Payroll will be down more than 25% YoY from 2009. Rogers will be seeing if revenues drop 25% (or, more accurately, enough to nullify the drop in expenses, since payroll isn’t the only expense) as well; I think it’s unlikely, particularly if they do a good job of selling the "build" to Joe Sixpack. If not, then what you and I (as baseball fans) perceive as a debacle is actually a great move from a perspective of managing risk and building shareholder value, which is all Rogers cares about.

Couple of things there. If revenue is down 25% next year, Rogers is worrying a lot more about that than the payroll. You have to look at it as a synergistic package; the ownership of the Toronto Blue Jays has about five key points of revenue for Rogers; gate receipts, merchandizing, value added marketing, media sales and finally, television access/advertising. Guess which one is far and away the largest and most valuable? If you choose television, you would be correct.

So yes, ultimately, shareholder value and risk management are key elements, but unlike other corporate owners, as a media entity, the success of the Jays has an impact across their major business lines, due to that synergistic involvement. So in that context, it actually makes more sense to add money into payroll, because any success multiplies across two, three, four different channels in terms of revenue back to Rogers.

Somebody made the point a few months ago that the Leafs are in the same situation and that’s why they don’t win. If you came up with a scenario that guaranteed a Stanley Cup but meant the pension plan dividend would drop a few points, it would be voted down unanimously.

Very true, but there are some fundamental differences between the Jays and ownership by Rogers, and the Leafs and ownership by the Teachers Pension Plan. First of all, the Leafs were purchased strictly as an investment to maintain a stable ROI. The fan bases are different, and the gate is hugely more significant a revenue stream than television to the owners, who gain the broadcast fees, but receive no benefit whether or not ratings change. The Leafs fanbase is also much older, deeper, and more regional than the Jays, which is why they still sell out most games in the city, despite no customer service, inflated prices and a terrible product on ice. The other thing is because of the importance of the gate, the Leafs don’t have a lot of market growth remaining; there simply aren’t many other ways for MLSE to generate revenue left, so any extra expense is coming out of the existing return, as opposed to growing it.

The Jays are different. You have a transnational base to potentially tap, a much smaller and more fickle fanbase, and a vastly different scope in terms of industry and sports culture. So for the Jays to drop to $25m and decide to sit at the bottom of the league; the diminishing returns across the entire set of business channels would far far outstrip any savings in payroll. In short, the risk and magnification of loss is greater for the team to cut payroll than it is to expand it. If they could fill the Dome night after night with a $25mil team would they? Of course, but they can’t. You can’t sell 50K here nightly tanking for five years.

What we’re seeing right now makes a lot of sense. Anthopoulos has gone in to sell an idea of sustainability. Rogers approach with the team from the start is to make it national and provide an all over approach to it as a business line. While attendance dropped, televsion ratings barely declined, and in some cases, increased last year. That’s why Rogers isn’t acting like Interbrew and culling the payroll. I also don’t think Rogers is leading the decisions on the payroll. The media has been pretty consistant about saying they’ll support Beeston and Anthopoulos’ requirements. But I would say that they’ve likely been pretty open on the baseball side about tracking the overall value across the business lines of the Jays, and looking to say that the greater the investment, the sooner it shows in the return, and AA isn’t about to make his move until he’s sure he’s got a solid idea how to make that happen via success on the field.

I think any FA signings are going to be in February, and while they won’t be major, the Jays will add a few pieces to maintain that outside shot at the lowest cost possible, and see what shakes down in 2010.