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Baseball Prospectus View of the Trade

Baseball Prospectus has their opinion of the big trade up on their site. A couple of bits I thought I'd steal:


As good as the Mariners did, though, the big winners here were the Blue Jays. Behind the eight-ball with a pitcher they could not sign and could not trade without his permission, which likely meant a value-killing contract commitment, they were able to bring in three prospects who could all be part of winning teams in the middle of the decade. What Alex Anthopolous brought back dwarfs what the Twins got for Santana two years ago. It’s too easy to say that Drabek could grow into a Halladay replacement, but he has that kind of ability. Remember that the Blue Jays have shown a facility for turning lesser pitchers into league-average starters. Drabek has more talent than any pitcher in their system. D’Arnaud is a polished hitter with a strong enough arm to remain behind the plate, and while he doesn’t have the star potential Drabek has, he projects as an inexpensive, good player at a key position.


No pressure there on the poor kid. Could be a Halladay replacement. But I agree that Anthopoulos got far more that the Twins got for Sanatana. And under a bigger microscope. 

Anthoplolous traded the third prospect, Taylor, to the A’s for Brett Wallace. This is an interesting challenge trade, dealing the more complete player for the player with one dominant skill. The Jays’ advantage in acquiring Wallace is that they will be able to develop him as a first baseman if need be, as they have only Lyle Overbay in his way, and that only for a year. Wallace isn’t as bad a third baseman as he looks to be on first glance, lacking lateral range but having acceptable hands and moving fairly well back and forth. An eventual move off of third has long been assumed inevitable, and if that is necessary, the Jays can fade that. Wallace joins Travis Snider and Adam Lind for what could end up as a championship-caliber middle of the lineup. For the A’s part, they get the player with the broader skill set who may fit their situation a bit better; the A’s need outfielders who can cover ground, and Taylor is a good right fielder who could make their team out of spring training.

This is the real interesting part of the trade to me. Michael Taylor is a good prospect and I was pretty happy when we thought the Jays were going to get. He would fill in the gaping hole in RF and if he didn't turn out to be great, Alex could have just said 'well we all thought he would be good'. But trading him like this shows guts. For the rest of each of their careers we'll be comparing the two of them. If Wallace turns into the better player, Alex is a genus. If Taylor turns out to be the better player, he'll never hear the end of it. 

You do have to like that he has the guts to do it. Right or wrong a GM has to make the moves he believes in. If he thinks Wallace will be the better player, he can't be afraid of the reaction if he is wrong. If you worry about what happens if you are wrong, you won't do anything. 

I hope it works out but more than that, I'm happy Alex has shown the guts needed to be a GM. 

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I don't like the Taylor- Wallace switch on paper

To me, we need a 5 tooled RF’er more than a slugging corner infielder, but I agree, I applaud AA for sticking his neck out and I (gulp) trust the system which isn’t something I said under the previous regime. That being said, he trades Snider, I’m going to go balystic (sp?)

Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.

by craig in calgary on Dec 17, 2009 11:57 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

well...I'll bet you a buck that Taylor doesn't stay a 5 tool guy long...

he is 250 lb….I know I should do the study but I’d bet there hasn’t been many 250 pound base stealers in the history of the game.

by Tom Dakers on Dec 17, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Carlos Lee is/was a big guy

shorter than Taylor, and he stole about 15-20 bases each season through his 20s at least. Certainly not a big base stealer, but that’s about all I can think of at around 250 lbs at the moment. Vernon Wells probably doesn’t weigh (230 according to fangraphs) as much but is a couple of inches shorter than Taylor too, and he still takes 15-20 bases a season at a relatively high success rate.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 17, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you, Tom, by the way,

just doing my best to think of similar body types who have at least kept the steal as part of their game through their prime.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 17, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dunn stole 19 once...

actually he’s a good example of the point I was trying to make. Taylor like Dunn is so big that I’d expect the base stealing to disappear and I’d wonder how long he could be a good defensive outfielder.

by Tom Dakers on Dec 17, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

According to baseball almanac

there have been 50 MLB players from 1976 to 2009 listed at 250lb or more….I’m guessing not many stole 200 bases

by Tom Dakers on Dec 17, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i don't think

anyone stole 200 bases, Tom!

by boo15749 on Dec 17, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Scott Rolen once stole 200 bases

In one inning.

