Roy Halladay Trade: Thread Two
by Tom Dakers on Dec 14, 2009 8:25 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays News
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PrintSince the first thread is getting pretty long I thought I'd start another thread. Thankfully I'm out for the evening, so I can't obsess about all the rumors. Cause you know I would if I wasn't going out.
Anyway latest rumors:
- J.A, Happ, Joe Blanton and Domonic Brown all took physicals today, suggesting they could be part of a trade. I can't think Blanton is coming here but I've been wrong often.
- Bob Elliot says Phillippe Aumont is not part of the trade.
- Kyle Drabek isn't part of the deal. Likely.
- Aumont (yeah I know contradicts the other rumor) likely and Saunders maybe involved.
- Travis D'Arnaud and Michael Taylor might be involved.
So really the only thing I know is I'm not involved in the trade. If you come across more rumors tonight, post them in the comments.
Other things did happen today. John Bucks signing is officially announced.
Hideki Matsui was signed by the Angels.
Red Sox and Mike Cameron are talking. And as mentioned before the Red Sox signed John Lackey.
If you come across new rumors tonight, post them in the Comm
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So much...
prospect pornography.
A Toronto sports blog, where unabashed homerism is alive and well...
by eyebleaf on Dec 14, 2009 8:25 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
This whole mess
summed up in four neat little words. Well done.
There is some Chatter on Bastian
about Ace (Jays mascot) going to Philadelphia and Phillies fanatic going to Seattle, but I am skeptic
Remo posted, he thinks T.O. relievers could be on the move
Particularly their relievers:
Accardo
League
Frasor
Downs
all have some value for contending teams
whoa
apparently we just signed ramon castro. Was not expecting that at all.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/toronto-signs-ramon-castro.html
Or did I miss something here?
wow, AA is going crazy
We just signed Ramon Castro to a 1 yr deal $1 mil, according to MLBTR.
We just got our back Catcher I guess.
Just posted on this....
I don’t understand signing Raul and Ramon….unless we want to corner the market on defensive catchers. One would imagine we aren’t getting a major league ready catcher in the Doc trade.
anyone know about his defense?
career .723 OPS is not bad for a Catcher.
yeah, for 1 mil, I won't complain then
It’s a nice luxury to have a 3rd Catcher in AAA (Chavez). Injury-prone position.
From Phillies banter
Once the extension is complete, the Phillies are expected send three prospects to Toronto. A source identified those prospects as Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis D’Arnaud. The Blue Jays would also get a prospect from Seattle, possibly Canadian pitcher Phillippe Aumont. The Phillies could also end up with a prospect from Seattle. The Mariners are a key to the deal as they are expected to get Cliff Lee and his $9 million salary from the Phillies. The Phillies have a strict $140 million payroll so moving Lee appears to be a necessity.
Halladay will make $15.75 million in 2010. The Phillies are expected to cover the bulk of that salary with the $9 million they are freeing up by trading Lee, as well as a $6 million payout from the Blue Jays
http://www.csnphilly.com/pages/landing_09?Fever-Pitch-Pursuit-of-Halladay-Almost-O=1&blockID=103216&feedID=704
come on now...
The power of positive thinking can go a long way – lol
I just can't believe the Phillies would be pull the trigger on that
That’s three top-5 prospects for not that much in return
Mariners don't have what we need
The system, as it stands now, is strong in pitching and the outfield, but the infield is far weaker. Seattle doesn’t have IF prospects (from what I’ve heard).
In general, what are Phils fans reaction to this so far?
Positive? Negative? Meh?
Patiently negative
As in “We don’t like what we’re hearing, but we’re hearing so many different things it’s hard to know what to believe.”
Generally, we’re assuming Lee is gone, and while we know we’d have to give up something extra to make the deal work the idea of giving up a top prospect on top of our ace is quite unpopular. When you get to two or three top prospects on top of Lee, Amaro might get run out of town.
Yes
But the idea would be that if we’re giving up Lee to the Mariners then they should be picking up the prospect slack on Toronto’s end.
Again, everyone would be happy, in a vacuum, to have Halladay. And everyone knows the proposition is expensive. But to give up Lee to make it happen, that’s already going in for a fair bit. I think my limit would be (from the Phils end) Lee to Seattle and Taylor and D’Arnaud to Toronto. Seattle can fill in the rest with their guys.
you are essentially locking in top tier pitching talent for multi-years instead of one year and spreading the cost over two teams (Phillies & Ms) (or arguably 3 teams, as Jays are eating $6M of Roy’s salary)
Can I get a source on the $6m?
I believe you, just hadn’t picked that up from what I’ve seen and with all the theories running around it’s easy to miss things.
I tend to agree with A Phil Fan
on the Phils perspective. I understand how they would want Seattle to kick in a bit. That said, I have heard that Seattle will be sending a couple prospects to the Phillies.
I think that the reason Seattle got involved
Was to take Lee of the Phillies hand since they would probably lose him to free agency, so Seattle has to give the Phils their prospects as the Phils give the Jays their prospects and keep Seatles so their farm system won’t be so depleted
well that would be a pretty sweet deal for you — i think that is a bit of a fantasy
you are suggesting
Phillies ship (1 year) Lee to Ms, Ms send a prospect basket with a value of say $X
Then Phillies ship their own prospect basked to Jays, worth $X
Jays ship (multi-year) Roy to Phillies (and maybe Jays pay $6M of Roy salary)
So basically, from a Philly perspective, the prospect baskets are a wash and Phillies trade up for 1-year of top tier pitching to multi-year top tier pitching (plus, maybe $6M of Jays money).
Ummm, yea, I would say a reality pill would be in order there.
zero cost to Phillies or even a $6M subsidy from T.O. so they can lock in top-tier pitching for multiple years … LOL — I want you negotiating for me
Bearsfan's ideas
are basically what Stark is saying the framework of the deal is.
Phils: Halladay and 2 M’s prospects
Mariners: Lee
Jays: Aumont, D’Arnaud and another Phillies prospect, which I’d imagine is one of the “big 3.”
Don’t know what you guys think of Jayson Stark, but as a former Phillies beat writer he tends to have pretty good sources.
After just agreeing with phil fan, as a jays fan I want one more legit prospect, or guy mlb ready and joe blanton, as opposed to kicking in the 6 mil. I think I am in the minority on blanton, but I think he will be serviceable as long as we get the top prospects as well
by Rhinos on Dec 14, 2009 9:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not a bad trade
Getting those 3 from Philly and Aumont from Seattle would be a pretty nice trade even though it’ll mean no more Halladay. Let’s hope it’s some like this, and maybe more.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Got this from Mariners banter
7:04pm: Drabek and "other top [Phillies] prospects" will be involved in the deal, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (via Twitter). According to Salisbury, Brown will remain with the club.
Posted that one in the previous thread.
Best to go to MLBTraderumors.com and keep hitting refresh.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
The thing is, we were basically prepped for this for the past year.
I basically said my goodbyes with Doc last trade deadline… all the starts afterwards just didn’t feel the same.
Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...
Its fine that we trading Halladay
We won’t contend this year so Halladay would leave us at the end of the season might as well get prospects and have Halladay leave happy to the Phil’s
Bob Elliot says Drabek is coming to Toronto....
Which would be a wow to me….I didn’t think he was going to be in it. Let’s hope. While I’m out they can finish the deal.
Drabek + D'Arnaud from Phils and ??? from Mariners
seems to be where we are at so far.
Onions Baby Onions
A quick break from speculation
for a little interesting history lesson. Phillies fans who have been around for a bit know both sides of this. The early 80’s teams that went to two World Series fell apart quickly after that because they dealt away five players for Von Hayes and three players for Ivan DeJesus. Included in each of those deals were prospects. For Von Hayes, they traded away a young Julio Franco, who only retired a few years ago. For Ivan DeJesus, they sent Ryne Sandburg to the Cubs.
Different circumstances and players inferior to Doc? Sure. But if we’re talking about fan reaction you’d best believe Sandburg and Franco come up a lot when trading prospects comes up. Think of it as trade PTSD.
But Phils fans also know how important it is to get value for your ace. The Schilling trade (Omar Daal, Travis Lee, Vincente Padilla and Nelson Figuroa) was the definition of trading in a dollar for, um, two pennies, a nickel, and a dime. So seventeen cents. This sounds right to me somehow.
Anyway, while you’ll get the odd crazy head who’ll say other wise, there is an appreciation of the value of Halladay (and of Lee, for that matter) because of stuff like this.
MLB Trade Rumours...
Now has Aumont to Phillie in the deal
Hmmm, interesting. I hadn't thought of that.
Jays: Drabek, Brown, D’Arnaud, Saunders
Phils: Aumont
Mariners: Lee, Accardo
Saunders is a bit of wishful thinking there
I think he’s probably the only M’s piece not legitimately in play
If Drabek's in the deal
Brown’s not. Guaranteed.
I really dont like Drabek that much
but i guess hes better than Aumont…. although Aumont sounded like hed love to play for TO, whereas Drabek seems to be a punk ass kid who thinks hes hot sh*t.
Drabek being in the deal completely rules out Taylor and Brown IMO.
Looks like Drabek, D’Arnaud, and someone from the Mariners…
Onions Baby Onions
For what it's worth
Haven’t heard much bad about Drabek’s attitude, at least since his injury. Seems to have matured a bit since he came out of high school. Not that he’s a saint, just that the ego seems to have been deflated a little.
Fair Trade
Bouncing these all around, this is how I might sum it up as a fair trade for the Jays:
3 from Group A and 1 from Group B
GROUP A
- Drabek
- Brown
- Taylor
- Saunders
- Aumont
GROUP B
- Knapp
- D’Arnaud
What you think?
I agree
I think we include a reliever to get that though
by canadiancolts on Dec 14, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I'd bite at 3 from your group A
But 2 from group A, 1 from group B, and someone else would be fair in my mind.
I'll take
Drakek, Saunders and either Brown or Taylor from Group A
D’Arnaud from Group B
And be happy :)
Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.
by craig in calgary on Dec 14, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
Knapp is in Cleveland
as part of the Lee deal.
And if you replace Knapp with Happ, I think two of Drabek and Brown/Taylor, plus one of the M’s A’s, plus one of the B’s is a really good deal for Toronto to the point that it’s a bad deal for the Phils if it happens.
PHILLIES negotiating 4-year extension
TorStar (Griffin) is talking 5 years as a Phillie for Roy:
Reports from Fox Sports and news outlets in Philadelphia indicate that negotiations are well underway with the Phillies on an extension that would carry Halladay an additional four years beyond 2010 and preclude the need of his going the free-agent route.
Wow. Five year of Roy Halladay. That is soooooooooooo 3 Group A players and 1 Group B. Sorry, Phillies loyalists, 5-years of Roy is definitely worth that. You just need bear down and do it.
by aagoodfella on Dec 14, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Just my opinion, but I think the Jays will get more than what people around here seem to think
On that note, I’m heading out and will check in tomorrow to see what the newest rumours are.
I agree
The stuff I’ve read lately looks like we will be getting a pretty decent package!
Here’s hoping!
Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.
by craig in calgary on Dec 14, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
can i have a link to taylor stats
please?
I’m getting really excited and at the same time very sad to see my fav Jays go.
Ok, just about ready to pack it up because I get more and more confused
Griffin is now suggesting that Happ and Aumont to Toronto, and Taylor to Seattle along with Lee.
The Taylor part alone is so absurd, I think its time to just give up, and wait to see where these chips fall.
Stark has, in my mind, the most plausible iteration
Which is Taylor, Drabek and D’Arnaud to Toronto, Aumont to Phillie.
I’d happily live with that.
Just to complete that thought
The only other component moving would be Gillies to Phillie along with Aumont.
So, it’s really like two simultaneous deals, than a real three-way.
no way … five years of Roy (see above) … T.O. gets Aumont
we can throw in Accardo if it makes the deal palatable
by aagoodfella on Dec 14, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Taylor/Brown + Drabek + D'Arnaud
seems most likely and would make me pretty happy.
1 of the M’s prospects thrown in there would make it a great deal… but i dont think i’d complain either way.
Onions Baby Onions
yea, Taylor/Brown + Drabek + D’Arnaud + Aumont or Saunders
If Phillies do not offer that forget it .. 5 freakin years of Roy, you think Arte Moreno will not pay up the equivalent of that in prospects
heck, what would the Yanks offer for 5 years of Roy?
get serious
by aagoodfella on Dec 14, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure so sure
Its not really as simple as saying we’re trading 5 years of Halladay. What we are really trading is the right to sign Halladay outside of a crazy bidding war next summer.
The Jays are in a position of weakness here – basically, everyone knows we need to move before spring training.
So, I think Taylor, Drabek and D’Arnaud is actually pretty great, and at least a bit more than I was expecting a few days ago.
If the M’s throw in a little bit more, then its fantastic, but not really a dealbreaker either way for me.
Roy is a coveted asset. He has scarcity value. If he is willing to sign for 4 more years (effectively a 5 year deal), believe me, there are plenty of teams that would line up for that. If I was AA, I would definitely not settle for less than:
3 from Group A and 1 from Group B
GROUP A
* Drabek
* Brown
* Taylor
* Saunders
* Aumont
GROUP B
* Knapp
* D’Arnaud
by aagoodfella on Dec 14, 2009 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty much this
is the reason why Phillies fans are upset at Amaro. They have Lee if they don’t do this deal and the picks that come with him, plus their prospects, plus the chance that Halladay doesn’t get dealt (or is somehow available again in July). They should be dictating the price, while it looks like they’re anxious to keep throwing valuable pieces into the deal until everyone says “yes.”
Then I'd say forget it.
Take Lee for a year and roll the dice in the offseason. Lee plus a full haul for Halladay is close to organizational suicide, extension or not.
I’d encourage the Jays to shop a deal in that instance.
To be honest, this is a problem that I expected so I was kind of surprised to hear about a Phillie deal. Basically, I did not figure Phillies to be the trade partner on this deal anyway because they blew off so much prospects for Lee. I figured it would be Angels or Yankees. We shall see.
But yea, for five years of Roy, I think the Jays can do a bit better. Most I could do is Roy, +$6M of salary + (Accardo or Overbay if interested) for the 3A1B deal. However, if the Phillies could find another 3rd party to take Lee that will replace the Saunders, Aumont pieces in the equation, it still might be doable.
Of course, we are all negotiating with ourselves here and Sportsnet said the deal is about to go down, so my ambitions may be thwarted. LOL
by aagoodfella on Dec 14, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
yeah but i think the Ms are not giving up much
i very happy if we get Taylor/Drabek/D’Arnaud but if we can squeeze in Triunfel that will make a hell of a deal.
Last year, the Phillies traded Triple-A right-hander Carlos Carrasco, Class A righty Jason Knapp, catcher Lou Marson, and short stop Jason Donald for one year of Cliff Lee cuz they nickled and dimed around on a deal with Roy Halladay.
Now they have a chance to lock in Roy, a super talented pitcher, workhorse and super ambitious for a WS ring, for FIVE YEARS. Are the Phillies going to risk it again over a prospect? If the Jays do not get 3 from group A and 1 from group B, I think the Jays should shop the deal to LA or NY.
GROUP A
* Drabek
* Brown
* Taylor
* Saunders
* Aumont
GROUP B
* Knapp
* D’Arnaud
At least put Happ in Group B
Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.
by craig in calgary on Dec 14, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
If the Phils get Halladay now,
it makes the July deal a bad one. They will have potentially given up Drabek, Taylor, D’Arnaud, Marson, Carrasco, Knapp, Marson and Donald for an Ace and Aumont.
If they just would have traded for Halladay at the deadline, they could’ve saved a boatload of prospects.
yep, one prospect difference last year and they could have had Roy for 5or 6 years
by aagoodfella on Dec 14, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
Which is why I'm hoping it's one of the earlier iterations of the deal
or that it falls through. That’s eight of top ten prospects.
And for the record, no one player is worth that and Aumont doesn’t offset any of the pitching prospects they gave up.
My 2 cents
I like the deal of Taylor/Drabek/D’Arnaud for Doc it would be great to get one more prospect from the Mariners in this deal but either way the Jays acquire a potential front line starter likely ready for the bigs in 2010 some time, A RF that is ready for the bigs and with his size/athletecism could become a real force offensively and a catcher for the future that is likely 2-3 years away. Not a bad haul for Doc at this point in time.
Now, if the Jays could throw something Seattle’s way and get SS prospect Carlos Trunifel that would essentially fill all the major organizational holes the Jays were looking to in a potential Halladay deal.
Regardless of anything this is AA’s career making move and he’s been a GM for what 2 months? If these players pan out he’ll be haileda genius and stay employed for a long time if they don’t he’ll be lucky to find another job in the bigs….at least we can’t say he stood still and did nothing.
Just a thought here.
what if the Jays were to ship Overbay to Seattle to get Trunifel or someone else for that matter? Weren’t they interested in Lyle earlier this off-season?
Seattle is putting up a big push for the AL West crown….
Aphilfan: here is the latest update
Here’s how the deal seemed to be shaping up at 10 p.m. Monday night: The Phillies would get Halladay and $6 million from Toronto. Seattle would get Lee and send the Phillies two or three players. One of those players could be sent to Toronto. The Phillies would send at least two of their own prospects to Toronto. According to a person with knowledge of the talks, the Phillies have decided to include Drabek in the deal. Drabek had been considered untouchable when the Phillies pursued Halladay in July. The Phillies are also expected to send another prospect to Toronto, either outfielder Michael Taylor or catcher Travis d’Arnaud, according to sources. A person with knowledge of the talks said top outfield prospect Domonic Brown was not in the deal.
one prospect away from a deal IMHO
done deal in your view
tic tic tic
If I was AA, I would call Arte and the Yanks and say, “look here is what we got. It is so close, we are off by only one prospect. We even offered to throw in Accardo, but they will not budge. What you think? Can you gives us 3A1B?”
by aagoodfella on Dec 14, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
Saw that
and I still maintain that’s too high, unless the Mariners are going to be sending back more than Aumont.
Appreciate the update.
I'll bid adieu for the night
Thanks for the great hospitality. Hope to have some more great talk tomorrow.
you guys are all hung up on Phillies getting Halladay for 5 years
but the jays are not trading 5 years of halladay. They are trading ONE year of halladay and the phillies are doing the rest. To me the Phillies options are:
A)Sell the farm, get a minor upgrade from Lee to Halladay this year plus 4 more years, or
B)dont give up ANY prospects, keep Lee a year, and try sign one of them next season. Doc will only command significantly more money than 20mil a year if he stays healthy and has another great year(something we take for granted in Toronto, but not a given.
As a jays fan i put almost no value in an ace giving us 30 starts in a rebuilding year but alot of people seem to be hung up on how the Phillies would be robbing us if we dont get a boatload of top prospects.
by ucantcoachthat on Dec 14, 2009 11:32 PM EST reply actions
I regret to inform you, that I cannot recommend you for the role of GM with the Toronto Blue Jays. ;-)
by aagoodfella on Dec 14, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
so what would you do if you were AA
obviously debating a trade that we know absolutely zero specifics on is silly, but how can you justify not moving Halladay for really ANY of the rumours out there? I think its fair to assume if the Angels were offering anything close to this we would have heard something about it… i dont see any other team that might make an offer close to what the Phillies are, not to mention one Halladay would go to and extend with.
by ucantcoachthat on Dec 14, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
well, the group has already stated tonight that we all realize we are negotiating with ourselves and talking out our butts etc … so I will acknowledge your point
what I have suggested is that the Jays would like the following, three from Group A and one from Group B or the 3A1B formula:
GROUP A
* Drabek (Phil prospect)
* Brown (Phil prospect)
* Taylor (Phil prospect
* Saunders (Seattle prospect)
* Aumont (Seattle prospect)
GROUP B
* Happ (Phil prospect)
* D’Arnaud (Phil prospect)
In exchange the Jays are offering Roy, who appears will to sign a 4 to 5 year contract extension, possibly some salary assistance in the first year and perhaps another player, if necessary to get the job done (say Accardo or Overbay).
Right now, it seems Philly (at least from press and blogs) wants to do 2A1B, for Roy + $6M.
So, I have suggested two alternatives (1) find another third party other than the Ms who want Cliff Lee and can help fill out the Group A and Group B lists better than Ms or (2) shopping the deal to other teams, say Angels or NYY to see if they would do 3A1B. (For example, Angels are weak in relief so they mind find the addition of the Accardo sweetener a bit more appealing or they might even be willing to step into the Ms role, take Cliff Lee and Accardo and offer up a richer prospect selection so that Jays can get 3A1B).
by aagoodfella on Dec 14, 2009 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
anyhow, good night for tonight, maybe this gets done tomorrow
by aagoodfella on Dec 14, 2009 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
I'm with you.
But I’d prefer the best package possible, hehe. I think while the Phillies aren’t acquiring 5 years of Halladay. He has more value then Lee in a long term aspect if he’s willing to sign a more favorable contract. That’s probably the selling point, it’s not explicitly 4-5 years of Halladay but it’s to make sure that the Phillies have a dominant ace for the next while which is pretty important.
AWmusic - mp3 blog.
http://twitter.com/awmusicblog
i absolutely agree
but there has to be a middle ground between potential value to the phillies and lack of value to the jays.
by ucantcoachthat on Dec 14, 2009 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
well the phillies are giving up boatload of prospects for Doc but also replenishing their system by moving Lee…prospects are almost a wash for the Phillies and they get a nice upgrae in Doc over Lee HUGE win for the Phillies
Disagree here
Because the prospects they’re getting back aren’t close to the ones they’re sending out. If the reports are true, D’Arnaud might be higher ranked than any of the M’s guys.
(If that’s not the case, the other two are far and away beyond even Aumont.)
i think you are suffering from a bit of attachment anxiety to your prospects
by aagoodfella on Dec 15, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
He's right that the prospects they are giving up are much closer to the Majors, better prospects...
but….they get Doc, it’s a win.
so this isn't a three- way trade
cuz it seems that we’re not sending anybody to Ms and they giving any to the Jays.
right?
depends on who you read where
theres been about 1000 different combinations. Wait a few hours and the stories will morph into a 4 team deal, haha
by ucantcoachthat on Dec 14, 2009 11:44 PM EST reply actions
Sportsnet reporting Drabek
So who really knows until it’s done. Regardless, I think it’s going to be a decent trade. I hope.
by BigTimeBlueJayFan on Dec 15, 2009 1:19 AM EST reply actions
Glad he is going to Philly
When it became obvious that Roy was going to be traded. I hoped it would be to the phillies. Now it appears that is happening, I think the package of Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud is a pretty good one. I will miss Roy in a Blue Jay uniform, but look forward to him winning 25 games for the Phillies and leading them to a 3rd straight world series. Maybe Toronto fans will get to see him pitch in Toronto in the June interleague series.
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