Thursday Banterings: End of the Winter Meetings

by Tom Dakers on Dec 10, 2009 11:17 AM EST in News Comment 24 comments

Winter Meetings are over and apparently Alex Anthopoulos is on his way home, still with Roy Halladay on the roster. The latest rumor from Ken Rosenthal has the Phillies are

prepared to offer a package that will likely include J.A. Happ, plus either Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown.

Happ is a proven major league arm, the Phillies would be selling low on him, but to get Doc it would be worth it. Taylor is a little further advanced than Brown, I'd think Brown would need another year of minor league ball.

I'll admit if the Joey Gathright rumor is more than a minor league contract, I'd be very disappointed in Alex.

In news from other teams:

Red Sox and Rangers are still talking a Mike Lowell trade, not sure why the Rangers would want him, but I guess the Red Sox would be paying most of his salary.

The Red Sox also traded for Boof Bonser from the Twins.

The Astros are going to pay former Jay Brandon Lyon $15 million over the next three, which should be a sign you ought to be firing you GM.

And over at SI.com Joe Posnanski has picked his 'Team of the Decade' and Doc is the third man in the rotation behind Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana.

So the meetings are over. The Jays went into the meetings needing an outfielder and a catcher, wanting a starting pitcher and having an Ace that wanted to be traded. They come out of the meetings in the same place. But we did get Zech Zinicola. It must be hard for all the reports that went down to the meetings to turn in their expense statements with a straight face.

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I still think Doc is going to be moved soon. It seems like Phillies and Angels are at the forefront.

Right now, it sounds like the Phillies are a bit tight-fisted to get the deal done, although they do have the assets.

Angels sound like they are more willing to open the trade wallet (in terms of trade assets) but might not have the assets.

Are the RedSox, Dodgers and Yankees lurking in the background, ready to strike with a last second offer that beats the Phillies and the Angels? Yanks and BoSox have the trade assets and Dodgers have been uncharacteristically quiet, perhaps keeping the powder dry. It is tough to tell.

by aagoodfella on Dec 10, 2009 11:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I definately think thats what the Yankees are doing

I don’t know about the Dodgers and Red Sox, but we’ll see some last minute deals coming in from the Yankees so that they don’t have to overpay.

by SPENCEMAN on Dec 10, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It was pretty clear that AA saw the winter meetings as information gathering more than anything. I didn’t think anything significant would get done but I think now is when the “fun” starts.

From the reports, it sounds like the Angels and Phillies are definitely in the mix. Hopefully talks will intensify and he’ll be able to get something done.

Trading Doc is huge and AA will be judged severely on this, he needs to come out on top of this deal and so he’s being very causcious, perhaps too causcious. I dunno.

by Civilizedworm on Dec 10, 2009 11:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I absolutely hate the idea of getting Happ

he was incredibly lucky last year, and pitches in the NL. I wouldnt be surprised to see his ERA be well over 4 if he pitches in the AL East.

Id much rather get Brown/Taylor, Drabek, and one other good prospect for Doc.

I really dont see the Jays getting as much back for Doc as they’d hope. But they do need to pull the trigger on one of these deals.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Dec 10, 2009 1:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I totally agree

I’d rather have Drabek then Happ. Im skeptical on Drabek as well, the Phillies seem to be higher on him then they should be.

by SPENCEMAN on Dec 10, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’d prefer Taylor and Brown to either of them plus Happ.

by Jevant on Dec 10, 2009 1:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I’m not a fan of Happ being a key part of the deal…he’s a back-end rotation option not a front liner like the Jays should be getting for Doc.

Drabek, Taylor and something else would be a better package from the Phils.

by bunner on Dec 10, 2009 3:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Im really sad that we have lost Fabio Castro. I know he was a bit old for a prospect, but I liked how he pitched last year….

and to lose him to the Red Sox hurts a bit more.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Dec 10, 2009 3:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't underpay

for Happ and either Brown/Taylor. It has to be Drabek, Taylor, AND Brown. We’ll take their top prospect(Dominic Brown), their 2nd best prospect(Drabek), and their 3rd best(Michael Taylor).

by BenjiDoc on Dec 10, 2009 5:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

This is what Phillies ante’d up for Cliff Lee:

“Pitching prospects Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, shortstop Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson, are the price tag to acquire the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner.” (JJack made me aware)

source:
http://www.csnphilly.com/pages/landing_09?&DONE-DEAL-Phillies-Acquire-Cliff-Lee-fro=1&blockID=66327&feedID=729

And so now they are offering Happ and Brown or Taylor for Halladay — pfft, get real.

Its Drabek, Brown, Taylor and a catcher prospect. Anyhow, I think the Jays can get better offers from Yanks, BoSox, Angels or Dodgers. I think Phillies may not be able to swing the Halladay deal.

by aagoodfella on Dec 10, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth

You’ll find most Phillies fans believe that Happ and Brown/Taylor (with additional lower prospects) is still better than what they gave up for Lee (and not because of Happ).

Whether or not Halladay is worth such a price, if AA is really holding out for all three of Drabek/Taylor/Brown (or that kind of deal), expect to be losing Halladay for a bottom half of the first round pick and a supplemental pick next year. You never say never, of course, but it’s very difficult to believe any of the approved teams will give up two, let alone three, of their best prospects in a deal.

Now if the Phillies get another team to help make the trade work, that’s another story.

by Aphilfan on Dec 11, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clarification

Meant in a deal for one year of Roy. Multiple years? We’ll see.

by Aphilfan on Dec 11, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I agree with you for a one-year deal, asking for Drabek/Taylor/Brown and another prospect, say catcher, is too much. When I say note that list, it is based on a multi-year deal with Roy, which the Jays have said it is ok to negotiate with Roy. Ultimately, the Jays will get the best trade deal for whatever team comes to terms with Roy for a long-term deal so that is really the tradeable asset being offered by the Jays – a long-term deal with Roy. If the Jays were only trading a single year, than obviously the price comes down.

Afterall, if you get a multi-year deal with Roy you are getting one of, if not the best pitchers in MLB. The guy pitches great and long, is reliable and comes with no baggage. Frankly, if he would re-sign I would rather keep him because I think that all the Jays young pitchers could learn a lot from him, so he has value to the Jays org over and above his onfield performance. But that is water under the bridge now.

Question. I have been reading how Phillies have to move some salary to get Halladay deal done. Assuming Phils can negotiate long-term Halladay deal, and agree to give up Drabek/Brown/Taylor and another prospect, would it help the deal if Jays ate, for example, Blanton’s salary? Would you want to just salary dump him on the Jays? Would you want something back, say Jeremy Accardo or something like that? What you think?

by aagoodfella on Dec 11, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How much is Blanton making

If it is less than 7, I wouldn’t mind. We need an SP b/c of potential injuries, or guys not coming back from injuries.

by Rhinos on Dec 11, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All fair points, though again we come to the question of the effects of a limited market. There’s still only three other teams that are even in the discussion (or at least have been publicly in the discussion), and it’s unclear the degree to which two of them (Yankees and Red Sox) are involved at the moment. Will an extension get you better than Happ/Taylor/Others (for instance)? Probably. But between the limited competition and the idea that they can pursue him after the season as a FA if the Jays don’t trade him would seem to preclude trading all three.

As for Blanton, it’s true that he’s almost certainly not a Phillie if they get far enough with Halladay negotiations. To be honest, I don’t know what the answers to your questions are, since I haven’t seen anything more than fan speculation as far as what they should be getting in return. Blanton’s done a solid job for the Phils the last year plus as a 3/4 starter. Whether he’s been playing the Yanks or the Nats, you can pretty much pencil him in for 6-7 innings at around 3-4 runs allowed. I’m not as up on the advanced stats as others, so I’ll defer to others on those. I’d have to imagine that would net something more than straight cash relief in return, though to what degree I can’t say.

Rhinos – Blanton made about $5.5 million this year, but he’s due a raise in arbitration. CW seems to have him at around $7 mil next year. AA could always negotiate before it reaches that point, though, if they were to acquire him.

by Aphilfan on Dec 11, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You should be more concerned about the Angels. If I was setting odds on who signs Roy, they would be the no. 1 or no. 2, IMHO.

It is unclear what the Yanks are going to do. But they can move markets.

BoSox appear to be using a more stealthy approach and in terms of prospects, they can put together a list that meets or beats what Phillies can offer.

Dodgers have expressed interest but are somewhat guarded and have done little this year. This can mean either they are in disarray or they are bidding their time to make a move on someone like Roy.

by aagoodfella on Dec 11, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I should have mentioned specifically, but the Angels were the fourth team I referred to. I agree they are the most likely to get Halladay if the Phillies are removed.

Agreed on your other points, though.

by Aphilfan on Dec 11, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To the point of interested teams, since you mentioned them above, I wouldn’t count on the Dodgers making too much of a play. It could happen, but with what their ownership is going through it’d be just that much harder to get a deal done.

by Aphilfan on Dec 11, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay... let's negotiate

According to AA, he wants to maximize value and also take into account Doc’s wishes. If speculation is to be believed, Doc would be thrilled going to Philly because they are contenders, have spring training close to his home and family in Florida, and Philly doesn’t have quite the same media intensity as NY or Boston (although it’s close). Also, while AA has announced he is now open to trading in the division (Sox or Yanks), it would obviously still be a less bitter pill to swallow if he didn’t get traded to a rival. Add to that the fact that Boston won’t part with Buchholz and the Yanks have less good prospects in light of the Granderson trade, a deal with the Phils makes sense.

The question is how much. From our point of view, Lee, Doc, and Hamels as our 1, 2, 3 would be devastating. But that leaves us at the mercy of Moyer and perhaps Kyle Kendrick as our No. 4 and 5 starters (assuming Blanton is gone). Not good. We want Happ, and reading the comments on this thread, you all apparently don’t. So he’s off the table.

Domonic Brown and Michael Taylor could be beasts. As painful as it is, we could part with one or (gulp) both of them to do this deal, and possibly a lower level pitching prospect. But that’s it. I understand you want Drabek. But he was a deal breaker last July (when we conceivably could have had two post season runs with Doc), so I see no reason to include him for a trade this year. As for Blanton, he’s a good No. 3 or No. 4, but he will cost about 7 -7.5 million. So, he’s afforable, but do you really want (or need him). What are your thoughts?

by Boundforbeach on Dec 11, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

definitely don't want Blanton

we have a bunch of guys who can do the same job or better for a tiny fraction of the salary.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 11, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Jay’s starting pitching is a big question mark. It is full of young potential and proven starters returning from injury. By that measure, if the Jays took Blanton, he could wind up being, god help us, 2 or 3 (or worse 1) in the rotation. On the other hand, if these young starters prove to be as good as they (sometimes) showed and Marcum / Macgowan return from injury, Jays may not even have room for Blanton. In that case, the Jays would probably have to move Blanton again, and eat part of his salary, but even if the Jays had to eat a $3M to get the trade done, I think it might be ok.

It is tough to see this trade getting done without Happ or Drabek. Brown is a very early prospect, so I would probably discount his value more than you. Taylor, at this stage anyway, seems a better prospect. When you are talking Brown & Taylor and no pitcher, or Happ and only Brown OR Taylor, than I think the rumored Angels deal (Saunders, Aybar, Boujos) looks more appealing to the Jays.

by aagoodfella on Dec 11, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But he was a deal breaker last July

And a smart move by the Phillies. Without Drabek in their system, the Phillies would have never won the World Series.

Oh, wait….

by dexfarkin on Dec 11, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Phils Phan

I have been reading the comments, but this one I will reply to. Halladay or Lee? Having Halladay instead would have made NO difference . The Phillies won all the playoff games Lee started, the problem that sunk them in the series was a weak bench and a struggling bullpen. Martinez ran out of gas in game 2 and was kept in too long, plus he got no run support. Hamels unraveled in game three and we all saw Lidge blow game 4. Games 1 and 5 wins for the Phillies with Lee pitching. To win in the regular season you need more than 3 starting pitchers if we trade Drabek, Blanton and maybe Happ to get Halladay, we have Halladay, Hamels, and Lee with no one else to start except Moyer who is 48 and coming off surgery and an unproven rookie in Kyle Kendrick.

We don't play stats, we play baseball.

by W.P.M on Dec 12, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At this point, I would hope that the Jays have an idea of what teams are willing to trade for Roy. With that knowledge in hand, I would hope that Roy’s camp starts talking to interested teams about a potential deal for Roy. We would not want the Jays to come to terms on a trade only to see it scuttled by a Halladay veto.

by aagoodfella on Dec 10, 2009 6:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs