The Season That Was: Aaron Hill

by Tom Dakers on Oct 8, 2009 10:01 PM EDT in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

I figured during the off season we'd take a closer look how the Jay players did this past season, and why not start with Aaron Hill. Going into the year it was hard to guess what sort of season Aaron would have. 2008 wasn't looking too good before the concussion put him out.

As part of a community project we guessed that Hill would have 600 Plate Appearances and have a .335 OBP and a .435 SA. What did he actually do?

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Aaron Hill	158	682	103	195	37	0	36	108	42	98	6	2	.286	.330	.499

So we were well over 100 short on plate appearances, just 5 points high on the OBP but 64 points short on slugging. To be fair, who would have expected Hill to more than double his previous career high in homers.

Fangraphs has him at a 4.3 WAR which would be worth $19.9 million so we got our money's worth out of him. He set career highs in just about every offensive category that matters, except for doubles and triples. He did have some bad luck on balls in play, having a .290 BABIP, so with a little luck his average couple of been a been better. He had a good line drive rate (19.6%). His percentage of homers per fly ball was a bit high (14.9%), but might be his new level of performance. Yeah, it would be nice if he would take a few more walks, but this is the type of batter he is and he does it well.

His longest hit streak of the season was 13 games, back in May.

He didn't have a large platoon split, .282/.328/.477 vs. RHP and .298/.335/.561 vs. LHP.

He had more power at home .271/.317/.536, but a better average on the road .299/.342/.465.

Hit hit well with RISP .299/.345/.481

Hitting by Month:

April .365/.412/.567 5HR

May 307/.331/.480 7HR

June .245/.294/.491 7HR

July .235/.291/.461 5HR

August .274/.292/.496 7HR

Sept/Oct .287/.358/.500 5HR

Very few players could have kept the early hot hitting going, but he was very consistent with the power numbers.

His favorite team to play? Cincinnati Reds (.417/.500/1.000) but that was just 3 games. Among AL teams it was the Twins (.524/.545/.667) but still a small sample, just 5 games.

His least favorite team to play? Would you believe the Washington Nationals? .188/.235/.188, again just 3 games. Among AL teams he had troubles with the Yankees (.213/.250/.375) and that was in 18 games, so a more reasonable sample size.

Fielding: Well, fangraphs didn't like his fielding so much showing him with a -1.5 UZR, slightly below average. I'm not sure I agree, though I used to think he should move back to short but I'm not thinking that anymore. I didn't see him as Gold Glove level but figured him to be better than average. We'll see when some of the other fielding formulas come out. He only made 7 errors for a .991 FP which would be second in the AL to Placido Polanco.

Overall, it was a terrific year for Hill, just seeing him play after coming back from the concussion was great. Who would have hoped he'd have 36 homers and 108 RBI. He was amazingly durable, starting 155 games at second base and couple more at DH. Only Robinson Cano started more games at second base in the AL. I'd like to think that maybe Cito could learn to give him the odd day off.

So how much credit do you give Cito for Hill's new found power? He is tough to guess on those things, Cito seemed to have a clear effect on Adam Lind but I'm not sure if there is as clear a line between Cito and Hill. Cito was saying that Hill should take more walks, and it would be nice, but that seems like nitpicking to me.. Cito was talking about moving him to third in the lineup and having Lind hit fourth, if they both continue to hit the same then that wouldn't be a bad idea.

He had a great season, making the All-Star team and winning the Comeback Player of the Year award. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a few MVP votes too. It this is his new level of performance life will be good.

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Comments

I love this guy.
So happy that JP locked him up.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Oct 8, 2009 10:07 PM EDT reply actions

I guess

Even a broken watch is right twice a day…

by T.Haynes on Oct 9, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions

As mentioned before he did things wrong, but he also did plenty things right.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Oct 9, 2009 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions

and how

by aagoodfella on Oct 8, 2009 10:12 PM EDT reply actions

Well, fangraphs didn’t like his fielding so much showing him with a -1.5 UZR, slightly below average.

Reasons why I put little stock in fielding stats to date. Hill shows exceptional range at second, and also a key ability to read the ball off the bat. Which means he gets to, or gets close to, a lot of stuff he’s got no business being able to potentially challenge. His ability to pivot and release quickly, even while in motion off-balance or coming from his knees is fantastic, and I wouldn’t at all consider his performance undeserving of a Gold Glove.

I have a feeling that fielding is going to continue to be the Sabermetrics grail for a long time; sought after arduously, but never attained.

by dexfarkin on Oct 9, 2009 9:04 AM EDT reply actions

But he doesn't show exceptional range anymore....

There are reasons not to believe people’s eyes too. For years we were told how much range Roberto Alomar had because every play he made was amazing looking. After a while we came to realize that he just knew how to make average plays look good.

Hill, it seemed to me, lost some range this year but then he double his career high for homers, a trade I’d make gladly. He seemed a little bulkier this year, not quite as quick in the field as he was but nothing terrible, still around average range.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 9, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

See, I think maybe it’s the way range in defined. For me, I consider range to include positioning prior to the swing at the point the pitch starts, where as I think UZR looks at range from the point the ball leaves the bat. I always thought that was Alomar’s strength to, repositioning with the pitch to set for the ball coming off the bat.

Alomar was great not because of the fact that his plays were amazing looking, in my mind, but that he was shifting in order to be in position to make the play at the pitch, so a ball that would have been a solid hit off the bat, which no second baseman could make from their original fixed point, was in play for Robbie due to that shift. Hill shows the same kind of tendency, as I’ve watched him live. Actually, it’s why I don’t think Wells is as bad in centre as his number indicate, because he actually does a lot of little things very well in the field. Not enough against his declining speed to keep him there, but I think he’s certainly a step above being the worst defensive CF in baseball.

by dexfarkin on Oct 9, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

but Alomar didn't get to many balls...

To have range of any sort you have to get to a lot of balls. Alomar always was near the bottom of the league in range. If Alomar shifted to get to more balls then it would show up, he’d, you know, get to more balls.

Saying that you don’t think Wells is as bad in center means nothing if he doesn’t get to many balls in center, which he didn’t for most of the season. The end of the year he got better but he was still at the bottom of the league for range, among everyday CFers.

by Tom Dakers on Oct 9, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Getting back to Hill though, he leads or is near the top for all 2B in the MLB in put outs, assists, doubleplays, fielding%, RF/G, and RF/9. But his UZR is in the bottom half of the aggregate total, with 11 points of difference between, say, him and Pedroia. I find it somewhat difficult to fathom that Pedroia is that much a significantly better a fielder than Hill. In fact, his stats outside of UZR tend to support what I think I’m seeing, unless the Jays are statistically significantly ahead of the rest of baseball in ground balls between 1B and 2B (which I conceed could very well be true).

by dexfarkin on Oct 9, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions