Where Will Roy Halladay Play Next Year?
by Tom Dakers on Nov 18, 2009 4:41 PM EST
in Analysis
29 comments
Jon Heyman at SI.com wrote about who might trade for Doc today. He ranks the teams he think are mostly likely to get Halladay in this order:
He might be right, though I'd think that the Dodgers still might have a shot. Maybe Colorado too. I can see the point of trying to get the Red Sox and Yankees competing against each other over him. Anyway, I thought we'd run a poll, so let us know who you think Roy Halladay will be pitching for this coming season. For extra points and bragging rights use the comments area to let us know who the Jays will receive in return for Doc. If anyone comes close to calling it, we'll work out some sort of prize.
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Gotta be the Yankees...
Only the Evil Empire can put the money long term for Roy and prospects the Jays would bite at. Roy to NY is not BAD – the Yankees are AMAZING now – Roy to Boston is a DISASTER. If the Sox get Roy then we have TWO fantastic opponents in the AL east. IF the Yanks get Roy that will help them crush us AND Boston – thereby actually narrowing the room between us and Boston. Realistically – we are after the Wild Card.
The KEY player the Yanks have is Jesus Montero a 20 year old (in 2010) who’s a “tiny” 6’ 4" 225 pound catcher who hit 337/389/562/951 in 347 ab’s with 17 homers. Jesus is considered to be one of the best hitting prospect in the game. The down side on the guy is that he might not be able to stay at catcher – the Yanks say he can but most independent scouts see in him LF or 1st.
Lind, Hill, Snider and Montero would give us four FANTASTIC young UBBERBATS as the heart of our team going forward.
by Mylegacy on Nov 18, 2009 7:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
phillies
Brown, Drabek, Bastardo, and Mayberry
by goodbye JP on Nov 18, 2009 10:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
if the jays trade him within the AL East i will no longer support the team.. fuck that noise
Hayley Wickenheiser has more truculence than Matt Stajan
by AkiSchennberg on Nov 19, 2009 10:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
sorry for swearing.. i instantly regret my decision to hit post
Hayley Wickenheiser has more truculence than Matt Stajan
by AkiSchennberg on Nov 19, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
everyone's allowed one...
and I understand the sentiment.
by Tom Dakers on Nov 19, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Trading Doc
Kershaw and Brown in a three team trade with the Dodgers and Phillies
by voidhelix on Nov 19, 2009 12:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wouldnt mind trading Doc to the Yankees
Personally i like to think deep down doc hates them as much as we all do, so he wont resign with them…
and we need montero, hughes and joba in return from the yankees if it ever happens.
Onions Baby Onions
by ohmybosh on Nov 19, 2009 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention
That Doc actually uses NY to pad his stats. Most pitchers use teams like KC or Washington to do that, but he sets his sights on “presumably” the best hitting team in the majors. He may not want to be traded there for that reason alone. But that may mean he’d want to stay within the AL East, which would put him in Boston. Not good for us at all. Plus that will probably give NY that much more incentive to offer the best package and keep him out of Boston.
by jonnybluejay on Nov 19, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that Mylegacy has a real point. If we’re going to consider trading him in the division, it is far better for us to trade him to New York. Boston is a little patchwork right now, and adding Doc will solidify their pitching. The Yankees are already set for a monster 2010 season. Trading Doc to them argubly doesn’t hurt us any more than playing them already will. The worst thing for us is not to have the Yankees get stronger, but to allow Boston to.
by dexfarkin on Nov 19, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
do I remember a quote or interview with Roy where he was discussing his kid being a Yanks fan and Roy somewhat chafing at the concept? In any case, for a chance at a WS and a good contract, I think he would go there.
If the Jays move Roy, they should look for the best haul including the Yanks. The Yanks’ roster is starting to get pretty aged and they are likely to decline in the next couple or few years. With an eye to a WS in that range, we should be more focused on filling out our on roster than concerning ourselves with others’.
by aagoodfella on Nov 19, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Painful to Say... But Trading Doc is what`s best for us...
If Doc has a great year, and in game`s he pitches we go 28-7, but with the rest of our holes we can`t win when he`s not on the mound we won`t go far…
But if we can turn Doc into some talented position players, I think with Romero, Marcum, RZ, Richmond, Cecil, and the rest of the young guys, not to mention we could get a pitcher in return, we could win at a higher percentage when doc`s not on the mound…
by Lanky07 on Nov 19, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You would have to replace Halladay's 7 WAR (and more)
for less than the $16M (or 3 WAR worth of money) he’s being paid, or the trade is pointless.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
by Torgen on Nov 19, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well that was last year
i think the jays are more concerned about the WAR over the next 6-8 years of the players they get back
by ayjackson on Nov 19, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But if the single year peak doesn't exceed 7
then the trade makes you less likely to make the playoffs in any of those years than in the one year under Doc.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
by Torgen on Nov 19, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
don't forget
you can’t compare the package to just doc you have to compare the package to doc and the players who play with doc.. by bringing in multiple players who, hopefully, provide us with value beyond their dollar value (as doc has) we’re generating wins from multiple positions… to say it differently even if the players we get for doc don’t combine exceed their replacement value by 4 wins they are going to be filling roster spots of players who are playing below replacement value
The choo-choo train left right on time. A ticket costs only your mind.
