Matty Gaul's 2009 Projected Lineup

by Matty Gaul on Feb 4, 2009 10:18 AM EST in Analysis Comment 9 comments

After missing all that time earlier in 2008, I just can't stay away from the blog. Here is my prediction for the 2009 Starting Lineup with a small prediction for what:

1) Aaron Hill, Second Base
Hill is looking for a bounce-back season after his post-concussion syndrome ended his 2008 season very early. Look for him to play at almost 100% of what we expect of him. Hill will have less errors in 2009 then what most people expect him to have after last years incident.

2) Travis Snider, Left Field
Snider was a great addition to the club in the games he played in September last year. Snider will struggle early on in the season, but I can see him fiishing with a very respectable .285 average in his rookie season.

3) Alex Rios, Right Field
2008 was a bit of a down year for Rios in 2008. He needs to hit more homeruns if the Jays are going to compete this year. Mark him down for 28 homers in 2009.

4) Vernon Wells, Center Field
Another key component in the Jays hopes for success had a rough season last year. He's another guy we need to hit more homeruns, and knock in those crucial runners in scoring position. 115 RBI for Wells in 2009.

5) Adam Lind, Designated Hitter
I see Lind as a guy who can hit 19 homeruns in 2009. Although that's not really what you expect of your DH, it should still do the job.

6) Scott Rolen, Third Base
I thought last year was a solid year for Rolen at the hot corner. In a division that is loaded with homerun hitting Third Basemen (Rodriguez, Longoria, Lowell), the Jays need Rolen to start putting the ball into the bleachers. 24 HR from Rolen in 2009.

7) Lyle Overbay, First Base
The King Of Doubles, baby! Overbay is always good for a clutch double late in the innings. He's also a very effecient First Basemen. Expect Overbay to be up near 44 doubles in 2009.

8) Rod Barajas, Catcher
When Cito Gaston stepped in as Manager for the Jays, Barajas was his catcher, replacing Gregg Zaun. I personally like Barajas as a defensive catcher. In 2009, he will help our inexperienced pitchers adapt to big-league hitters, as well as limit his pass-balls.

9) Marco Scutaro, Shortstop
Rounding out the lineup, Marco Scutaro comes in and provides the defensive assurance we need at Shortstop. Scutaro will hit .268 in the 2009 season.

NOTES:

Lind and Snider are pretty much interchangeable in their positions (DH and LF), as well as the batting order.
The only thing that I don't like about my lineup is the lack of speed/base-stealing threat at the top of the order. Do you guys have any suggestions?

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Suggestion...

Jays should have signed Furcal to solve your problem of speed at the top of the lineup and my problem of Marco Scutaro :)

by bunner on Feb 4, 2009 10:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was interested in Furcal too

I thought Hill showed quite a bit of promise earlier in his career that he would develop into a top-of-the order hitter. OBP’s over .340 for a 22-year old rookie still developing as a hitter is a pretty good sign. However, though the jury isn’t out on this, he seems to have developed in the other direction – in his best offensive season, he only got on base 33% of the time, not ideal for a leadoff hitter (though I’d stil rather have Hill at the top of the order than Scutaro)

I would like to bat him at the top of the order (1st or 2nd) against lefties to start and see how he does in terms of approach at the plate. We had a lineup thread a few weeks ago and I had proposed batting Overbay first against righties and Rolen and Hill 1st and 2nd against lefties (don’t really care too much about which is which. I still would take that approach, I think, at least at first.

With respect to speed at the top of the order, I really like speed as an additional weapon for an offensive player to have, but I’m not a fan of structuring your lineup around it by insisting on putting your fastest guys at the top of the order. The Jays don’t have an ideal leadoff hitter, so Hill’s lack of speed wouldn’t stop me from batting him first, but I also don’t think he’s shown the on-base ability recently to just throw him in at the top of the lineup every day.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Feb 4, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You hit on a question I've always wondered about.....

Why are base stealers put at the top of the order. If I am the leadoff hitter, I’ve got the power and best hitters on the team batting behind me, so you would imagine a stolen base has less value from that spot, while a caught stealing would be more costly. Chances of a homer or a rally are higher than any other spot in the order.

But if I put the base stealer in the 6th slot, there is less power directly behind him in the order, so it is less likely that there would be a rally behind me or a homer. So a steal in that spot would make it so a single from one of the next three guys would score a run.

I’d guess the only real reason base stealers are put at the top of the order is tradition.

by Tom Dakers on Feb 4, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs