2010 Amateur Draft Very Early Preview

by hugo on Dec 19, 2009 2:00 PM EST in Analysis Comment 26 comments

Well, most of the Type A free agents are signed so the draft order for the Jays (and the rest of the league) is starting to crystallize. As of now, here are the Jays' picks (h/t to River Ave Blues, a fantastic site that does a nice job representing Yankees fans in the interwebs)

First Round:

#11 (the Jays' own first-round pick)

Sandwich Round:

#33 (supplemental pick for Scutaro, which turns out to be higher than the Red Sox pick they get for Vespa)

#38 (for failing to sign James Paxton, a 2009 sandwich rounder)

Second Round:

#52 (the Jays' second round pick)

#69 (for failing to sign Jake Eliopolous, a 2009 second-round pick)

#70 (the pick coming over from the Red Sox for Marco)

Third Round:

#84 (the Jays' third-round pick)

#104 (for their failure to sign Jake Barrett, a Jays' 3rd-round pick in 2009).

If Rod Barajas signs with another team, the Jays will get another pick in the supplemental round, probably somewhere in the 40s. That would make 9 picks in the first 3 rounds, and 5 in the top 50 or so. General Manager Alex Anthopolous mentioned in his chat yesterday that he plans to use this draft to "flood the Minor league system with high-end talent."

Between the players the Jays got in the Halladay trade, those coming over in the Rolen trade last season, and this year's draft, particularly with Anthopolous' renewed emphasis on scouting and stated willingness to exceed slot (not that that helped all that much last year), I think it's reasonable to expect that the Jays minor-league system can become a consensus top-10 system by the time the dust clears after the draft. That's actually quite good considering how many young players the Jays have promoted from the system in the past couple of seasons to the major-league team. And it will go a long way toward making the Jays competitive down the road without resorting too heavily to the free-agent market. I've always believed you bring your core players up through the system and with trades, and go to free agents only to plug holes when you're almost ready to contend.

While having so many picks would potentially allow the Jays to really distribute their picks among position, I have to admit, I don't think they should prioritize any positions really. I think teams get into trouble when they do that. I'd use the draft to try to nab the best talent available that I think will sign. I do think it's important to look at a mix of more polished, "safer" players and more athletic, "upside"-type players.

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Nice blog Hugo

I`s agree entirley with ur stated opinion about the ethos of `floodin` the system with enough talent to be able to build a strong team over time rather than overpaying with bandaid FA`s. Hopefully we can sign our picks this year and I have faith that A.A can do just that. Btw why do we have the 11 and not the 9 overall?

by voidhelix on Dec 19, 2009 2:28 PM EST reply actions

because when teams have the same record the tie breaker goes to who has the worse record

the prior year, and the jays had the better record in 08 than the two teams they tied with in 09

by ClintB on Dec 19, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the reality check

Last top 10 pick was Romero right? We need to make this one count

by voidhelix on Dec 19, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

LOL ..entirely`s what I meant

by voidhelix on Dec 19, 2009 2:29 PM EST reply actions

good lord, look at the Angels

they have 3 first round picks and 1st round supplementals for a total of 5 PICKS !!!! even before the second round starts – talk about a stacked farm system

by aagoodfella on Dec 19, 2009 3:38 PM EST reply actions

i think the jays should look to draft as many high ceiling high school pitchers as possible

guys who could potentially be staff aces… and then maybe look for more athleticism after that.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Dec 19, 2009 4:02 PM EST reply actions

I say stick with the best talent available regardless of position

by ClintB on Dec 19, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

KLaw says...

Over at ESPN – for insiders – Klaw has an excellent VERY EARLY look at the 2010 “Class”. Bryce Harper – now that he’s eligible for the 2010 draft looks to be the sole “Number One guy” after that he sees a “dozen” who might be in contention for number 2 etc. He talks about 44 guys in all.

The link is (you’ll have to copy and paste – I’ve never learned the high tech link stuff) :

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2009/insider/news/story?id=4253106

by Mylegacy on Dec 19, 2009 4:09 PM EST reply actions

Espn have Harper going 2011

by voidhelix on Dec 19, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

the college season hasn't even started yet, i don't think.

I’m not sure about high school, but I imagine it starts in the new year sometime. These early previews are just a talking point.

by ayjackson on Dec 20, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions

WOW - I LEARNED SOMETINING, I LEARNED SOMETHING...

I didn’t realize my copying and pasting would “automatically” become a “real link” – WOW – ain’t I the high tech wizard!

by Mylegacy on Dec 19, 2009 4:11 PM EST reply actions

I like this line

While having so many picks would potentially allow the Jays to really distribute their picks among position, I have to admit, I don’t think they should prioritize any positions really.

When you are scouting guys 17-18 years old, you never know what position they might play when they get to the bigs, different guys fill out differently as they age. Catchers put on weight and end up moving to first. Guys you think will play CF end up in a corner. Grab guys you think can move up and let how they develop pick their position.

by Tom Dakers on Dec 19, 2009 4:29 PM EST reply actions

Round by Round Pick Counts

Ok, I put it in a pivot table and broke out number of picks, on a cumulative basis, through each round including one, one supplemental, two , three, three supplemental and four. Results are presented below:

As Hugo pointed out, many thanks to http://riveraveblues.com/2010-draft-order/ for providing the raw data.

Easily, the four best-positioned teams for this year’s draft are the Angers, Blue Jays, Rangers and Rays, interestingly, all AL teams. You can make an argument that Rays and Rangers are slightly better-positioned than the Jays, because they have more (pre-supplemental) first round picks than do the Jays, but factoring in the supplemental first round, Jays move ahead. By the fourth round, the Jays have two more picks than the Rays and three more than the Rangers, so from that perspective the Jays are better off. I do not think there is can be much argument that the Angels have the best positioning for the draft this year.

Based on draft positioning, I think the farm system outlook for Mariners and Orioles looks bleak. If I was the Mariners, I would definitely GO FOR IT, this year.

Round 1 Most Picks:
Angels (3)
Rangers (2)
Rays (2)
All others (1)

Round 1 + Supplemental Picks:
Angels (5)
Blue Jays (3)
Rangers (3)
Rays (3)
Red Sox (2)
Tigers (2)
All others (1)

Cume Through Round 2 Picks:
Angels (6)
Blue Jays (6)
Rangers (4)
Rays (4)
Braves (3)
Tigers (3)
Everyone else but Mariners & Orioles (2)
Mariners & Orioles (1)

Cume Through Round 3 Picks:
Angels (7)
Blue Jays (7)
Rays (6)
Rangers (5)
Braves (4)
Tigers (4)
Everyone else but Mariners & Orioles (3)
Mariners & Orioles (2)

Cume Through Round 3 Supplement Picks:
Angels (8)
Blue Jays (8)
Rays (6)
Rangers (5)
Braves, Tigers, White Sox (4)
Everyone else but Mariners & Orioles (3)
Mariners & Orioles (2)

Cume Through Round 4 Picks:
Angels (9)
Blue Jays (9)
Rays (7)
Rangers (6)
Braves, Tigers, White Sox (5)
Everyone else but Mariners & Orioles (4)
Mariners & Orioles (3)

by aagoodfella on Dec 19, 2009 4:30 PM EST reply actions

High school picks

I don`t think the problem with those guys is them switching positions but actually whether they`ll continue to play ball at all or that they`ll wait and hope to get a better pay day further along. Also it`s true there`s some ambiguousness regarding positon at that age it`s not always true.

by voidhelix on Dec 19, 2009 4:40 PM EST reply actions

2010 Draft Weighted to AL

The 2010 draft appears to favour the AL. Although the AL includes 14 of 30 MLB teams or 47% total, AL teams control a disproportionately strong 52% of draft picks through the first four rounds per http://riveraveblues.com/2010-draft-order/. In contrast, the 16 NL MLB teams, or 53% of the league, control only 48% of draft slots.

The imbalance may be worse than just AL-weighted pick count. The AL also enjoys higher picks. More specifically, the average AL pick is 67.2 versus the NL’s 69.9. This is due to the fact that the pick count advantage enjoyed by AL teams is highest in the earlier draft rounds. In the first round (including supplemental) AL teams control 61%. In the third round (including supplemental) AL teams control 53% of draft slots. The NL controls 55% of round two slots and 53% of fourth round slots.

Arguably much of the advantage comes from supplemental rounds, where AL teams control 58% of supplemental picks highlighted by Angels, Blue Jays and Rays with three each and thus collectively control 23% of supplemental picks.

by aagoodfella on Dec 20, 2009 1:31 AM EST reply actions

is the average AL payroll higher than the average NL payroll

because the compensation system tends to favour teams with higher payrolls who are more active in free agency

by ayjackson on Dec 20, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

I'm sure the mean payroll is substantially higher

but I don’t know about the median.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 20, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

According to the good folks at About.com ( http://baseball.about.com/od/newsrumors/a/09teamsalaries.htm ), in 2009 the average AL payroll was $93.3M, versus NL’s $83.3 million, implying an 11% premium. The median 2009 AL team payroll salary was $81.6M, versus NL’s $77.6M, implying a 5% premium.

by aagoodfella on Dec 20, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

some good response times for Sunday morning

colour me impressed

by ayjackson on Dec 20, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

Of the teams with the most picks this year, only the Angels maintain a ($113.7M) payroll above the MLB avg ($88.5M) AND MLB media ($80.4M). The Jays $80.5M is a below the average and only a hair above the median. Both the Rays’ $63.3M and Rangers $68.2M are well below both the average and median.

by aagoodfella on Dec 20, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

Expect

signability picks for their compensatory picks. These picks have zero leverage and they won’t get them back. So proper maneuvering of choosing between high upside talent and guys they need to sign.

Might be playing with fire if too conservative but nonetheless it’ll be an interesting draft when it comes around.

AWmusic - mp3 blog.
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by achengy on Dec 20, 2009 4:12 AM EST reply actions

seems to make sense

draft risky guys who you might not sign with the picks that you’ll get back next year… and play it safe with all the compensation picks.

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Dec 20, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, but that's just three picks...

38, 69 and 104…so that’s reasonable

Sign some of those signability guys like Cecil, Rzepczynski and Mills.

by ayjackson on Dec 20, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

I do however feel that the Jays have a large surplus of 'signability' young players and prospects

and not enough “high ceiling” guys.

it seems like our entire rotation is made up of potential #3 starters (not necessarily a bad thing, but it’d be nice to have some other guys to go along with Drabek etc. who look like they could be really special, even if there is a higher risk involved.)

Onions Baby Onions

by ohmybosh on Dec 21, 2009 12:47 AM EST up reply actions

Totally agree you got to take best guy available

by BBKING on Dec 21, 2009 10:22 AM EST reply actions

I believe it's already been said above, but...

…with the compensation picks for failing to sign the guys last year, you have to take guys you know for sure you can sign. With the other picks, take the best possible available.

by Jevant on Dec 21, 2009 11:04 AM EST reply actions