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Monday Bantering: Wishing Beeston Would Shut Up About Doc, Fall League and Scouting

Not a lot of Jay news out there, but over in the Star Morgan Campbell talks to Paul Beeston about  telling the New York Post that Roy Halladay doesn't want to sign here. Beeston "can't figure our why his comments created such a splash in the media". That he wasn't giving the Post any "new information". And yes we all know that. But the question is "why does he feel the need to keep telling the press Doc doesn't want to be here?"

JP Riccardi got roasted over the coals for telling the press he would listen to trade offers for Doc. This time, we were told, it would be done much quieter. And yet every time there is a new reporter within ear shot we have to tell him how much Doc wants out of Toronto. Then we fain surprise that what we said is a story, so that we can tell another reporter that Doc really wants out of Toronto. 

I have to ask, if there a strategy to saying this over and over again? Is there some idea that we haven't got the message yet? Do they think they can get a better deal if they keep telling all the other clubs how desperate they are to make this trade? If we all sign an affidavit stating we know Doc will be traded could they shut up about it for a bit?

The great thing about telling us this over and over, is that they can remind us of corporate message number two: We aren't going to compete next year. Because, heaven forbid we give the public a reason to buy tickets. That meshes nicely with last week's announcement that ticket prices will 'likely' be going up. Who does that? Who tells their customers that prices may be going up. I could understand it if you were saying 'get your tickets now, tomorrow they might cost more'. But no, they are just saying the tickets you buy for next year might be more expensive.

I hope they remember all this next season if ticket sales are down.

Over at bluejays.com Jordan Bastian has a story about Robert Ray pitching in the Arizona Fall League. He was 2-1 with a 4.81 ERA in 7 starts. He struck out 25 in 24.1 innings and walked 7. It is nice to see that he is healthy again. Jordan also lists how other Jays did in the Fall league.

And at Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal talks to Alex Anthopoulos about the Jays renewed emphasis on scouting and the Moneyball vs. traditional methods of putting together teams. Of course since Moneyball was about finding inequities  in the system that would allow small market teams to compete with the rest. Maybe scouting is the in inequity. Billy Beane seem to think so:

"Alex talked to me about it," Beane says. "We've increased our scouting staff, not as dramatically in one year, but over the last couple of years. Everything is about getting as many looks as you can."

To Beane, many small- and mid-market clubs finally grasp that the first step toward success is to go "bottom-heavy," creating a strong foundation of scouting and player development.

And scouting doesn't cost a lot:

"Scouts get paid $30,000-$35,000," Anthopoulos says. "They've got no job security. The reason some scouts are with eight to 10 teams is because there's no loyalty. They have to jump ship for a $2,000-$3,000 raise.

"If we pay our scouts well, allow them to be home more, we'll make it a more attractive place for them to work. Hopefully in time people will say, 'The Blue Jays are doing great things. They're great for my family. It's a great place to work.'"

For now, who is to argue with such a plan?

Hire the best scouts. Find the best players.

I think the idea is good, but saying you are going to find the best players is a lot easier than actually doing it. We'll see if it happens. 

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Solving Second Base

Jul 2008 from Brew Crew Ball - 26 comments

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I like the idea of building up a good scouting organization. If you make a bad decision on a scout contract, it costs you $30-35k (per this article) if you make a bad decision on a player contract, it costs you tens of millions.

Anyhow, the Jays, if they do not want to go toe to toe against the Red Sox and Yankees in deep pocket spending, — and who would want to? — need to develop new strategies. Oakland A’s developed moneyball, Oakland Raiders thrived on hiring players overlooked on the basis of race, Jays need to find their own market inefficiency.

Along those lines, I would suggest that leveraging late developing players like Ruiz could be one market inefficiency as other teams emphasize youth. Players that have show a slower but steady progression could be a valuable way to bolster the lineup. Along another lines, I was disappointed to hear that AA canned Rob Ducey who was doing recruiting in Asia and Europe, markets that may currently be under-scouted. If they replaced him, the point could be moot, but no stone can be left unturned if the Jays are going to focus on building from within.

