AL East Positional Face-Off – Shortstop
by bunner on Feb 23, 2009 11:16 AM EST
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PrintSS is one of the weaker offensive positions in the league and the AL East is no difference they boast one legitimate offensive SS in Jeter, one up and comer with some offensive talent in Lowrie and 2 guys that are relied upon for their speed and defense in Izturis and Bartlett and finally Scutaro who is at best an average all around player.
1. Derek Jeter (NYY)
Jeter has seen his stats decline over the last few years however he is still the best and most consistent offensive option at SS in the AL East. His defence is over-rated by some but he is solid in the field and should put up 10-15 HR and SB with a .300+ average.
2. Jason Bartlett (TB)
Some considered him to be the key to TB success in 2008. For TB to succeed again in 2009 they will count on Bartlett’s defensive ability up the middle and will reap the benefits of his 20+ SB and average in the .280s, you can’t ask for too much more out of a bottom of the order hitter. TB does have two top SS prospects in Reid Brignac (who is close to being ready) and Tim Beckham (who was the top pick in the 2008 draft) both of whom have much greater offensive upside then Bartlett.
3. Jed Lowrie (BOS)
Assuming Lowrie is the starting SS in Boston to begin the season he has the ability to produce at the same (or similar level) to fellow middle infielder in Boston Dustin Pedrioa. Lowrie currently sports a good eye at the plate and extra-base power which could develop into more HR power in the future. Lowrie could easily move up to #2 on this list and eventually be #1 if Jeter continues to decline. If Lowrie struggles mightily in Spring Training then Julio Lugo is the other option in Boston and he could have some upside if he could return to the form he showed in TB a few years back.
4. Marco Scutaro (TOR)
Scutaro doesn’t offer much power or speed, he won’t have a .300 average either. He does however offer about 5-10 HR, 5-10 SB, a .260-.270 average and pretty good defence, a team could do worse. The issue us Jays fans have is using him as a leadoff hitter, Scutaro fits much better as a #8-9 hitter in the batting order.
5. Cesar Izturis (BAL)
Former Blue Jay Cesar Izturis is known as a defensive wizard and he offers up about 20+ SB but that’s about it. He won’t hit for a high average and he’d be lucky to hit 1 HR but his defensive abilities will keep him in the everyday lineup in Baltimore.
The tally so far:
New York: 22
Tampa Bay: 15
Boston: 14
Baltimore: 14:
Toronto: 10
Up next LF…
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Most of the projection systems have Scutaro and Barlett being identical offensively
Only Bill James gives them more than .001 difference in wOBA. Bartlett’s UZR has worsened every year in his career. For them to be that far apart in value, you must be projecting a pretty huge falloff in Scutaro’s defense.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
I think the top four are fairly even....
Jeter likely is the top but his defense is at the bottom of the list, his offense is falling off. The problem is there is only a little difference between some of the players and yet there is always a 1-5 ranking.
that,
or maybe Scutaro, Lowrie, and Bartlett are all very close in value. Bartlett offers a little more speed and has a better defensive track record, but I don’t see much difference in value between he and Scutaro at all. I’d much rather have Lowrie than either and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lowrie outperformed Jeter on both sides of the ball this season if given an everyday job. Jeter was a 3.7 win player last season, Lowrie was a 1.9 win player in just 300 PAs, Scutaro was a 2.8 win player in twice as many plate appearances as Lowrie, while Bartlett was a 1.9 win player, but as an everyday player. Heck, Izturis was a 1.7 win player. I’d rank them in that order, Jeter-Lowrie-Scutaro-Bartlett-Izturis, but really there are tiers rather than clear ranks, Jeter and Lowrie, Scoot and Bartlett, and then Izturis.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Well...
I took into account that Bartlett was considered a difference maker by his team mates and managers into putting him 2nd…and that he has proven a little more in the majors then Lowrie. I also think that Lowrie could easily be #1 on this this list at the end of the season but because he’s not guaranteed a job he fell down behind Bartlett.
I’m not at all sold on Scutaro as an everyday SS. He has never been one in his career and he’s not young so there is little chance of a ‘break out’ year offensively. If Cito has already said he’ll lose time to Johnny Mac he obviously isn’t sold on Scutaro’s defence either.
Well if you move Barrett up because his manager batted him second.....
why isn’t Scoot up top because his manager put him in the leadoff spot? The team said nice things about Scutaro and some writers (tho I didn’t agree at all) called Marco the team MVP. Don’t mean to rag on you about it…..to me they could be 1. Jeter 2. Scutaro, Barrett and Lowrie 5.Izturis
I think bunner meant
he took into account the Rays’ high opinion of Bartlett in ranking him 2nd in this list, not that he attached some special significance to the Rays batting Bartlett second in the order (actually I think he batted 9th, didn’t he?) UZR certainly didn’t think Bartlett was anything special, though, and with his offense, he has to be. Same with Scoot, and doubly with Izturis. Jeter is sort of the opposite, he has to keep his fielding above water since his hitting is still good but no longer exceptional, while Lowrie has lots of potential to be an above-average regular but hasn’t proven anything yet.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
had nothing
to do with where these guys bat in the order…Bartlett I think is a #8 or 9 hitter for TB…Scutaro may be penciled in to bat leadoff but he belongs at #8 or 9
There seems...
to be too much love for Scutaro around here. Sure he played strong D at SS but he’s old and has never been a starting SS in his ML career. Odds are his defensive stats come down to earth a bit this season while his offensive stats remain at his career norm.
I think Bartlett and Lowrie ahead of Scutaro is a no brainer…Bartlett is younger, faster and better defensively…Lowrie is younger has a MUCH better bat and likely can match Scutaro defensively and has loads of more potential…
well....comparing the two....
Scutaro had OPS+ of 95,89, 87. Bartlett has been 99, 88, 82. The line about never being a starting SS before…..Bartlett has only been a major league starting SS the last two seasons. Speed, yeah Jason stole 20 bases but was caught 6 times. Scutaro 7 steals, 2 caught. But if then Marco hit 7 homers, not a lot but 7 times better than Bartlett’s 1. I’d rather have the 6 extra homers than the 13 extra steals. Bartlett’s defense, to me is over rated, he’s good, not terrific. Scutaro is good too.
With this rating system giving Bartlett 4 points while Scutaro 2….you really think he’s twice as good as Scutaro?
I’d take Lowrie before both of them if I had to choose but last season Scutaro was the best of the three.
i'm not sold on lowrie yet.
not to say he isn’t going to be good, but having “the ability to produce at the same (or similar level) to fellow middle infielder in Boston Dustin Pedrioa” is a kind of a tall order.
Lowrie’s minor league career (about 1500 PA): .381/.446, 25 hr, 15 sb (11cs)
Pedroia last year (about 700 PA): .376/.493, 17 hr, 20 sb (1cs)
To be perfectly honest, I don’t know much about Lowrie’s defense and playing short gives him inherently more value, but if I were a red sock fan, I would not count any chickens before they hatched.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
though, to be fair,
I do expect a regression of some sort from Dustin Luis
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
Scutaro and Izturis...
are interchangeable, neither are that great but o a good job and serve their purpose. No matter what Izturis does he’s automatically better then last year because i believe we used 9 different people at short (i may be wrong on the exact number, but it’s something close to that), so that fact we have someone there everyday is an automatic upgrade. he doens’t need to knock the cover off the ball, just be solid up the middle with roberts on the other side of the bag.
just because the
O’s had an absolute black hole at SS last season doesn’t mean that Izturis is as good as Scutaro. Scutaro was over a full win better last season and has a singificant advantage at the plate (.311 wOBA for Scutaro v. .277 for Izturis) over his career. Izturis may well be an upgrade over what you had, and I think he’ll be fine for the O’s as long as his fielding continues to be excellent, but I know which I’d rather have on my team.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
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