Wednesday Open Thread: the Aftermath
by hugo on Dec 16, 2009 11:00 AM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays News
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PrintJust wanted to check in with some links around the blogosphere about the Halladay trade and then open it up to y'all:
- At Fangraphs, Dave Cameron takes a look at the trade (not the Wallace-Taylor part):
- Also at Fangraphs, Dave Allen takes a look at Roy Halladay's stuff. Yeah, he's good. Now, I don't get why Philadelphia felt like they had to deal Cliff Lee on the same day they acquired Doc, since it really wasn't a three team trade. I would've thought they could have done better holding on to him for the best possible return, considering that worst-case scenario is probably a year of Cliff Lee well below market value for a competing team, followed by Type A free agent status. That said, I don't get why Phillies fans aren't happier with the deal. You got Roy Halladay, guys. It's a win. And he signed a team-friendly extension, and you replenished your farm system a bit by dealing Lee.
- The Hardball Times likes the deal for the Jays too, including the acquisition of Wallace for Taylor:
I disagree with the characterization of last year's trade deadline as a "debacle" other than perhaps as a media debacle, but I otherwise generally agree with this.Let’s start with the Blue Jays. They were obviously over a barrel with Halladay after the debacle of trying to trade him this summer. New GM Alex Anthopolous knew he needed to move his ace for the best package he could get, but also come away with enough young talent to sell this as more than an admission that they screwed up in July. In the trio of young players they’re getting from the Phillies, they were able to do just that.
Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud are high quality prospects. For one year of Halladay (and $6 million in cash, which isn’t trivial but less useful to a Toronto team that won’t win in 2010), that’s a very strong return. Anthopolous did well to come away with that level of talent, given his leverage in the situation.
Toronto made out extremely well, netting a high-upside pitcher in Kyle Drabek that they don't have anywhere in the system. Toronto has solid rotation depth, especially in the major leagues, but no one you can give the ball to on Opening Day and expect to win. Drabek can be that guy.
Travis D'Arnaud has been coveted by Toronto ever since he was selected a pick ahead of the Jays in 2007. The Blue Jays have J.P. Arencibia in their farm system, but there are questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and D'Arnaud is the better value anyways. Michael Taylor was a Blue Jay for only the briefest of moments, as he was immediately shipped to Oakland for Brett Wallace.
While Taylor might evolve into a 20/20 player and provide good overall value out of the outfield, Wallace is the type of hitter Toronto needs in its next wave of youngsters. Toronto absolutely needs the upside that Wallace brings with the bat and can afford to worry about defense later. Assuming Wallace can't stick at third (which is not a done deal just yet), he has the options of moving to first or designated hitter, with no one blocking him at either position.
Toronto has put themselves in great position to field a young, competitive club as soon as 2012. That's all they could have asked for in a trade of Halladay.
I have to admit, I wasn't crazy about moving Taylor for Wallace at first, as it seems like Wallace will have to move to first base and I was looking forward to a season of Taylor, not Jose Bautista, in right field for the Jays in 2010 (and beyond). But the more I think about it, the more I'm pleased that the Jays have decided to go with the best talent they can get - I think it shows confidence in evaluation and in the ability to deal one of their 1st basemen/DH types if it comes to it. Overbay is clearly on his way out, Cooper is a big question mark, I like Dopirak well, but Ruiz can't be thought of as any time of long-term plan.
- The Drunks have a run-down of Keith Law's comments on the deal. Law doubts Drabek can be a true ace because of the lack of a great third pitch, but likes him as a number two or, at worst, a number three. He thinks Wallace will be a great hitter, albeit as a first-baseman. And he projects d'Arnaud as a solid everyday catcher. Sounds like a plan to me. \
- Jordan Bastian mentions what seems inevitable, that Overbay is on his way out, at the latest after 2010, that Cooper's stock has fallen, and that the Jays are considering moving Wallace to third base. I don't see the harm in keeping Wallace at third base in AAA if he's not going to make the major-league roster, though, unless they want to try Scott Campbell everyday at third in Las Vegas again.
What say you, banterers?
Update: 1:30 pm. Apparently, someone failed a physical, potentially putting the deal in jeopardy depending on who it is. We've heard it wasn't Doc or Cliff Lee (can you imagine Doc failing a physical? I think the treadmill used for the stress test would fail first) or Phillipe Aumont, so who?
Update^2: 2:45 pm. Blair says the entire physical-failing rumor was completely false, and other sources are confirming that the deal is final and there will be a Doc press conference this afternoon. That was a weird hour.
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i say that id like to see some of the younger guys on the roster on opening day
if we’re working this year to build these prospects, why couldn’t a guy like brett wallace who performed fairly well at AAA make the major league team? See what he can do in the majors…While Ruiz I loved watching last year when he was allowed some atbats, but he isnt the long term answer for sure but perhaps Dopirak can be given an opportunity as well? And why do we not think Mike McCoy is a reasonable SS option that we are starting Alex Gonzalez instead? As a fan, I think it’s more exciting to see new young players get an opportunity who may have a chance to succeed rather than cheering on the same older players who you know have already hit their ceiling and are on the way down, specifically obervay and bautista. those two roster spots would seem much better served to me with new young talent that we can use to evaluate our younger players and give them a chance.
The trade is ok. I do not think it is great, but certainly respectable. I disagree with the characterization that Jays had no leverage. Roy is the best, or one of the best in baseball, so creating a deadline puts as much pressure on teams looking to acquire Roy as it does on those looking to move him.
I do think this is a three team trade, even though many folks say not. Phillies had budget limitations and prospect concerns neither of which could have been addressed with a trade that include them and the Jays alone. The Ms role in the trade was to provide the necessary transaction to facilitate the deal. They were essential.
Agreed.
Technically it’s a 4-team swap because AA may not have made the deal if he didn’t think he could pry the jewel that is Brett Wallace away from Oakland in exchange for Michael “might as well be washed up already” Taylor.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
I don't think that AA was some sort of wizard
my take from this is that having the best pitcher in baseball creates its own sort of leverage
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
This makes me laugh.
A) AA is a terrible GM for not getting a good return in the trade.
or
B) AA is a terrible GM because ANYBODY could have gotten that return for one of the best pitchers in baseball.
/facepalm
Why do we do this to ourselves?
huh?
you must be referring to someone else, because I’ve already said I thought AA did a very nice job with this trade. But I do think, and this is a somewhat nuanced point, that that it is overstating the case slightly to state that AA had absolutely “no leverage” because I think when you are dealing the best pitcher in the game, almost no matter the circumstances, you have some leverage.
For example, look at the much lesser return the Phillies got for Lee, a very good pitcher. But it is to AA’s credit that he recognized that and maximized the return and I never implied otherwise. I just don’t think he fleeced anyone or pulled some kind of trickery – it was just that teams really wanted Doc and were willing to give up a lot for him, particularly when Doc was willing to sign an extension and AA was able to sell the deal as getting 4 years of Halladay, not 1.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Oh, maybe I wasn't.
I’m just tired of people poking holes in this deal.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
fair enough
but if you read the original post, you know I am a fan of the deal
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Yeah
I appreciate that… that was more of a vent at the fans who criticize everything no matter what… I’m an emotional trainwreck just thinking about an opening day sans Roy.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
totally agree
I am not looking forward to seeing him pitch somewhere else
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
also agree
I was just thinking about watching the Jays without Roy this year. It’ll kind of be like watching the Leafs without Sundin. They’ve been my 2 favorite athletes the last 10 years plus…
How they made out, IMHO (in order of success):
(1) Yesterday, some mainstream media were questioning the trade saying Phillies wound up no better. That was crazy. One year of Cliff Lee (+ compensatory picks) is worth much less than 4+ years of Roy (at a good price) + $6M less a little dilution in the minor league system (3 out net of 3 in – Aumont, Ramirez, Gillies, albeit slight trade down). The Phillies made off very well.
(2) Roy was destined to leave the Jays after 2010 at which point Jays would have received compensatory picks. Surely those picks would not have produced Drabek, Taylor (Wallace) and D’Arnaud. By that measure the Jays are better off, but the price was a year of Roy and $6M. Close to a wash.
(3) Ms gave up three good prospects for a year of Lee + compensatory picks, if he leaves post 2010. Since the Ms have made some bold off-season moves here and are making a legitimate run at the playoffs they are probably trading off some long-term for short-term. It is a bit of a gamble that may or may not pay-off.
I agree with Hugo
I like how the Jays have acquired the best talent they could in a tough situation.
I’d like to see Overbay moved now for anything they can get and let Ruiz/Dopirak battle in the spring for the 1B job. If one of them does well and can handle the job it allows the Jays to keep Wallace in AAA to work on his defence at 3B. If neither can handle the job and Wallace’s bat is ready then they can call him up to take over at any point.
- back to the actual trade, to make it an actual 3-team deal I’d love to see the Jays include Overbay/Accardo and maybe some cash to Seattle and get either SS Trunifel or OF Saunders back but I think that’s a pipe dream now.
I would like Lind at 1B since he seems like a longer-term Jays solution. Then, I would plug in Ruiz as DH, because, in a best-case scenario, he stays in that role with the Jays for three to four years.
by aagoodfella on Dec 16, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
The Jays don’t seem to keen on that idea but I guess long-term if Wallace is the 3B then Lind could be the 1B.
I keep thinking though of Wallace’s move from 3B to 1B as maybe a good thing, I remember 2 other former 3B that moved to 1B because of their D…Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira maybe there’s something to it :)
SS Trunifel
I’m really not high on this guy. He’s got great tools, but there’s something about him that just screams Junior Felix to me. According to reports, he’s got not a great attitude, poor conditioning, starting to rack up injuries; I wouldn’t spurn him as part of a deal, but I wouldn’t target him either.
The more i think about it, the more im pissed
alright so this is how the trades worked:
jays trade to philly:
Roy halladay (greatest)
6 million dollars
Philly trade to jays:
Kyle drabek
darnaud
Brett Wallace (via mike taylor)
ok so this trade is decent. id accept it. but then seattle comes in and gives philly 3 prospects for Cliff Lee (great player last season).
-Is it just me, or does anyone else feel cheated?
i feel like we gave philly about equal, maybe even more for 3 prospects while seattle gave the garbage in their farm system (ok im exagerrating but come on).
also can someone please convince me that wallace is better than taylor. wallace is comparable to travis snider. ive read all the stats and about their games, and it seems to me mike is the one most needed by this club. bigger and quicker, whats not to love.
I am not pissed, I am not ecstatic. I think the Jays could have done a bit better but they are probably still slightly better off than they would have been with Roy walking after 2010. So, I could not criticize them greatly. That said, once the three team deal structure was in place, I might have shopped it around a bit to find another team to step into the Ms position who might have passed some players to the Jays or maybe even just asked for a better bid. I think the Angels might have ante’d up but who knows. In the end, it is not a bad deal.
Clearly, Phillies were driving this deal. They walk away with an ace under long-term contract, $6M of pocket money and an MiLB still intact.
by aagoodfella on Dec 16, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Snider was ranked as one of the 6 best prospects in all of baseball in 2009
so how would getting someone comparable be a bad thing?
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
well
comparable to his size and game, strong hitter with some pop and bigger body. i think thats why he’s comparable, but dont you think the jays needs some different players with different abilities, (ie. a faster, base stealing player who still has some pop on his bat like taylor). i dont know, i havent even watched them play but from the styles of play each of these player possess from what i read, i think id prefer a quicker player with bat in mike. just my opinion, but hopefully wallace does turn out well and better.
We need good players
Taylor is what 250 lb? He won’t be a base stealer for long. Or at least not a good one.
Sure, it's good to have a mix of skills
but someone with the hitting upside of Snider (or Wallace, for that matter) is a huge plus on any team. Even if the Jays don’t want to use him on the major-league team, he obviously has a lot of trade value. I think when you are trying to win now, you focus more on filling organizational needs and when you are building for the future, you get the best talent you can and go from there.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Huh??
The Phillies received three mediocre prospects for Lee.
The Jays received three top-tier prospects for Halladay.
Is my eyesight bad? Where did we get cheated?
If anything it’s Philadelphia that was cheated if you’re looking at the pitcher-for-prospects trades.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
Law doubts Drabek can be a true ace because of the lack of a great third pitch, but likes him as a number two or, at worst, a number three.
There’s still room for development with Drabek too, which is a big plus. I can see his first year in AAA Las Vegas having a mandate to work on a change-up, much like Marcum did. Add a good change in to his two-seamer and curve ball, and you’ve got a legitimate ace in him.
I think what’s going to be exciting next year because everyone seems to have forgotten Stewart down in the minors, and he’s the other high end guy I can see emerging in 2010 and coming into his own for 2011. Add that to Romero, Scrabble, Marcum and Cecil, all quality front to mid-rotation guys, and Litsch, Richmond, Janssen, Mills, and Ray as back end rotation options, and you’ve got a real possibility for a low cost high quality rotation with significant depth from 2011 into 2015.
Either Works
We’ve had a couple come right from AA; Litsch, Ray, and Scrabble, if I recall correctly.
Is it just me, but have the Jays been abnormally successful with developing the change-up? This could be way off base, but I’ve noticed a lot of our Jays pitchers really having a handle on throwing a sinking change for strikes. Do we have some filthy changeup artist as a coach in our farm system, or just coincidence?
Marcum and Romero always had good changeups
not sure about the rest
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Marcum
See, I never remember his change in 2006 when he was getting knocked about. Maybe he didn’t have as much confidence in it then.
that's possible
when the Jays drafted him, he was not considered a change-up specialist (his command and his slider were his biggest selling points), but he was always considered to have a good, majors-quality change. Here’s a Baseball America chat from when he was drafted.
Marcum has a medium wiry athletic frame and is a four pitch guy with quick arm and incredible control. He walked only 20 batters all season as he pounded the strike zone with an 89-92 mph fastball. He complements his fastball with a sharp plus slider, average 126 curve and a good change with late movement and fastball type arm speed.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Huh
Funny how guys change in your mind over the years. When he came in, I remember he was kind of considered a younger Towers in terms of a control man.
Towers really suffered
from not having a change, interestingly enough.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Or A Cutter
I always thought if Towers could have transitioned to a cut fastball, he would have been a much better pitcher. He had a decent curve and a sorta decent slider, but if he’d been able to introduce some lateral movement on his fastball down in the zone, he’d get the strike outs and groundouts to keep his ERA down.
Mind you, I was a bit of a Towers fan. In 2005, I sort of saw him as the Chuck Weppner of the pitching rotation. Not good, but able to go seven innings and not get beat up enough to kill any chance of winning.
Or much velocity
Basically, Towers was a pitching mirage and, by sheer absolute control, was able to get a few major league seasons.
I enjoyed watching him pitch because you were sure there was an impending disaster about to happen but he would somehow manage to squeak out of it.
Meh. There’s been more than a few guys who had a lot of good years without much more velocity than Towers’ 91mph heater. There’s really two routes to successful pitching, save for the guys we do everything well, and that’s to either have the ‘stuff’ on a couple of pitches to get outs, or to have the control on a mediocre tool kit. Add a little more movement to Towers fastball either down or laterally, and he’s a very solid back end starter.
seems to me that complaining about a guy in the minors not having a 'great' third pitch is nitpicking
Roy Halladay didn’t have a ‘great’ 3rd pitch in the minors too. But then point me out a bunch of guys that have 3 great pitches. We’ll see I guess.
3rd pitch?
Shit, Dennis Eckersley is a Hall of Famer and he didn’t have a 2nd pitch.
Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.
by craig in calgary on Dec 16, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
language Craig.....
ban him, ban him…..
But you are right, a guy with two great pitches can be good even if he just has a third pitch just for show.
Sorry, I thought that was his first name.
My bad.
Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.
by craig in calgary on Dec 16, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
yes
although it’s a totally different situation with closers. Wang and Wakefield are the most one-dimensional starters I can think of in recent memory, and they throw more than one pitch.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I totally agree
I think it’s silly to write off a AA pitcher as “not an ace” because he “only” has a 97-mph fastball and a wicked curveball, so far. That’s all he’s needed, so far.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
That’s all he’s needed, so far.
Law does have a point though that not having a quality out pitch in the bigs is often the line between a servicable pitcher and an ace, but yes, he’s got plenty of time to develop it. After all, Halladay didn’t become Halladay the God until after he slowed down the gas and focused on his cutter/sinker arsenal.
sure
but it’s worth mentioning that Drabek does have an out pitch, his curve. What he lacks, so far, and what I thought Law to be referring to, is a third quality major-league pitch to keep hitters honest. But even if he adds one, Drabek’s curve will remain his out pitch is my understanding.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Plus, if he never develops the third pitch, he sounds like he could have the stuff to be an excellent closer.
drabek's floor (hopefully) is a #2 or #3 starter
which is significantly more valuable than an excellent closer, anyway
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
That Would Make Sense
I think a 90mph sinker would also make a good setup pitch for him, and he could throw it with the same motion. At 22, you’re usually still able to add a pitch and build on it, so I’m not that worried. His ceiling looks to be quite high, if not a bonafided ace than certainly not far behind.
didn't Frasor add a change up to his repetoire?
just last offsseason when he was 31 year old?
i’m drabek can add a pitch at his age.
Yup
Hence my question if there was some kind of change guru in the organization.
Interestingly enough, Frasor’s curve was considered pretty strong as a minor league player, and he basically cut it from his list a couple of years ago. So things are always fluid.
Wow
I guess this announcement is not coming to fruition
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/20091216_Phils_set_to_introduce_pitcher_Halladay.html
by aagoodfella on Dec 16, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Nooooooooooooooooooooooo!
That could shatter the entire deal.
Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.
by craig in calgary on Dec 16, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
drunk jays fans
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
you never know, but Aumont makes sense to me
supposedly he had some sore elbow issue for most of the 2009 season
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
This doesn't really affect our portion of the threesome though
Seattle will have to pony up another prospect of similar value
Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.
by craig in calgary on Dec 16, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
right
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
unless for whatever reason our deal with Philly
was conditioned on their trading Lee, but not sure why it would be
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I cannot see anybody doing anypart of the deal without it being conditioned on all the pieces working else it could put the recipient of a medically unworthy trade piece in a very difficult position
certainly I could see why Philly would want it conditioned
but whether the Jays would agree to that, considering that no players are going between the M’s and the Jays, who knows?
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Is Aumont a Deal Breaker?
Or do we ask for another player?
Presumably Phillie turns around and demands Brandon Marrow
But I dont know if the M’s go for it. I tend to think they would, as it still an ok (if not as fantastic trade for them)
You know what i meant...
Do the Jays ask for another player? or will they simply call off the deal?
Aumont is going to the Philies, not the Jays
Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.
by craig in calgary on Dec 16, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Twitter makes the offseason absolutely ridiculous
Sources now say Aumont passed
Twitter is either the best thing to happen to sports reporting
Or the worst. I’m not sure which one, but it’s no where in between.
Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.
by craig in calgary on Dec 16, 2009 1:29 PM EST reply actions
If it really is Taylor
Then the deal is really in trouble…because the only thing that Philly could do is offer Brown, which they just aren’t going to do (particularly if Taylor is in trouble).
Then, I don’t really see any way for the deal to get done unless the Ms suddenly offer prospects to Toronto (which they aren’t going to have any incentive to do), or we get so desperate, we settle for some terrible terrible deal that nets us just about nothing.
Without Taylor/Wallace, the Angels deal looks better to me.
Would be odd if it was Taylor
He has no injury history that I’m aware of. If he does, it’s at least not nearly as publicized as Drabek’s.
Phillies fans everywhere were hoping it was Aumont (or Gillies), giving them an excuse to nix the Lee trade. Since it appears to be neither, I’d have to assume it’s Drabek, which is problematic for both sides of the deal.
Jays – I’d assume you’d rather have a healthy Drabek than Happ, the next most likely guy to go. You’d probably be better off with a healthy Drabek than a Blanton, since Blanton’s much more expensive and represents what most believe to be Kyle’s floor in the league (even Keith Law, who seems has a lower opinon of Kyle than most).
Phillies – There’s no way they’re getting back $6 mil with either of the replacements I listed above, so they’re still going to have to trade Lee to clear payroll. Now Halladay’s being traded for two starters, and the Phillies won’t be gaining any cash in the deal (unless they get it from Seattle, I suppose).
there's no way
I’d want the Jays to accept Blanton or Happ in the place of Drabek. Not unless Philly included Brown, which I’m sure they’re not willing to do.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Agreed with you
If I were a Jays fan (not a real stretch, as I have an uncle and cousins in Guelph who are and an aunt who’s split between the Phils and Jays), I’d say the same thing.
And to correct myself earlier, I heard that Taylor was shut down in Mexican League ball with elbow problems. Put him back on the radar.
Amaro says negotiations could extend to Thursday
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hhNcPXBkpsGhvvY3bpAtMGthL5dgD9CKI9N84
Amaro: Close on Halladay deal
By DAN GELSTON (AP) – 14 minutes ago
PHILADELPHIA — Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. says he’s hopeful the trade to acquire Roy Halladay from Toronto and send Cliff Lee to Seattle can be completed Wednesday but talks may extend into Thursday.
Amaro declined to speak specifically about Halladay. He says negotiations have been complex because of the number of players and teams involved.
Toronto would send Halladay and $6 million to the Phillies for three minor leaguers: catcher Travis d’Arnaud, right-hander Kyle Drabek and outfielder Michael Taylor.
Halladay would receive a $60 million, three-year contract extension through 2013, a deal that would include a 2014 option.
Drabek could be the issue
A snag in Halladay, Lee deals?
By: Edward Kracz phillyBurbs.com
A bit surprised at this point that the Phillies haven’t yet called a press conference to announce their acquisition of Roy Halladay and trade of Cliff Lee. Perhaps it has to do with a reporter for the Toronto Sun who recently tweeted that one of the minor league players involved in the deal flunked his physical.
Remember, Phillie Kyle Drabek had Tommy John surgery two years ago and was shut down before the end of last season for, supposedly, precautionary reasons. Also, Phillippe Aumont, who the Mariners are sending to the Phils, has had elbow issues.
December 16, 2009
if it was something that became clearer at the end of last season, that could certainly explain
why Drabek was untouchable at the trade deadline but there was no problem including him this December
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
And don’t forget Drabek was shut down early in an abundance of caution
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
ignore… I didn’t see aagoodfella’s post above. People are posting too quickly :)
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
reports are that it was not a mariners prospect
according to mlbtraderumors.com it was not a mariners prospect who failed the physical
D'awwww
Would have been nice on our end. Sadly this likely means the Lee deal is unchanged.
unless the whole thing is off, I suppose
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
from Bastian
oc, Lee, Aumont, Gillies & Ramirez apparently not the issue. That leaves Wallace, Drabek, Taylor, d’Arnaud for those keeping score at home
some kid named Jamie Moyer. HUGE upside
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
Don’t worry. Ruben’s too stupid to grow a pair now.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
whatever Amaro's failings
confidence isn’t one of them
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
if Drabek has major shoulder issues, you’ll be saying that for a long time
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
:-P
But seriously, I don’t see it. If Amaro agreed to these two trades (which in sum total was ridiculous), and STILL wouldn’t give on Brown, I don’t see how this really changes anything.
Trevor May
Fangraphs page Not much, but will give you the basics.
Younger and less polished than Drabek, but without the injury history. Did very well in A ball last year. I know he has a rep for great stuff. He could be an interesting piece (a la Knapp last year) but certainly not a headliner like Drabek.
Probably
Or else that would have been the package to start.
that's the problem, right?
if one of the Phillies players failed, what is the incentive for the Jays to accept anything less than what was agreed to when the Jays had already compromised by allowing the Phillies to take their best prospect off the table? And from the Phils perspective, what is the incentive for adding the one player they’ve refused to deal from day one, particularly when one of their other top prospects presumably has some unresolved injury issue?
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
may look bad on the Phillies for trying to trade damaged goods so they will want to make up for it and offer us more :) one can dream right?
This is going to be a huge game of chicken. Who’s going to blink first. Hopefully from all the flak Ruben has taken, he’ll be under pressure to not give up Brown. That’s all I’m hopin.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
very understandable
but Anthopolous is not going to get off to a very good start with Jays fans if he lets the Phils sub in Happ for Drabek at the 11th hour, either.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Frankly, you guys don’t want Happ and we need him. The bottom of our rotation is bleak enough. Trade Happ and we’re in big trouble.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt the Jays can work out a deal with LAA
they never want to give up any of their real prospects. They always pretend to be in but always balk at the cost. Look at who they offered as a centerpiece for Doc – Joe Saunders.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Exactly the problem
And if I understood the trade reactions properly, it would be a consensus win for the Phillies to have this whole thing get rebooted and started from scratch.
What worries me, though, is that if the extension is signed and delivered, will Amaro just do anything to make it go through? A week ago, I would have said “No.” Now?
gotta be. It’d be criminal malfeasance if it were not.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Not the point
at least, not directly. I’m sure the contract covers the “upon completion of the trade” bit, but with all of the effort and time and energy put in I’m worried about Amaro’s resolve in this situation to hit the reset button. It’s less about whether he HAS to (he doesn’t) than whether he feels he does given what’s already transpired.
Unrelated but important.
Go vote for Tom Cheek in the BBHOF Poll!!!!! You can vote once a day and he’s still only 23 votes ahead of Jacques Doucet.
Go vote now you lazy Facebookers!!!
Ok, back to the trade..
Why do we do this to ourselves?
there is a link on our front page
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I’m not a fancy schmancy techno-wizard with the ability to make links. If I were it would lead back to the front page and say “scroll downwardly and use your main finger to click the link where it says to go and vote at the place I just told you to vote before i posted this link THANSK!”
Why do we do this to ourselves?
An idea
Phils trade Lee to Angels for better prospects than what they get out of Seattle, then flip the headliner to replace Drabek/Taylor.
(If it’s D’Arnaud, this is infinitely more fixable than that).
sounds good to me
except that the Angels never want to give up good prospects. They tried to trade us Joe Saunders for Roy Halladay
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
losing Cliff Lee. They’re already widely being acknowledged as the “winner” in this three team deal.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
i type faster than I think. Get’s me in trouble sometimes.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
unless it’s being reworked, which is almost certainly what’s going on right now.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
I'd think so
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
but with so many moving pieces
it may be tough to fix
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Reworking in progress so says Bastian
Source says sides are hopeful this deal can still be officially announced today.
did we confirm it IS Drabek? Any linky?
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
I'd say the opposite
It’s not Taylor, because then the A’s would have to be involved.
Maybe it is somehow D’Arnaud.
Yeah this scares me. There’s only one way I see this being done that quickly, and I’ll bet it’s going to make Phans unhappy.
if we trade Brown I’m going to go on ebay and auction my fan loyalty to the highest bidder. Guess I’ll be rootin for the Yanks.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
if it's Brown,
come to the Jays and it’ll be like your team never traded him
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
More like Brown for Drabek
with a lower level pitching prospect pitched in.
Lower than that
Phillies have good pitching prospects in the low minors. They wouldn’t be likely to go from 2,3,4 to 1,3,4,5.
Still, in that instance I might think you’d see a name like Antonio Bastardo.
Lower level
here meaning lower ranked, not necessarily A ball
An ignorant question
How do these conditioning clauses work on trades of this sort. What type of leverage (if any) do the Jays get if Taylor or Drabek fail a physical.
it's doubtful that there is anything specific
other than the deal being contingent on the players passing a physical. Any leverage the Jays would get is from the fact that the other teams want a deal as bad as the Jays and the Jays guy isn’t the one who failed so it would seem to be up to the other team to “fix” it.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
This
If there’s even a question on these, I’d have to imagine each team has a “Plan B” in mind before they agree. Plan B for the Jays is Brown. The fact that they’re not that far apart worries me.
so you are saying the Phillies went into negotiations knowing Drabek was damaged goods and the untouchable Brown was just a ruse to distract Jays away
OMG — crafty crafty devils
“three Philadelphia lawyers are a match for the devil” was a saying in colonial New England
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
No
I mean that both teams probably already did their homework on it and realized there was a chance. Caveat Emptor and all that. I don’t think anyone “hid” anything (and if it is Drabek you couldn’t really call it “hiding” anyway – they shut him down late in the year).
If you think there’s a chance of something like that happening, you go in hoping everything’s fine but bprepared if it’s not.
I would be okay
with the deal being nixed and Doc honouring his extension deal with the Jays!!
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
i dont think roy would like that
you get his hopes up and then destroy it by bringing him back. not good
Much Ado About Nothing per Bastian
RT @GloBlair: Well-placed baseball source on failed physical reports involving a player coming to the Jays? “Totally false rumour.”
Ooookay
Well, it’s not Lee, Halladay, any of the Seattle prospects, or anyone going to Toronto.
Harvey the Rabbit, then?
back to Taylor, the original speculation per
http://torontosportsmedia.com/toronto-blue-jays-baseball/prospect-halladay-deal-flunked/6936
Blair is usually pretty solid on this type of thing
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
haha
I was getting a little greedy there, I have to admit…
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
no offense meant to Philadelphia, a town I like
but I think the Halladays are going to be missing Toronto more than once during the life of the contract
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Yeah I went back and read it
and facepalmed my own misreading of your post. The OMG was a dead giveaway.
well, that was a lot of ado about nothing there
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
no wonder Elliott
isn’t in the Hall of Fame
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Two points
1. I wonder how all that happend. “Well, let’s just take a look here…oh! You failed the exam!”
::Twitter happy reporters go ape____ in the hallway upon hearing this.::
“Oh, wait…not failed…what’s that other word again? Right…passed. You passed.”
2. Should I be sad that they’re really going through with the Cliff Lee end of this or happy that Reuben wasn’t given a chance to flip Brown for a side of hash browns?
well, if they want to stick to budget, i guess they have to move Lee so from a fiscal perspective you have to admire Phillies mgmt
and condemn ownership for not spending a couple million extra to keep Lee around and lock up a 2nd WS in 3 years…Halladay, Lee, Hamels would be an AMAZING rotation
I can't imagine they couldn't have found someone to eat
Blanton’s salary, at least most of it.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
doesn't sound like it
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
whoever started this rumor should be SHOT. Three days of life now wasted.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 16, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Mariners announce the deal
1:48pm: The Mariners announced the trade in a press release, with GM Jack Zdruriencik congratulating the Phillies and Blue Jays on the way the deal was handled.
more from Bastina
CSN Philly reporting that Halladay presser is scheduled for 5 pm. Hearing that the Jays’ press conf will be around then as well.
Good to know
I`m still hoping for a last second surprise somewhere
Kinda glad the Phillies don't play the Mariners this year
Apparently Lee’s pissed about the whole thing. So…have fun with King Felix/PO’d Lee, AL.
just wondering how everyones so sure the Mariners come out way on top
Are the prospects theyre giving up completely expendable? It sounds awful unlikely Lee will be there after this year… sure they can win their division since the Angels have done a whole lot of nothing but does anyone see them as a serious contender?
I guess one playoff year can inject some interest in a market that hasnt seen them in a while…
by ucantcoachthat on Dec 16, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
Shorterm
I think the Mariner’s come out on top. They got one of the best pitchers in baseball for a couple of prospects that aren’t close to sure things, and aren’t MLB ready yet.
Long term, only time will tell (obviously). The Phillies have traded 7 top prospects out of their organization in the last 5 months for the time they had Lee, Halladay and a couple of (lesser) return prospects from the Mariner’s. Hopefully Halladay is great for them, but they have seriously gutted their farm system for the future. If they get a another World Series or two, then it’s worth it, however if they can’t win the series, I think it’s going to look pretty bleak in Philly land a few years down the road.
maybe, but they might have had a surplus of prospects anyhow and leveraged it into a team that can win
anyhow, the just got some prospects from Ms
in any case, they are just that prospects and as the saying goes, a bird in the hand is worth one in the bush and you guys just landed the biggest bird of all, Roy Halladay (for four years or longer)
The prospects the Phils gave up for Lee
were probably no worse than the prospects they received from the Mariners
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Basically because they got a second ace
for spare parts. And the value of the spare parts will be washed out by the two great picks they’re going to get when Lee leaves, so on a slightly longer timeline you could say they’re getting Lee for free.
As a Jays fan
you very quickly realize that you don’t necessarily get two great picks for Type A free agents (between Scutaro and Burnett, we’ve received a low second-rounder, a low third-rounder and two sandwich picks). Even Sabathia only netted the Brewers a second-rounder
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
They certainly did
Mariners added a top level pitcher to go with Felix, they’ve added a strong lead off man, they’re in on all sorts of things and the Angels are vulnerable. This is the opportunity to win now, and kudos on their front office for recognizing it and going for broke.
A sad but necessary day
Hate to see him go. Glad to have seen him pitch in person. The best pitcher to ever put on a Jays uni. I hope he gets a ring.
4pm EST
AA will be doing an interview on bluejays.com
i don't think tallet will be in the rotation
he is more valuable to us as a long reliever i think. i think its more likely that cecil and rzepczynski end up being in there
saw that too
but their guess is as good as anyones
by ucantcoachthat on Dec 16, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
No way.
Tallet and Richond won’t/shouldn’t be in the rotation.
Give the kids the ball and let them figure it out.
2010 is going to be a write-off anyways
Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.
by craig in calgary on Dec 16, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Epilogue
Wallace was apparently the injury concern. Shoulder problems that checked out just fine.
more props for the Doc
I like this Ray Flowers’ assessment of Roy. Man, next year should be a Cy Young year for him:
http://www.rototimes.com/article/2009/12/Halladay-Lee-Switching-Leagues
Review: Roy Halladay
2009 stats: 17-10, 2.79 ERA, 208 Ks, 1.13 WHIP in 239 IP
Roy Halladay, the top arm on either the free agent or trade market, instantly upgrades a Phillies staff – that’s what happens when you add one of the top-5 arms in the game. Just look at how Halladay performed in 2009 in a myriad of categories.
Halladay led the majors with nine complete games and four shutouts.
Halladay was second in the majors with 239 IP.
Halladay posted a 2.79 ERA, the 8th best mark in baseball.
Halladay posted a 1.13 WHIP, the 8th best mark in baseball.
Halladay racked up 208 Ks, the 9th best mark in baseball.
Yeah, he’s good. Furthermore, we all know he is more than a one year wonder, right?
In each of the past four years Halladay has thrown at least 220 innings. No other hurler can match that streak.
In each of the past four years Halladay has at least 16 victories. No other hurler can match that streak.
In each of the past two years Halladay has posted an ERA in the 2.70’s. Only Halladay and Tim Lincecum have posted marks below 2.80 the past two seasons while throwing at least 162 innings in each stanza.
To pile on the good, Halladay now gets a chance to face NL lineups. Think he will like not having to face the Yankees six times a year while getting a “free” out every time through the order (the pitcher’s spot)? He also gets to face a group of players that may not have ever had the chance to hit off him. He is moving to a strong hitter’s park, and one that can hurt a hurler if he allows the ball to be hit skyward, but Halladay clearly isn’t a hurler that should be affected. Halladay owns a 2.26 G/F rate in his career, a tremendous number that anyone would be proud of. He has slipped a bit here having failed to reach that career mark in any of the past three seasons, but numbers of 1.83, 2.00 and 1.71 are still terrific totals. On balance, there is little reason to expect Halladay’s numbers to move at all in 2010, that is if all the years of throwing all those innings doesn’t catch up to him.
In short, Halladay throws strikes, works deep into games and should rack up the “W’s” with the Phillies exceedingly powerful offensive juggernaut piling up the runs for him. If he ends up with numbers appreciable worse than what he has done the past four years the likely culprit will be a lack of health, but given his track record there is virtually no reason to predict an injury filled campaign.
Halladay`s 2010 Numbers?
2009 stats: 17-10, 2.79 ERA, 208 Ks, 1.13 WHIP in 239 IP
Figuring he`s going to get a ton of run support, and pitch against weaker teams, plus adding in a pitcher… Factor in the ball park, and the fact that PHI may not allow him to pitch a complete game due to him hitting…
2010 stats: 23-6, 2.95 ERA, 225Ks, 1.02 WHIP in 215 IP…. Sounds like a sure fire CY Young, unless Tim Lincecum keeps improving…
Damn
I am going to miss Roy… you better appreciate him Phils fans!!!!!!
I don’t want to hear anything further about him being a “minimal” upgrade over Cliff Lee.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
yea,
treat him nice or we will come down there and kick your arse … LOL
Ya, I think the biggest negative difference for him in the NL will be his IP totals. In games that he might have gone into the 8th inning for the Jays, he might end up getting pulled in the 6th or 7th for a pinch hitter, especially if they are down a couple of runs. Other than that, I’ll be pulling for a Cy Young season for him. I’m sure we’ll see his ERA & WHIP go down slightly, and wins go up.
by jonnybluejay on Dec 16, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
Eh..
I am going to be a cock-eyed optimist and figure that with the easy pitcher’s spot to work with he’ll have an even easier time getting CG’s and he might even get into double digits next year.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
but...
having to hit every inning he may get pulled for a pinch hitter in tight games though i’m not sure the Phils want to pull doc and leave the game up to Lidge to close…uggh
If Doc is hitting every inning
he won’t need to come out for a pinch hitter.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
However, against an NL lineup with the Phils lineup behind him...
how often is Halladay going to be down in the 6th inning? Seems like an unlikely situation often enough to really affect his IP totals.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
it just doesnt look right!!!
knew for a long time this day would come but somehow im still shocked to see him in a Phillies uniform
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