Miss that guy :(

Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.

by craig in calgary on Dec 17, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

meant career....

likely to high a cut off still….was looking for a number that someone that was a ‘5 tool player’ into his prime would reach.

by Tom Dakers on Dec 17, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but it didn't last at all

Dunn is actually sort of the counterexample

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 17, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

why the counter example?

maybe Taylor follows suit

by ayjackson on Dec 17, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

right, it is very likely he does

Dunn only stole more than 10 bases in a season once in his career, at an age that Taylor has already passed. So that would mean Taylor is essentially a non-entity as a basestealer, as Tom suggested he was. I was just trying to come up with someone who bucked the trend. The vast majority will follow the Dunn path.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 17, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

After spending way too long looking through players...

closest I’ve come to a big guy staying a 5 tool player into his prime is Dave Winfield. 6’6" and 220 he continued to steal around 20 bases a year into his 30s. Course he’s listed at 30 pounds lighter than Taylor and I’d guess he wasn’t 220 when he was 22.

by Tom Dakers on Dec 17, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wells'

body type at 6’1" and 230 seems a lot more similar to Taylor’s than Winfield’s to me. Of course, it’s debatable how many of Wells’ “tools” are left, and I don’t know how much he weighed at 24 (though I never remember him being any skinnier than he is now, really)

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 17, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah I guess so....I was putting the height in the equation....

but really weight to height is likely a better comparison.

Vernon was asked, on the chat he did on bluejays.com, why he didn’t steal very often. He said when he came into the league he hit in front of Carlos Delgado, so stealing was a waste and “now I’m old”.

by Tom Dakers on Dec 17, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that's funny

Vernon is a great baserunner, though. I think he could’ve stolen 30 back in his mid-20s if really wanted to.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 17, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Parker

dave parker was 6 five and 230-240, probably 260 when a jay and he stole 20 bases a few times. He was clearly a 5 tool player who I think was an unbelivable player, but got caught up with some drugs

by willie stargell on Dec 17, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually I would argue that Parker wasn't a 5-tool player

Over his career, he stole 154 bases and was caught 113 times.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Dec 17, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

me too

I think I misunderstood your original reference to Dunn as offering an example of a big guy who stole bases when you were offering in support of Tom’s point

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 17, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Always thought of Lee as one of those break even base stealers...

but looking at it, he did better most years. Ivan Calderon for the Expos stole 32 and 31 bases two year in a row and was a big man but he was caught 16 times each year.

by Tom Dakers on Dec 17, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bobby Abreu

Fangraphs lists him at 210 but I have a hard time believing that. Hes a pretty big 210 lbs. and getting much older now, yet he is still good for 30 steals a year. I never understood how he got that body moving so quick…

by Jays11 on Dec 17, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Close

it`s ballistic

by voidhelix on Dec 17, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Overall, I would rate the Roy for Drabek – Taylor – D’Agnaud deal a solid B. I cannot give it an A because it is not an outstanding trade but good. The Jays are better off than they would have been (if Roy walked post 2010) however they did give up 4+ years of the best pitcher in baseball and $6M — that is worth a helluva lot. But, the Jays did ok and the deal was done on a timely basis so congratulations for AA are certainly merited.

I am still a bit skeptical about swapping Taylor for Wallace and moving Wallace to 1B, where I would prefer to see Lind. Again, time will tell. The difference either way will probably not be that great and he seems like he has a lot of history with Wallace (based on previous pursuits) so, I am willing to give him benefit of the doubt on this one. Given AAs history wiht Wallace, it may have been the ’lower risk" option.

Based on AA’s comments on BlueJays.com, I like his idea of trying to build a core of guys about the same age who can mature together. Later on he can add on some extra pieces in open market and with championship in sight, I am guessing Rogers will loosen the purse strings accordingly.

I am not sure about all this Snider trade talk. Is there any thing more substantive on it than our speculation? It does not seem consistent with AA’s plans to move Travis.

by aagoodfella on Dec 17, 2009 12:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

In a reversal of what I've written thus far...

…if AA believes Wallace is the better bat, it’s the right move.

You can find fast defensive OF all over, but if AA believes that Wallace truly is a significantly better bat than Taylor will be, it’s the right move.

I do like how AA has gone for quality. I would have liked a few more b-level prospects included, but perhaps AA can pick one or two of those up through dealing Overbay, etc.

I just hope Cito is the right guy for this group. That’s what concerns me the most.

As a quick aside, this is how I’d line up the Jays if the season started today:

Wells (RF)
Overbay (1B)
Hill (2B)
Lind (DH)
Encarnacion (3B)
Snider (LF)
Bautista (CF)
Buck ©
Gonzalez (SS)

But I’d prefer Overbay be moved and Wallace start in his place, and replace Bautista with a defensive CF or flip Wells back to CF and get a veteran upgrade in RF.

by Jevant on Dec 17, 2009 12:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I would

swap Wells and Bautista (cringe), and have Vernon bat 5th at least for the time being. For someone being paid that much annually, and given the length of his contract, you simply need him to have better production numbers. Lead-off hitters simply don’t get as many opportunities to drive in runs.

That being said, I hope that Anthopoulos will trade whatever assets he has remaining (e.g., Overbay, perhaps with a reliever) for a speedy outfielder who can play either centre or right field, who can also be a table-setter and bat lead-off or second.

by Hansen on Dec 17, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I bet Rios would come cheap :P

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby

by wroth91 on Dec 18, 2009 12:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nimble

I think that’s the best way to describe AA’s approach. I think all of the talk about using the Winter’s Meetings to assemble information was spot on, and he’s got value scenarios for most of the Jays and not only the pieces he wants, but the pieces other guys want and he can potentially engineer to his own advantage. Getting the best value for Doc is one thing; flipping a top prospect for another is risky and it shows that he’s definately got a long term plan in his head and interchangable pieces about how to get there.

The Jays in 2010 are going to be a younger team, and aren’t necessarily going to be a pretty product on the field, but will have a lot of promise, and that’s always fun to watch.

by dexfarkin on Dec 17, 2009 12:33 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

AA's interview on PTS was excellent

I didn’t care for him that much during the pressie.

He was emphatic about there being more moves to come. He had many people to get back to today.

by ayjackson on Dec 17, 2009 12:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I saw my first AA interview last night

I’d seen countless pictures of him, but when he spoke, I didn’t expect what I heard – it was funny!
His voice doesn’t match his body….what ever that means.

You are all welcome for my brilliant voice/body analysis.

Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.

by craig in calgary on Dec 17, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nope I thought the same, although I thought he sounded a little hoarse, and I heard he was under the weather for the winter meetings. Maybe he lost a little of his voice or something.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Dec 17, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he sounded difference, last night. A while back he did an audio broadcast of a conference call and it did not sounds as hoarse. He is probably nursing a minor malady.

by aagoodfella on Dec 17, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Does anyone think AA is done with his offseason moves?

Or do we see anothther “Big splash” via trade or free agency?
…and BTW….I don’t concider Accardo or Overbay for a “B” prospect a “splash”

Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.

by craig in calgary on Dec 17, 2009 12:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'd bet....

or at least hope that someone that could play right field will turn up in a trade

by Tom Dakers on Dec 17, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We should trade a couple young prospects for the WhiteSox RF'er

He struggeled last year, but I remember him being a hell of a good player.

Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.

by craig in calgary on Dec 17, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you mean Jermaine Dye?

Chicago declined his option – he’s a free agent

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 17, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and he wasn't offered arbitration either

so no 2nd round pick surrender

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 17, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

pretty old though

seems like a guy that a) wouldn’t want to be part of rebuilding (seems like we have to use the R word now) and b) is looking for one more long-term deal

by boo15749 on Dec 17, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Swing and a miss

On my attempted Alex Rios joke.

Johnnie Morton: The Man. The Myth. The Legend.

by craig in calgary on Dec 17, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ahhh

that actually is really funny, I totally missed it. Also, I agree, boo, I don’t want Dye at all.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 17, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

some people can tell a joke and....

Oh wait we did this already.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Dec 17, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well after that one

i don’t need a haircut anymore

by boo15749 on Dec 17, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I actually thought you meant Carlos Quentin…wouldn’t mind having him

by bunner on Dec 17, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I bet he's probably done making splashes by your definition

just ‘cause I doubt he’s going to trade any of Hill/Lind/Downs (low value) or Marcum (ditto). Wouldn’t surprise me to see him deal a prospect or two for a RF or maybe one of the young starters/Encarnacion/McDonald (can’t I hope?). I’d be very surprised if this was his last deal, though

by boo15749 on Dec 17, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm thinking

we’ll see some of the pitching depth (read: Tallet, Richmond, Purcey, Ray etc) moved to get someone to play RF and/or potentially leadoff.

I know he doesn’t leadoff and hasn’t played a lot of RF but Doumit has played RF in the past…and the Jays were interested…

by bunner on Dec 17, 2009 3:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Gonna be fun, eh?

In the outfield we’ve got: Snider, Wells, Lind, Bautista plus Sierra, Thames, Chavez and Loewen on the road to TO.

At third we’ve got: EE with Wallace (maybe) and Aherns, Sobolewski, Campbell and Eamus trying to get to TO.

At SS we’ve got Gonzo and the Prime Minister in house with Pastornicky and Jackson trying to join the team.

At 2nd we’ve King of the Hill with Tolisano and the losers at SS and 3rd in the mix.

At first we’ve got Overbay, Ruiz, and Lind in the bigs with Wallace (maybe), Dopriak and McDade all coming up the stretch.

At C we’ve Buck with Chavez nearby and Arencibia and D’Arnaud and Jeroloman looking to make the big time.

In 2010 from an offensive point of view if Wallace is up from at least June – then SO MUCH of what we do depends on how Wells and EE perform. With Lind, Hill Snider and Wallace as a VERY SOLID YOUNG four stars Wells and EE performing at least at league average would go a long way to making NY and Boston wary about venturing into our lair.

by Mylegacy on Dec 17, 2009 3:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

a little early to be crowning wallace a star

i wonder if there’s a website that somehow tracks what percentage of “expert” projections of prospects turn out to be even somewhat accurate. im sure the number is pretty low.

by ucantcoachthat on Dec 18, 2009 3:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So what does the organizational depth chart (and order) look like?

1. Justin Jackson SS?
2. Aaron Hill 2B
3. Adam Lind DH
4. Travis Snider LF
5. Brett Wallace 1B
6. Kevin Ahrens 3B?
7. Travis D’Arnaud/ J.P. Arencebia C
8. Moises Sierra RF?
9. CF?

by SPENCEMAN on Dec 17, 2009 3:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wells is in CF he isn’t going anywhere for awhile.

Life as a Toronto Sports Fan?... *sigh*... It is what it is...

by JohnnyG on Dec 17, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Kid is beginning to impress me with his work so far. Although the Wallace-Taylor trade surprised me as it did with many other Jays fans, I think it was a good decision. Wallace more than likely fits a position of need for us (1B or 3B) than Taylor. Plus, as you’ve said Tom, the likelyhood of Taylor continuing to be as speedy as he is now with his weight is quite small.

I’ve also been researching the two prospects, and even though Taylor intrigues me with his size and skills, Wallace has really grown on me. He’s interested me ever since the Cardinals snagged him right before the Jays could have drafted him. I guess it was fate that brought him to Toronto. lol

Here’s a conspiracy theory for you all btw: What if AA is using reverse psychology by stating that Brett Wallace is more likely moving to 1B than sticking at 3B, motivating Wallace to work harder on his D at third?

by Frag on Dec 17, 2009 4:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

lol I know

But I hope the kid luck. Lets hope he can play his position and can become a good major leaguer.

by Frag on Dec 17, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

as for right now

we have EE manning third and doing a decent enough job, so maybe Wallace can use some of his hot corner skills and become an above-average fielding first baseman to replace Overbay’s ability with the glove

by boo15749 on Dec 17, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

From AA's interview on Prime Time Sports the other day

I think its fair to assume that hes far from done making deals. I’d have to think hes either going to manage to move Overbay and/or some of our excess young arms and/or Accardo for either a few solid B prospects or a speedy leadoff OFer.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Dec 17, 2009 5:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Off topic but...

It looks like “She Who Must Be Obeyed” is going to approve me going to spring Training for a couple of weeks in March.

Can anyone who’s been there recommend a reasonably priced place to stay? I’ve googled the place and the Holiday Inn Express on Broadway seems OKish. It looks to be about $150 a night – I’d rather someplace without bugs and that has free Internet that’s a smidge under $100 – but I realize beggars can’t be choosers.

Any suggestions?

by Mylegacy on Dec 17, 2009 10:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

maybe Doc will put you up at his house in Odessa

it’s only about thirty miles out of town.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Dec 17, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ay -

…That’s an interesting site – I might end up using it – thanks! However, if someone has a reference based on their personal experience – I’d be interested in hearing that too.

jessef – Roy turned my crash request down when he heard I expected him to supply the scotch!

by Mylegacy on Dec 18, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

did you try hotels.com (that was a non-compensated suggestion)

by aagoodfella on Dec 18, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i haven't stayed in Dunedin before, but

i’ve had excellent experiences with VRBO.

by ayjackson on Dec 18, 2009 6:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

solution to a problem i might be making larger than it is ?????

does anyone like me see a possible solution to vernon by placing him in the leadoff spot ?

the most frusterating aspect of his game for me this year was his pitch selection !
the discipline required to get on base and see pitches allowing the rest of the line up a chance to watch might change his approach at the plate -

pitch 1
watch the first fast ball
strike one
option 2 – foul ball – couldnt catch up to it –
result – strike one

pitch 2 –
low and away curve ball – breaking pitch that made him look sick – not once but consistantly –
strike 2
option 2 – fouled off to the first base side of the field barely nicking the end of his bat

either way when you enter 70 % of third pitches in your at bat 0 -2 ( and your names not adam lind ) your going to have a hard time turning things back in your favor – or predict what willl come next with the pitchers ability to waste up to three pitches before being forced to give in !

lucas

by TorontoBluejays10 on Dec 18, 2009 10:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I thought that was the Rios formula

by aagoodfella on Dec 18, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

seems pretty overgeneralized to me

i always thought he swung at first pitches too often and didn’t take enough pitches. i don’t think he’s an ideal candidate for leadoff because his OBA isn’t very high, but i actually wouldn’t mind seeing him there for a little while, because his speed on the basepaths would be nice with Lind and Hill smacking doubles.

by boo15749 on Dec 18, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

VERNON AND ALEX ARE NOT COMPARABLE -

VDUBS HAS BATTED OVER 300 HIT 30 JACKS AND DRIVEN IN 100 PLUS – RIOS HAS NEVER DONE THE LATTER TWO !

I GET ON VERNON BECAUSE I DO BELIEVE HE IS BETTER THAN WE’VE SEEN THE PAST YEAR !
INJURIES OR NOT HE NEEDS TO BE SMARTER MORE DEDICATED AND UNDERSTAND IF YOU ARE GOING TO TRY TO PLAY THROUGH AND INJURY YOU PROBABLY CANT dO THE SAME THINGS AS WHEN YOUR HEALTHY ..

vdubs for comeback player of the year

- giving the jays back to back winners for the award !

lucas

by TorontoBluejays10 on Dec 18, 2009 1:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

preaching to the choir — I too think VW is ok

remember through the first five weeks of the season he was off to a respectable, albeit typically slow start, averaging 277, OBPin 336 and slugging 477. Then, in the Oakland series (May 8-10 in California) he went 1 for 15 and it was downhill ever since. Obviously something went wrong, and I would speculate it was the injury. I expect he will do much better this year.

by aagoodfella on Dec 18, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

season-wise Vernon has been pretty inconsistent over his career: excellent in 2003, good in 2006 and 2008 (despite injury) and somewhat mediocre in the other seasons (but not as bad as people make it out to be IMHO). if he could have a comeback year it would be really nice – maybe turn him into a little less of a goat (wishful thinking again). if AA is thinking of unloading him a decent season would certainly help that cause as well

by boo15749 on Dec 18, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

probably unmovable for a couple of reasons (1) no trade (2) way expensive contract

by aagoodfella on Dec 18, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

certainly

but if there was someone who, for reasons beyond me, did want to pay him an obscene amount of money (Omar Minaya?) it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he’d accept the trade. just not if he plays like he did for most of last year.

by boo15749 on Dec 18, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, it might be a good thing to try...

Putting VW in the lead off role might force him to change his approach at the plate. He might develop a little more patience and less attempts to pull the ball in an effort to get on base. It could rejuvenate his career.

Of course, the downside is that it could completely mess with his head and his mechanics and leave him completely lost and making him a really expensive Millar for next season.

by siggian on Dec 21, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

INSTEAD of looking at eating salery or making a move that handicaps us and requires us to fill the hole is a non issue in this point of a rebuild – unless someone as dumb as JP comes along and alex rios’s the whole thing !

I would take 120 – 140 games played
265 – 280 average
15 – 22 homeruns
65 – 80 rbi
and a bit better than average corner outfield defence
- we need him out of CENTER FIELD ASAP !

- what happened to his arm ? does anyone remember people pulling up at third on base hits up the middle with a runner on second ( i swear i wasnt dreaming that it actually used to happen right ? ) lol

lucas

by TorontoBluejays10 on Dec 18, 2009 4:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

last year he only missed your cutoff points by .005 AVG

and he played 158 games. besides, the difference between a player who hits like he did last year (260/15/66) and one who hits like 2004 Vernon (272/23/67) is HUGE in the eyes of fans and the media. at this point I think most people would be pretty happy with his 2004 numbers (OPS+ of 104) even though that’s one of his most average seasons – anything but 2009 and 2007 (88 and 85 OPS+, respectively) would definitely be passable IMO

by boo15749 on Dec 18, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I never remember him having that great of an arm

definitely nothing above average for a CFer.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Dec 19, 2009 12:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

actually not only did Wells have a solid arm

it’s still pretty good — 2 runs above average last season, and generally average or better most seasons of his career.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 19, 2009 6:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

do you mean his defence ( im still learning the terms ) was responsible for allowing two less runs than the average CFer ? sorry for the slow reply

lucas

by TorontoBluejays10 on Dec 19, 2009 10:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

yes

but I think it’s scaled to the average outfielder, not the average centerfielder.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 19, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

also,

the “reply” button at the bottom of each comment allows you to show more easily what you’re responding to, just helps keep everything more organized

by boo15749 on Dec 19, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

rf – wells
cf – ? _______ / bautista
lf – snider / bautista

is there anyone who could fill that ?
I know bradley was mentioned and im realll happy seattle picked him up ( i dont even know if that wells for bradley rumour was legitimate ( i dont think so ) …. but is there anything available that is affordable -

was gathright given the minor league deal in hopes he could platoon with bautista in right or center ???
anyways very excited too see us hopefully rid seven million in salary from lyle give youth or someone whose never really had a chance . i:e dopriak / ruiz
Obviously downs / frasor would make us that much better but i feel with theyre value and our current position one of them is expendable –
what would seattle have in prospects or current contrable young roster position players with high upside for

overbay
downs
- ? – i feel that for some reason this will likely be a three person deal on our end and two back from seattle -- hopefully because we dont have to eat any money from overslump .

lucas

by TorontoBluejays10 on Dec 19, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Taylor

WHy is he considered the lesser bat when statistically he’s better than wallace?
Even BP’s goldstein said he’s a unique player who’s reworked his batting mechanics. In college he followed the “stanford swing” taught to all their players. Flat swing opposite field approach. There’s some nice articles on it if you google stanford swing. Finally in pro ball, Taylor’s upside and physical tools caught up with better results. Also why concerns about Taylors weight and body type when wallace is 5 inches shorter about the same weight? Seems like the trade fits both teams needs. Yet all of wallace value is tied into his bat. Now 3 teams have deemed his 3b defense not good enough and having to shift him.

by MagicMike23 on Dec 19, 2009 4:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

while I think Taylor is a very good looking young player,

you can’t just compare Taylor’s stats to Wallace’s as if they were apples to apples. Wallace is over a year younger than Taylor and yet played most of last season (over 440 plate appearances) at AAA, while Taylor put up his numbers mostly at AA with just 128 plate appearances at AAA. To be younger and yet playing at a higher level than Taylor means a lot. Essentially, Wallace was a 22-year old at AAA and Taylor was a 23-year old at AA so that really needs to be taken into account.

Also, I don’t know where you got your data, but fangraphs has Taylor as having 45 pounds on Wallace. Obviously, he’s a lot taller, and I’m not one who has voiced any concerns over Taylor’s weight (other than agreeing it probably means he won’t be much of a basestealer for long), but it’s not as if they weigh the same.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 19, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

fangraphs lists him at 205 which is wrong

wallace is around 245 lbs or close to that. They are 8 months apart which makes a difference, but all it means really they were aggressive in promoting wallace between levels. Taylor came in more as a project trying to rework his hitting mechanics. As it should be since wallace was a top 1st half 1st rd pick and taylor a 5th rd pick. Even if the bats were comparable, its still there difference between a 1b/DH and a RF

by MagicMike23 on Dec 19, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Baseball Reference has Wallace at 245, so that's certainly possible

there’s no doubt he’s a big kid. Also, you’re right about the ages, somehow I had it a little mixed up. I don’t know if it’s that Wallace has been promoted aggressively, Taylor was 23 last year and spent most of the year in AA, which isn’t aggressive at all. I understand a lot of that was because of his need to work on mechanics, but still.

Anyway, I don’t think there’s any doubt that Taylor is a very nice looking young player. The Jays think Wallace has more offensive upside, and it is pretty tempting to acquire a player who you think can be a marquis offensive player for a number of cost-controlled years. I was skeptical of the move at first as I tend to prefer more well-rounded players, but if you can hit, you can hit.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 19, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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