Bill James Player Projections, Part 2
Part two of our look at the Bill James Player Projections for our Blue Jay players. These come from the Bill James Handbook, that will come out soon from ACTA Sports.
Edwin Encarnacion 259/.343/.465/.808 28 doubles, 21 Hr, 5.4 RC/27, 64 Runs, 69 RBI, 129 G
I'd be quite happy with this from Edwin if he plays a decent 3B. He looks to have a strong arm, I'm thinking with help from Brian Butterfield through spring training and we'll have a good player there. Or it is possible I'm kidding myself.
Randy Ruiz 294/.352/.517/.869 13 doubles, 9 Hr, 26 Runs, 31 RBI, 6.55 RC/27, 55 G
Totally impossible to predict what will happen with Ruiz. If Cito is still manager, I doubt he'd play this much. Cito doesn't like Lind in LF so Ruiz wouldn't be able to DH and he doesn't like Ruiz at 1B. If we get a new manager, you never know. Also if we sign someone life Jason Bay there isn't a role for Randy. He's not going to be a star, but I don't think he'd be any worse defensively than Kevin Millar was. I do have a feeling he will be up and down a few times next year, the team doesn't ‘have to worry about option years at his age.
Adam Lind .305/.364/.542/.907 43 doubles, 31 Hr, 7.34 RC/27, 90 Runs, 113 RBI, 153 G
They think last year's play is his new level of ability. I figured there would be a little hedging of bets but I'd take that season from him.
Vernon Wells .271/.327/.443/.769 33 doubles, 19 Hr, 5.07 RC/27, 77 Runs, 77 RBI, 144 G
So they see a little bit of a bounce back year. Not as big a comeback as we'd like but about where I'd guess.
Jose Bautista 241/.335/.409/.744 21 doubles, 13 Hr, 4.52 RC/27, 51 Runs, 48 RBI, 121 G
Numbers much like this year's. If he's a Jay I hope he doesn't play that much. Again it would likely depend if Cito is the manager, Cito liked him a lot. I'd like to think we could do better in RF.
Travis Snider 275/.357/.493/.850 33 doubles, 19 Hr, 6.21 RC/27, 82 Runs, 90 RBI, 141 G
I'd be really happy if Travis has this sort of season next year, a few more homers wouldn't be bad but would be a good season for him. He will only be 22 next year
Just to look at a couple of former Jays:
Scott Rolen .278/.357/.442/.799 35 doubles, 14 Hr, 5.48 RC/27, 72 Runs, 75 RBI, 127 G
If that's the over/under on games played for Rolen I'll take under. They have a good year predicted for him at age 35.
Alex Rios .278/.332/.445/.777 36 doubles, 16 Hr, 5.21 RC/27, 79 Runs, 73 RBI, 149 G
I'd take the under on everything there but could easily happen. That would be a good season if he plays CF.
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tater numbers for Rolen and Rios seem high
I hope to see more of Ruiz than 55 games
U really think the Jays will sign Bay? I am doubtful, but you never know.
I would like to see a bit more from Snider, but that might be optimistic.
by aagoodfella on Oct 24, 2009 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see more average from Edwin and more power from Wells, but again, all speculation
by aagoodfella on Oct 24, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The numbers projected for Snider are already incredibly optimistic
based on his big-league performance so far.
Id be very happy if he hits .270 with 20 homers and 80RBI
Onions Baby Onions
by ohmybosh on Oct 24, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
more Snider kool-aid
plus he (Snider) is a work in progress. Early on he was very effective, hitting near 300 and lots of extra-base power, Big league pitching adjusted to him and his production plummeted. I expect Snider will make adjustments to big league pitching. So yea, looking back against recent history, Snider numbers may look generous, but factoring in progress along the learning curve I think Snider can beat those numbers handily in future seasons (and, fingers crossed, perhaps sooner).
by aagoodfella on Oct 25, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
EE's not bad...
…it’s just that he sure ain’t no Rolen. However – I think he’ll be at least adequate.
Hill, Lind, Snider & Ruiz will give us four formidable bats in the middle of the lineup. Not so worse, eh?
by Mylegacy on Oct 25, 2009 8:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Call me crazy
But wouldn`t…
1. Scutaro – or maybe a FA…
2. Overbay – excellent number 2 hitter, let`s him focus on doubles and moving runners
3. Hill
4. Lind
5. Wells – even if he just hits .270, no power, and drives in runs with singles
6. Snider
7. Ruiz
8. EE
9. Chavez/JP/Barett – anyone really
Doesn`t sound that bad, and with the money that would free up…
Doc, #2 FA, Marcum, Romero, RZ….
Frasor, Downs, League, Tallett, Roenicke, Carlson, Jansen…
With that pitching, we don`t need to win 11-10 every night.. just put up 4-5 runs
by Lanky07 on Oct 26, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im not penciling Marcum back into his spot into the rotation just yet
His velocity was down 3-4 points on the gun if i remember in his rehab… and we havent seen him in the bigs since he got hurt… I think its safer to assume he wont produce at his previous level when he returns… maybe more of a 4-5 guy.
Onions Baby Onions
by ohmybosh on Oct 26, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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