Bill James Player Projections

by Tom Dakers on Oct 23, 2009 1:58 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 7 comments

One of the perks of playing on here is occasionally I'll get some email and once in a blue moon it won't be Viagra spam. One of my favorite reference books that I get at the end of each season is the Bill James Handbook, that comes out now from ACTA Sports. One of the fun parts of the book is their Player Projections and they have sent me a preview of it. So I've been a happy little camper searching through it and checking out the Jay players.

Now the projections...well every year they get some very right, they are close on a lot and they miss quite a few but it is fun

So let's check some of the Jay batters:

Rod Barajas 232/.278/.402/.679 20 doubles, 14 HR, 41 Run, 52 RBI, 3.70 RC/27, 114 G

No surprise, they expect much the same sort of season as last year. His OPS was .661 in 2009 so very much the same season, slightly better on base. A few less games, he will be 34 so expecting him to be pretty much injury free again might be hopeful.

J.P. Arencibia .225/.254/.426/.679 27 doubles, 17 Hr, 44 Runs, 53 RBI, 3.59 RC/27, 114 G

This is one of their ‘if he were to play' projections. With Rod a free agent, they want to have a projection for him, in case we don't have anyone else. They figure his numbers not to be any worse than Barajas. I'll admit I agree, I think he could do much the same job as Rod, if given a chance.

Raul Chavez .235/.266/.318/.583 8 doubles 2 Hr, 2.80 RC/27, 14 Run, 17 RBI, 64 G

Raul was fine as a back up this year and likely would be again next year but no one will mistake him for a hitter. He will be 37 this coming year.

Lyle Overbay .267/.359/.443/.803 34 doubles, 15 Hr, 5.63 RC/27, 60 Run, 63 RBI, 140 G

Not a terrible exciting season for Lyle, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were very close on this one. I'd like to hope he would hit better than .267 but is likely right.

Aaron Hill .283/.337/.463/.800 35 doubles, 20 Hr, 5.55 RC/27, 78 Runs, 76 RBI,138 G

Likely fair, I'd like to hope he'll be over 20 homers but that's a safe guess. If Cito is manager I'd expect him to play more games than that.

Marco Scutaro 264/.347/.381/.728 30 doubles, 10 Hr, 4.59 RC/27, 79 Runs, 57 RBI, 147 G

A bit of a drop from this year, I'd bet on the over on the OBP but that's me.

John McDonald 234/.270/.317/.587 6 doubles, 2 Hr, 2.79 RC/27, 16 runs, 12 RBI, 60 G

Yep.......

Kevin Millar .242/.342/.395/.737 11 doubles, 6 Hr, 4.51 RC/27, 24 Run, 24 RBI, 75 G

Seems awfully optimistic to me. Please not with the Jays, ok?

We'll look at the rest of the batters later on.

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Comments

I agree, they should give J.P. Arencibia a wing at full time.

by jon paine on Oct 23, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can we do a comparison of what they had for last year’s book with what the Jays achieved this year?

by siggian on Oct 23, 2009 4:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good idea,,,,

likely when I get all of this year’s projections up I’ll look for last year’s. I know they were way off on Aaron Hill, but then who wouldn’t be. I know they were fairly close on Overbay.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 23, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Overbay could spike up this season since it is a contract year

by aagoodfella on Oct 23, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

overbay sucks….. he will probably be 260 hitter again with 15 HR….. not very good for 1B….. we need to get him out of there…. either convert someone to 1B like snider maybe…. give ruiz a shot (although i think he wouldnt do that good)…. or sign a FA 1B…. i like trying to convert snider to IB…. he seems built for that position….. anyways get overbay out…… he sucks….. might as well take an automatic out then let him hit into another inning ended double play….

I like the idea of giving arenciba a shot…. i dont think the jays can contend next year so even if he cost us a couple more games then barajas who cares…. give him a shot and see what he can do….

As i doubt we will contend next year…. i think its time to trade halladay next deadline for one top pitcher and position players like SS, 1B, and C is arenciba cant get it done

by hugiman on Oct 24, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

omg, is Millar gonna be back?

by aagoodfella on Oct 23, 2009 4:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think they need to fix J-Macs projections

234/.270/.317/.587 is a bit harsh…

i expect something along the lines of .310/.350/.465/.800ish.

And people saying we should give JPA a shot full time need to think for a bit. He sucked massively in AAA this year. Until he has a big year in AAA we shouldnt promote him. It’d be pointless. Hes not going to have a breakthrough in the majors if he cant hit AAA pitching.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Oct 24, 2009 12:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs