Hall of Fame Ballot

by Tom Dakers on Nov 27, 2009 3:25 PM EST in Toronto Blue Jays News

This year's Hall of Fame ballot came out today, the BBWAA get to vote for any of these

The ballot: Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Ellis Burks, Andre Dawson, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile.

There are four former Jays on the list Alomar, Hentgen, McGriff and Morris. Whoops forgot Dave Parker played 13 games for us in 1991 and Dave Segui played 31 in 1999, so I guess there are 6 former Jays. There are also 6 former Expos Dawson, Galarraga, Smith, Raines, Segui and Zeile.

New on the list are Alomar, Larkin, Hentgen, McGriff, Martinez, Galarraga, Jackson, Applier, Reynolds, Zeile, Segui, Venture, Burk, Karros and Langford.

Have to figure Alomar has a good shot at making it. Larkin had 19 good seasons with the Reds but might come up a little short. McGriff had 493 homers in his major league career, but I'm not sure how the voters are looking at home run numbers in the steroid era. Galarraga had 399 homers.

Of the ones returning to the ballot, I'm a huge fan of Andre Dawson and Tim Raines. Bert Blyleven has good numbers. And Mark McGuire, of course, is the wild card. He clearly has the numbers but the Writers punished him last year for his steroid use.

We'll run a series of polls, over the next several days, to see who we would vote in, if we had the vote.

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Comments

Hentgen

I was kinda surprised to see his name on the ballot. Is there some sort of set criteria to get on the ballot or does someone just pick names out of a hat? Once you’re on the ballot, you’re basically on the ballot until you get selected or your 15 years are up right?

Out of all of those guys, I would like to see Morris and Alomar get the selections. I loved the way Morris pitched and Alomar’s homerun against the Eckersly and the A’s in the 1992 AL Championship was arguably the biggest hit in Jays history.

All in all, seems like a bit of a weaker ballot – not a whole lot of surefire gimme names on there.

by masterkembo on Nov 27, 2009 4:58 PM EST reply actions

Players that are on 5% of the writer’s ballots get back on the next year, for up to 15 years. Players that played a minimum of 10 years get on the ballot, 5 years after they retire.

I wouldn’t say it is a weak ballot, got the number 5 guy in career stolen bases, a handful with more than 300 homers, 3 guys with 250+ wins and tones of Gold Gloves between them all.

by Tom Dakers on Nov 27, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

Personally, I’d be surprised in Blyleven didn’t get in this year. I believe it is his final year on the ballot, and I think he’s certainly earned it. I’d expect that Alomar will go in first ballot, maybe Dawson or Morris, but I kind of doubt it. Past those four, I don’t think anyone will get past 50%, and I’d be stunned of McGwire got as many as 25%.

by dexfarkin on Nov 27, 2009 8:23 PM EST reply actions

Alomar and Blyleven deserve to go in. I also believe McGriff and Dawson should get the nod. McGriff and Dawson probably won’t get elected which really makes me mad. Here are 2 guys by most accounts never touched a steroid and are getting penalized for the numbers put up by the steroid users. I would probably go to Cooperstown if both Alomar and McGriff were elected.

by goodbye JP on Nov 27, 2009 11:01 PM EST reply actions

Blyleven, Raines, and Larkin

are most deserving in my book. Dawson has an interesting case, and Alomar will likely get in eventually.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Nov 28, 2009 12:05 AM EST reply actions

Agreed

Though I think Trammell has a pretty good case, too.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Nov 28, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

And Edgar should be interesting

Not sure how to gauge him. If Edgar goes in, I think the Hall might be opening itself up to someone like Richie Allen, who may have been an HoFer, if he could have DHed in his prime

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Nov 28, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

I always figured Martinez would come up short

I didn’t think the ‘counting stat’ numbers were enough for him to get in. Harold Baines had 600 more hits, 80 more homers, 400 more RBI and still only got 5% of the vote last year.

by Tom Dakers on Nov 28, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions

Martinez, Galarraga, Segui; I see all these guys as McGriff Lite, and I think McGriff is iffy whether or not he should go in. About the only argument for McGriff is that Jim Rice got in, and McGriff is certainly in his class.

