So Far We Are: Meet Your New Blue Jays, Brett Wallace
This is the second part in a 3-part series that will take a bit of a closer look at the three players obtained by the Blue Jays in the Roy Halladay trades. In part I, we took a look at righty pitching sensation Kyle Drabek.
As you will remember, Brett Wallace (I keep wanting to call him David Wallace after the Dunder Mifflin CFO) wasn't actually traded for Roy Halladay. Rather, the Blue Jays received outfield prospect Michael Taylor in that trade, but had already reached a deal with the Oakland Athletics to flip Taylor for Wallace. What made that trade possible was that neither Taylor nor Wallace, who came over from St. Louis in the Matt Holliday trade, had been drafted by their respective teams and so neither GM had a real vested interest in their player - it's rare to see a GM trade one of his draftee top prospects for another untested propsect before either has ever seen the majors.
Unlike Taylor, who was a 5th round pick, Wallace came with a draft pedigree - he was drafted in the 1st round by the Cardinals in the 2008 amateur player draft out of Arizona State University. That wasn't the first time he was drafted, either - the Jays themselves took Wallace in the 42nd round of the 2005 draft, but the Sonoma, California native chose to become a Sun Devil instead. He met fellow Californian and new organizational teammate Aaron Hill at the all-star break last season when Hill started for the AL and Wallace played in the Futures Game.
In college, Wallace quickly established himself as one of the NCAA's best hitters - he won two triple crowns and was the Pac-10's player of the year twice. Like most college draftees, Wallace was assigned to short-season A ball, but played his way out of A entirely when he was moved to AA for the end of the season. Wallace started 2009 in double A and then went up to AAA, where he especially turned it on after his trade to Oakland's system, hitting .302/.365/.505 in just over 200 plate appearances. Folks that thought Taylor's numbers in the minors to be more impressive than Wallace's just weren't considering that Wallace was younger, played at a higher level, and put up those numbers in his first full season of professional ball (as opposed to Taylor's second full season), which is extremely impressive. Make no mistake, this kid can hit.
His defense, on the other hand, is another thing. While Wallace is a third-base prospect, and has earned praise for his good hands and arm, there has been significant doubt that Wallace can stay at the hot corner. It has been said he is a "good athlete stuck in a bad body" and most baseball people just don't think he has the range or quickness to stick at third. The Jays have already announced that they plan to use him at first base, even though no one is blocking him at third base in the minors and the Jays have Brian Dopirak, who played much of 2009 at AAA, and David Cooper, who played at AA, at first base (though Cooper's star has faded, it's too early to give up on him).
At the plate, Wallace, a left-handed hitter, is described as a "pure" hitter with a solid approach at the plate, reluctant to expand the strike zone on the pitcher's terms. As scouts have noted, Wallace has a very strong lower body he uses to generate power and is very good at staying on his back leg to generate power and lay off bad pitches. Hitters get in trouble when they get onto their front side too early, as we saw all too often with Alex Rios last season. With Wallace's lower body strength and ability to stay on his back side, I think substantial power will come, and his approach bodes well for him to consistently reach base as well. Although Wallace didn't display that patience in AAA last season, it is understandable as he was taking his first taste of AAA in his first full big league season. I'd expect walk rates over 10% this season in AAA.
As a hitter, Wallace has been described as almost ready for the big leagues. It will take some time for him to learn first base, I'm guessing, so that will keep him in the minors for a bit, but with Lyle Overbay perhaps on his way out, Wallace could be in the big leagues in 2009. He says he wasts to make it as hard as possible for the Jays to send him to AAA. It's hard not to be excited about the offensive upside someone like Wallace brings - particularly when combined with fellow young lefty mashers Travis Snider and Adam Lind. We can be patient with Wallace, but I'm not sure we will have to be patient for very long.
Please share your hopes for Wallace and your thoughts on the Taylor-for-Wallace trade in the comments.
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I love Wallace
The dude can flat out hit. His build reminds me a lot of Travis Snider, as well as his hitting capabilities. We might have a problem with 3 straight lefties as our 3-5 hitters, as a lefty reliever can just come in and shut them down.
HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!
fair point
Scouts say Wallace will hit lefties in the majors (he was a very respectable .286/.354/.429/.783 against southpaws with Oakland’s AAA team last season) and of course while Lind struggled against lefties in the minors, he hit them quite well last season: (.275/.318/.461/.780) so it may not be as huge a problem as it would seem.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
if necessary
we could (though I do like him in the 2 spot) stick Hill in there, or something like leadoff-Lind-Hill-Wallace/Snider if that became an issue
Wells will bat either 4 or 5 next year
So my guess is Hill- Wells-Lind at 3-5
I'd rather have VW at the leadoff spot.
Unless his recent wrist surgery has ended his power outage.
But then, the thought of EE or RR at the 4th & 5th slots in the line-up is rather disconcerting.
Wow...
If our 2-3-4-5 is actually (and legitimately) a permutation of Hill-Lind-Wallace-Snider in a couple of season I don’t think we will have to worry too much about the lefty thing… if those guys are good enough to be in those spots it’s not a bad problem to have considering the amount of production we’ll be getting out of four young and every exciting bats.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
What else is scary
Would be our pitching in a few years. Not in order: Drabek – Marcum – Romero – Cecil – McGowan/Rzep/Litsch/etc.
What’s even more amazing is that this team could become even more loaded with the upcoming 2010 draft, where we have 9 picks in the first 3 rounds. Wow…
just to be devil's advocate
we were saying that about 2010, too: Halladay-McGowan-Marcum-Romero-Litsch…
(but i agree. that could be fun to watch.)
Wallace
As noted he can hit…and I think we’ll see him start to hit with a little more power this year too. I beleive he’ll be a 30+ HR, 100 + RBI guy in the bigs with good average/on-base skills.
It shouldn't matter how many prospects we have at first
They obviously like Wallace more then Cooper and Dopriak. Also, having a lot of talent at one position is the best problem to have. If they all, or two of them end up panning out and we can’t find sufficient at bats for them, then they can be traded for value somewhere else. Really not an issue at this point.
Boner!!
thats it.. best part of this trade was swinging for wallace.. this is the first time i’ve been excited about the jays in recent memory and now that i am about to graduate school i’m definitly going to invest in seasons :D great days ahead for toronto sports
I can wear it one day, then not wear it the next day. It's like a pair of glasses, some days I wear it, some days I don't. I'm not wearing any underwear either. There is no reason. - Mogilny "on Visors"
2-3-4-5
I see: Hill®, Lind(L), Snider®, Wallace(L)
That way they have to bring in TWO lefties to get at Lind and Wallace or TWO righties to get at Hill and Snider. Most pens don’t have TWO good lefties.
Those FOUR GUYS are SERIOUS MEAT! In a couple of years these four may end up being the best number 2 to 5 hitters we’ve had in Jays history.
Snider is Lefthanded
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I'm pretty sure that's a brain fart
mylegacy follows things close enough to know snider’s a lefty
definitely
everyone makes those mistakes occasionally
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I don't want to sound like one of the clueless fans who doesn't know what he's talking about
But I will for a second.
I’ve been watching MilB Box Scores for two years now, keeping an eye on Dopirak. I understand getting Wallace if he’s the better hitter than Michael Taylor, but I’m a little disappointed in what seems to be a disinterest on Dopirak, on the part of the front office. Mind you I can only base my opinion on numbers, these numbers are quite solid across all levels.
However, perhaps the plan is to trade Overbay this offseason, put Dopirak/Ruiz at 1B to “showcase” them, then perhaps flip them to another team, once Wallace is ready the following season.
Of course, I put my faith in AA that he knows a lot more about his minor league system than we do, so it’s all good.
For those who are interested, Dopirak’s Winter League #’s in Venezuela this year.
Avg. 270 OBP. 358 SLG. .474 OPS. .833
AB 137 HR 7 RBI 32 (over 600 AB HR 31 RBI 141)
Ruiz
in his short time with us he posted something along this line.
Avg. 313 OBP. 338 SLG. .635 OPS. 1.019
AB 115 HR 10 RBI 17
at that rate and with that slugging% he will have about 50+ HR in just about 600 ABs ( which is really rare this days too see)
that's true
but Ruiz also had a horrific 11% line drive rate, hit a home run for almost every three fly balls (yes, that’s more than Barry Bonds) and batted .371 on balls in play (his line drive rate suggests it should have been more like .225). These are completely unsustainable models for major-league success. Oh, and he’ll be 32 next season and doesn’t exactly project to age well. The Jays have been starved for offense for years so I’m not prepared to just write Ruiz off, since undeniably he provided an offensive spark last season. I wouldn’t mind giving him a shot this season. But the truth is that continuing anything close to what he did in 2009 is very unlikely and even more unlikely is the idea that he is any sort of long- or even mid-term solution. I don’t think he’d be 2008 Frank Thomas if he won the DH job, but it’s even more unlikely he’d be as good as 2007 Frank Thomas.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Ruiz
I really hope they open with Ruiz in the DH spot. Not because I think he’s the answer there, but I think the guy’s certainly earned a shot at playing every day, but the other thing is that if he has a first half anything like his second half last year, you can move him near the deadline for way over his value. Say Dopirak and Wallace start strong in 2010 and we’ve got Overbay, shift them both at the deadline and move the two rookies up.
I like Dopirak myself
but let’s not forget the Jays potentially have both 1st base and DH open, assuming Overbay is traded and Lind is needed in the outfield. Dopirak is not considered to be a good fielder at first at all, and people think Wallace can be. The other thing is that Dopirak hits from a different side of the plate than Wallace, Snider, and Lind, which makes things a little more flexible.
I don’t think the Jays are ruling Dopriak out, but I do know they don’t like his first base defense, which means he’s not a player they necessarily want to build around either. Personally, I’d like to see Dopriak have a chance to win the DH job this season, and/or the first base job if Overbay is moved. Lyle has a chance of being a type B free agent, but not a particularly good one. I’m not totally sold on Dopriak, but he deserves a chance, and I think he’ll get one.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
fair enough, can't really argue with that
If Dopirak is indeed a bad defender to the point where they don’t feel comfortable with him being out there, then he probably doesn’t really fit into the Jays long plans, given the fact that they already have a player like that – Lind. I doubt he could do what Lind does.
I think it’s reasonable to think he could have a +.800 OPS. and hit 25 HR’s over a full season though.
So…. Maybe the Jays could.
1) Move Overbay for a prospect this offseason (i.e. similar return to what he got for Stairs)
2) Give AB’s to Dopirak and Ruiz at 1B in 2010.
3) If they do well, you might be able to move one to another team for a few prospects. Contending teams are always looking for hitting, and if they’re controllable for a while, all the better.
4) If one or both do very well, heck, who knows, you might actually have something, where it’s worth moving Lind back to the OF, and take the hit defensively. In that scenario, some of the money saved in getting a good third outfielder via free agency (say in 2011, 2012 and beyond) could be spent on a 3B (if any are available) or solid veteran pitcher.
I think the thing with Dopirak is that diehard fans, like myself, have been following him in the minors for the last 2 years, and that aside from Snider, he’s been one of the only players to hit for power consistently over that time. So we’ve kind of taken a liking to him.
I agree that middle of the order lineup (2-3,4,5,6) of Hill, Lind, Snider, Wallace, Wells looks pretty good.
Ahem, they aren't the only ones who hit for power consistently.
Chip Cannon? John-Ford Griffin? AKA the future of this team?
Again, can't argue too much with that comparison. Kind of puts things in perspective, when you think back.
To be fair though, there is a difference.
Cannon career MilB OPS .816 avg. .255
Griffin career MilB OPS .799 avg. .265
Even during the seasons where they hit for power consistently they couldn’t hit for average or get on base the way Dopirak has in the past two years. He has OPS’ed near .900 during that time, and was once considered a top Cubs prospect before a few injuries derailed him.
But yeah, when everything is said and done, we’re probably not talking about an impact guy here. There unfortunately, just hasn’t been much to talk about on the Jays farm, so he’s been fun to watch. All the more reason to be excited about Wallace!
hmpf
I’m guessing a high prospect, probably an infielder (Cooper? Ahrens?)
I hope they plan to use Morrow as a starter, or else the trade does not make sense. The M’s rushed Morrow to the Majors (after only pitching 16.0 innings in R and A-ball in 2006 after being drafted in the 1st round that same year). Electric fastball, especially as a reliever, but doesn’t have command of ANY of his pitches.
interesting
all depends on who the “prospect” is. Also, I also hope they keep Morrow as a starter, or it’s a poor trade for the Jays. Seattle rushed Morrow to the majors not because he was ready, but because it’s their organizational philosophy to do so. But he really needs work and I’ll feel a lot better about him coming to Toronto if Arnsberg was still here, not that Arnie was a miracle worker, but he did have a nice track record of success.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
i’m a little disapppointed that the jays aren’t going to let wallace try and stick at third. they’ve obviously spent quite a bit of time scouting him but that isn’t the same as being able to constantly watch him in your own farm system. seems like it would make some sense to watch him at third where his value is higher then switch him if it isn’t working.
i do like a potential lineup of hill, lind, wallace and snider in 2-5 but, that being said, i don’t think there are many teams with defensive outfields as bad as CF wells, RF snider and LF lind.
with this group of jays (next 3 or 4 years) doesn’t it seem alot more likely lind stays at DH and snider in LF. so it could be a lineup of hill, lind, wallace and snider but when you figure that those will be the 2B, DH, 1B and LF spots it doesn’t look nearly as impressive.
Does look impressive if...
Wells start`s hitting again…
2B – Hill
DH -Lind
LF – Snider
CF – Wells
1B – Wallace
3B – EE
That`s quite a 2 – 7… Add in our Catcher and SS at the bottom and we could find a decent RF with speed and hitting for average at the 1 spot…
Nice but..
If you expect Cito to put Snider in the cleanup spot you’re in for a major disappointment.
Why do we do this to ourselves?
the Jays organization seems to really value defense
they don’t seem to want to keep people at positions they don’t project to handle in the majors defensively, even if their bat doesn’t particularly play at the new position. The thinking for Wallace might be that his bat is almost ready for the majors so the sooner he learns to play first base, the sooner he can make it to the big show. It would be a shame if he had an mlb ready bat that was held back because he was trying to learn first base, after the team kept him at third basically knowing he wasn’t going to stick there.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
i very much agree with this. i’m a big fan of plus defenders and would rather have wallace as a plus glove at first than as an error machine at third. i’d also like to see him in the lineup sooner rather than later.
i guess my first post was looking at it from the point of view that if the jays are really going to compete in this division they’re going to need some home grown above average offensive talent at some of the positions that are more difficult to fill. with wallace moved to first they dont seem to have anyone to move into the 3B or the CF spot in the near future that will be able to do that.
(i say CF hoping that AA is going to do wells a favour and move him to RF very soon where his d and his bat might look pretty good. i’m just new here but i feel like that is a discussion that has probably happened once or twice before so i won’t say anymore about it)
I think Wallace wouldn't be an errors machine at 3rd
i think he is supposed to have a good arm and glove… hes just too slow to reach a lot of balls that more athletic guys would be able to stop…
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