The driver said, "Hey, man, we go all the way. Of course we were willing to pay.
- My name is Jonas (Gustavsson)- - - Weezer are clearly leafs fans.
by AkiSchennberg on Nov 19, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
By the definition of replacement value
we aren’t going to be replacing guys who are below replacement level with the trade returns, because we could already have got a replacement level guy to play that position for ‘free’. It’s more likely that we’re replacing guys who are above replacement level, but not enough to actually be good. That just further limits the value of the trade returns.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
by Torgen on Nov 19, 2009 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
why not consider cumulative odds?
sure we will certainly have less of a chance of making the playoffs next year, but every year after it would be higher. (not considering the contributions of the two draft picks at this point)
by ayjackson on Nov 20, 2009 8:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We're already on the steep part of the probability distribution function
where marginal wins are key. 90, 83, 83, 83, 83 probably has more chance of making the playoffs in any one year than 87, 87, 87, 87, 87, especially in this division.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
by Torgen on Nov 20, 2009 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
though
90 might not get it done, but if you’re expected wins are 87 every year, you should get lucky and win 93 once or twice, while luck during 83 win seasons probably won’t help make the playoffs.
two post blog entries won’t give this debate justice though. it probably needs beer and wings.
by ayjackson on Nov 21, 2009 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Overbay for Chris Snyder swap would have made no sense if the Jays weren't keeping Halladay
Why would you add $5M in payroll commitments over a 2 year period in which you intend to suck? AA also claimed to have been involved in the Hardy talks, even though we didn’t end up getting him. That’s another player who’s too good to acquire in an offseason where you’re trading Halladay. I think we’re hearing all this Halladay stuff because that’s all anyone’s asking AA, but there’s no there there.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
by Torgen on Nov 19, 2009 3:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
moving Overbay makes great sense regardless of Roy — Jays have a logjam at 1st base
by aagoodfella on Nov 19, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But adding $5M in salary in an Overbay/Snyder deal doesn't make sense
if you’re not trying to be competitive. Raul Chavez could be the everyday catcher if you don’t care whether you’re any good for the next few years.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
by Torgen on Nov 20, 2009 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well you'd be trimming salary in 2010
and then allocating $5m or whatever to the position in 2011.
by ayjackson on Nov 20, 2009 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If your goal is to trim salary in 2010 then you should look to trim more than $1m
and if you trade Halladay then the team won’t be good in 2011 either, so why allocate $5m to any position you’re not already committed to?
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
by Torgen on Nov 20, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it pains me to disagree with you Torgen
because you make me feel like I might be wrong! but I think they can compete without Doc, not only in 2011, but maybe next year. The trades this year will be key, but I can see a team that could be expected to win 82+ wins and perhaps gets lucky.
I guess by “compete”, I mean be competitive. I wouldn’t expect them to win 90, and compete for a wildcard, just be competitive like they have been for the past 4 seasons.
by ayjackson on Nov 21, 2009 9:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I’m just being hopeful that maybe, just this once, the baseball gods will look kindly down upon our long suffering.
by Blue and White Expat on Nov 19, 2009 3:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Texas Rangers
I doubt this trade will happen as I have not heard any rumours yet but i would like to see the rangers go after doc…. They have the players in the farm to get this deal done and the one thing holding the rangers back has always been pitching…. I would like to see doc go to the rangers for 1B Smoak or davis / SS Arias or Endrus / P Holland or Nieves / and maybe if they can grab one of their OF….. although I would make the trade with the 3 mentioned above
by hugiman on Nov 19, 2009 3:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
espn dallas
had a story on the Rangers this week. the deadline for bids for the team is tomorrow. the new owner should be known by the end of the year. and either hicks or daniels is quoted as saying it’ll be business as usual in the offseason but one thing they’re not considering is giving a long rich contract to a pitcher on the wrong side of 30.
by ayjackson on Nov 19, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for trading him
to be honest i’d rather see us trade a player with value for once.. sure it would be painful to see him dominate wearing another jersey and lord help us if its a pinstriped one, but on the flip side we would be realizing value for a player which the jays have a woeful history of not doing.. see: back to back cy young winner for castoff outfielder rejected trade offer
The choo-choo train left right on time. A ticket costs only your mind.
The driver said, "Hey, man, we go all the way. Of course we were willing to pay.
- My name is Jonas (Gustavsson)- - - Weezer are clearly leafs fans.
by AkiSchennberg on Nov 19, 2009 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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