Personally, of this ballot, Blyleven, Alomar, Larkin, Baines, and McGwire are the only locks I see. Raines, Dawson, McGriff and maybe Morris are on the bubble. I wouldn’t argue if they got in, but I personally would question it. Everyone else, I’d strongly disagree.

by dexfarkin on Nov 28, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

EDIT

Sorry, flipped Raines and Baines by mistake. I think Raines should be a lock, and Baines is a bubble guy.

by dexfarkin on Nov 28, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

by career OPS+

Edgar Martinez: 147
Andres Galaragga: 118
David Segui: 110
Fred McGriff: 134

How about avg/obp/slg?

Martinez: .312 / .418 / .515
Galaragga: .288 / .347 / .499
Segui: .291 / .359 / .443
McGriff: .284 / .377 / .509

Neither Segui nor Galaragga were anywhere close to as good as Edgar and McGriff probably wasn’t as good, either.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Nov 28, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

Edgar was also a career DH, and while that shouldn’t preclude him from the Hall, you have to weight that when making a comparison between him and a player that spent his career in the field as well as at the plate. So Edgar Martinez was a very good hitter, certainly, but shouldn’t a solid career as a fielding 1B put weight for McGriff in comparison? I think so.

That’s why I think Martinez is on the bubble. He was a great Gwynn like contact hitter, had a little power, and was decent enough on the basepath. That is a very good one dimensional player, and that means he’s going to have to be significantly better than a multi-dimensional player to make up for it.

by dexfarkin on Nov 28, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

I said that he was an interesting case

but I think his case is as strong as McGriff’s.

Consider this: the most valuable thing a batter can do is not make an out. Edgar Martinez’s OBP is 22nd best in baseball history. McGriff’s is 194th.

Edgar Martinez was not actually a career DH — he started more than 500 games at 3rd base. A career DH is someone like David Ortiz, who could not play the field at all. According to TotalZone, when he played third, Edgar was actually an above-average fielder. McGriff, on the other hand, was a below-average to average fielding first baseman. Certainly, McGriff should receive more fielding credit than Edgar, but how much more? I highly doubt he should receive enough to make up for 40 points of OBP. McGriff hit almost 200 more homers, but also hit 70 fewer doubles and walked roughly the same number of times in about 1500 more plate appearances.

For what it’s worth, Sean Smith credits Edgar with 67.2 WAR (65th all time) and McGriff with 50.5 (163rd). Big season-wise, Edgar had one 7-win season, three 6-win and five 5-win seasons. McGriff just had two 6-win and one 5-win ones. These stats aren’t necessarily the end-all be-all and I personally like McGriff a lot, but — unless you want to automatically disqualify him for being a DH — Edgar’s got a stronger Hall case.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Nov 28, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions

All Good Points

I don’t really factor in fielding if 80% of your career was spent as a DH, just because I think fielding is a long term thing. Playing solid consistant fielding for over ten years is a combination of mental and physical ability, where as you have guys who have such raw athletic ability when they are young that they can look like excellent fielders, and then turn into error machines the second let lose a little bit due to age and injury.

So, yeah, I guess you can consider them about on the same level of the bubble. I wouldn’t say Martinez is stronger, since I think playing most of, what, 19 years at 1B is a major factor, and the two hundred more HRs does help close some of the gap of the 40 points of OBP. The capacity for potential injury is higher in the field, it’s a more grinding season playing both field and plate; it’s a tough one. I don’t automatically disqualify the DH, but it does hinder them, like being a middle reliever. Hard to say. I will say though that you’re right; McGriff Lite is not an appropriate viewpoint.

by dexfarkin on Nov 28, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

Makes sense

I agree that a player who spends 80% of his career as a DH should be held up to an higher standard the way that a reliever should in comparison to a starter. Also, I didn’t mean to imply Martinez was a good fielder at third, just that he wasn’t entirely incapable of playing the position (at least at first).

As far as the injury likelihood is concerned, you make a great point and it’s especially important with guys who are playing into their late 30’s and early 40’s. Tweaking a muscle here or there, even if it doesn’t keep you out of the lineup, can certainly affect your swing a lot.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Nov 28, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions