest hitting streak was 15 games at the end of May and the start of June.
By Month Lyle hit:
April .250/.403/.500
May .294/.347/.515
June .246/.411/.478
July .227/.320/.364
August .329/.430/.507
Sept/Oct .242/.324/.440
Take out July and maybe September and you are looking at a pretty good season.
His favorite team to play? Oakland A's hitting 412/.500/.1.059 in 5 games. His least favorite team to play was the White Sox .071/.278/.071 in 4 games.
Fangraphs has his defense at a slightly worse than average (-1.7 UZR). I'm not sure how much you can read into UZR for first basemen. He only made 2 errors on the season for a .998 fielding average. I've always kind of discounted defense at first because that is the spot you put the guy that can't play anywhere else, but watching Kevin Millar this year I've changed my thinking some. I think a really bad first baseman can hurt you more than a bad fielder at other spots because the first baseman makes plays every game. An outfielder might not see a chance in a game, same with a third baseman so you might be able to hide a bad glove for a game or two.
He's been a good on base guy and like him as a player, but in a RBI spot in the order isn't the best for him. With him in a division with Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis and Carlos Pena he looks worse than he really is. He's not going to win you the division but then he's not going to lose it for you either. 2010 is the end of Lyle's contract and likely will be his last year with the team. I'm hoping it is a good one.
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Overbay is ok. I probably like him more than his numbers justify. He seems a solid first baser. The inconsistency in his hitting can be really frustrating. I still attribute it to his loooooooooooooong swing. If he could cut down a bit, he could probably boost his average (albeit at the expense of some slugging) and maybe prolong his career. If he just shortened up latter in the AB, say after he is down a couple of strikes, I think he could improve. Of course, that is all speculation from the stands but maybe. Anyhow, he does seem to occasionally have a knack for producing when his teammates do not and as such, has “won” a couple of games for the Jays this year. Maybe the biggest strike against him is a lack of visible — i dont know how to say it — passion to win or something like that. In any case, with a crowd of “gloveless” hitters on the Jays roster and 1B prospects in the Jays system, the list of 1B candidates for the Jays is as long as Overbay’s swing. The numbers game for Overbay in the Jays org is not favorable. A trade could be nice … but improbable.
by aagoodfella on Oct 19, 2009 12:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Overbay’s lack of aggressiveness can be very frustrating to watch and he looks terrible against lefties but he walks a lot and fields well. If the Jays can get an upgrade, they will pull the plug.
by wadcanshuur on Oct 19, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
overbay/encarnacion would look great
when encarnacion plays 1b vs lhp, bautista plays 3b… sign a decent 4th outfielder, and we are in business.
by Andy Mc on Oct 19, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
IF...
…the team keeps Overbay as your regular 1B, EE as the regular 3B, and Bautista as the backup 3B/OF, that leaves Wells, Lind, Snider and a free agent to fill the OF/DH spots. I can live with that. What would be good is a decent CF that could push Wells to RF and allow Snider/Lind to alternate between LF and DH.
by Jevant on Oct 20, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Overbay / Ruiz at first?
If we keep Lind/Wells/Snider in the outfield, have EE at 3B, sign a SS.. We could keep Bautista on the bench as a back up…
I`d like to see the jays find a speedy, CF who could steal some bases, and play defense late in games…
by Lanky07 on Oct 20, 2009 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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