And yes I agree with Dakers, I hope we have heard the last of Roy talk. We know he wants to win a WS and he has earned the right. He has been a good Blue Jays soldier for years. If he can find a faster path to WS, fine. If folks keep saying he does not want to re-sign, it could eventually make him seem like a whiner which is inaccurate. Everyone knows what needs to be done now,so lets do it and move on.

by aagoodfella on Nov 23, 2009 6:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

They didn't replace Ducey...

they want to focus on the Latin American countries. I like that idea.

by Tom Dakers on Nov 23, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i understand that Latin America is probably a more target rich environment for candidates — but by the same token, there are also lots of scouts for other teams there, so the advantages of scouting there are diminished. In contrast, we have seen a growing number of Japanese and S.Korean players generating good MLB results. If there are fewer scouts in these regions from other teams, than the chances of getting good prospects there could be even more productive than Latin America. Bottom line, I do not think the Jays have a strong enough advantage in scouting that they can afford to neglect any geography. In business terms, they need to develop new markets.

by aagoodfella on Nov 24, 2009 10:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

quick count....

how many Asian players are there in the big leagues? Now how many Latin Americans? Blue Jays have had a scout in Japan for a few years….how many guys has he signed?

by Tom Dakers on Nov 24, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Number of Asian players? not enough obviously. — which just goes to prove how poorly a job MLB is doing in scouting that region

by aagoodfella on Nov 24, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Trading out best players to "give them the chance to win"

seems like an inefficiency 29 other teams would love to exploit.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Nov 23, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

watching him walk away as opposed to pre-emptively trading him to bolster strategy seems to be an even more dysfunctional strategy

by aagoodfella on Nov 24, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If you believe our scouting is as good as they tell us

two top draft picks is likely as good as we’ll get in trade.

by Tom Dakers on Nov 24, 2009 10:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I do not think the Jays scouting is that great. So far, the results have not been that great. This makes trading Roy that much more necessary.

by aagoodfella on Nov 24, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

All we've done this off season is add scouts

and if our scouting is so bad, why let them try to evaluate prospect for Doc?

by Tom Dakers on Nov 24, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yea, but scouting is an investment with a long-term payoff, not a near-term payoff. Trading can generate near-term payoffs (or losses, as it were).

by aagoodfella on Nov 24, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sleepwalking through another year is obviously terrible

Going all in on the one year of Halladay we have left is the best strategy.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Nov 24, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Who is sleepwalking? The Jays still field an above average team.

Do I think they can overtake the Yanks or BoSox? Probably not in the immediate term.

So, if you know Halladay is going to walk at the end of 2010, why not take trade him and extract as much value from the move as you can get? If you are truly focused on building a winning franchise, it is the obvious choice to make. I am a big Roy fan as much as anyone else, but he has been kind enough to advise the Jays that he plans to exercise other options. Clinging to him now is just irrational (restraining order-like) attachment. He is going to go, so do it in a way that best serves the interests of winning. That interest is best served by a trade.

by aagoodfella on Nov 24, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If the Jays make no offseason additions again

that’s sleepwalking. Add Mike Cameron in CF (shifting Wells to RF), get Marcum and maybe McGowan back healthy, and improve Overbay’s platoon partner (if you don’t replace him altogether) and you could be looking at 92 wins. Considering the Yankees are currently focused on bringing back their existing set of aging free agents, that’s a better shot at making the playoffs than if you let them restock with young free agents after 2010 and have to wait for those guys to get old.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Nov 24, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I truly don't understand why they don't try something....

We have to play this season anyway. Signing a couple of guys for a season, doesn’t cost us anything beyond the year, might keep fans going to Rogers Center and might make it possible to move up the year after.

If we do nothing, win just 60 games because we have big empty spaces at SS, C and RF, aren’t we doomed to lose at least for a couple of year after too? It is a lot easier to go from 75 wins to 90 wins that it is to go from 60 wins to 90 wins. Can the franchise survive a couple of 100 loss seasons? We were down to 10,000 fans a game this year, what could we be down to next year? If no one is coming to the games will Rogers still want to put money into the team later? Beeston says they will, but corporations change their minds all time time.

by Tom Dakers on Nov 24, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yep, SS, C and RF need to be addressed

I would like to move Overbay. There are plenty of guys on the roster or pipeline who can do that role (Lind, Ruiz, Dopirak), so he becomes expendable.This is not a comment on him.Just that we have too many guys who can play 1B and not enough who can play SS or OF.

by aagoodfella on Nov 24, 2009 6:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not that anyone is going to give you someone who can play SS

for Overbay.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Nov 24, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

nope, but it frees up some roster space

by aagoodfella on Nov 24, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So Mastroianni did pretty decently in the end, with Emaus as perhaps a single true bright spot among our hitters..

by Woodman663 on Nov 23, 2009 6:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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