Baseball Prospectus Top 11 Jay's Prospects

by Tom Dakers on Mar 12, 2009 10:34 PM EDT in Toronto Blue Jays News

The folks at BP (no not British Petroleum) have posted their Top 11 Jay Prospects list (yeah for most of it you need a subscription). Not too many surprises:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Travis Snider, LF
2. J.P. Arencibia, C
Four-Star Prospects
3. David Cooper 1B
4. Brett Cecil LHP
Three-Star Prospects
5. Justin Jackson, SS
6. Brad Mills, LHP
7. Brad Emaus, 2B
8. Ricky Romero, LHP
9. Mark Rzepczynski, LHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Scott Campbell, 2B
11. Tom Collins, LHP

Just Missed: Carlos Perez, C; Kevin Ahrens, 3B; Kenny Wilson, CF

Not that much different from our top 11, Ahrens is 6th on our list, Emaus is 18th on our list, but looks like he should be moving up with a nice spring, Tom Collins is 16th on our list and we have John Tolisano 10 on our list. The totally new name for us is Carlos Perez an 18 year old catcher that played in the Dominican Summer league last year. He won the Jays MVP award for that level last year. Very early to consider him a prospect, but can hope.

Among the nuggets of information:

Snider is a 'massive physical presence, almost built like a cube'....are they calling him fat? 'May have to move to first base'.

JP Arencibia: "a rarity as a catcher who is often described as athletic and toolsy. He has excellent hitting fundamentals with easy plus power".

Justin Jackson: "He has an advanced feel for the strike zone and solid gap power, as well as a tick above-average speed. He has outstanding moves at shortstop with fantastic instincts and plus range, and a strong, accurate throwing arm."

Brad Mills: "He is the consummate pitcher who gets by without top-of-the-line stuff by hitting his spots and keeping hitters off balance." Sounds like Jimmy Key, doesn't he.

Brad Emaus: "Emaus just plays the game right."

Scott Campbell: "is one of the best pure hitters in the system, with a good approach, a quick bat, and excellent plate coverage. He's walked more than he's struck out at every level as a pro, and he has gap power and plays a fundamentally sound second base."

Tim Collins: "His listed height of 5-foot-7 is generous, and his weight only passed the 150-pound mark when a conditioning program (more like simply eating) put an additional 15 pounds on his skinny frame, with one scout noting, "the first time I saw him take the mound, I was wondering why the batboy was warming up."

Anyway it sounds like we have some good players moving up and some we should see soon.

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50% right on the Five star guys...

BP is right on Snider. Snider – IM(H)O – is almost an Albert Puljos except for the walks. As a 21 year old Albert, in 590 at bats, hit – 329/403/610 with 37 homers. Travis has a chance to hit 320/375/600 with 40 homers in 590 at bats also in his age 21 year. Travis could be a once in a generation type stud.

JP is a LOW 4. He won’t hit for average or get on base – BUT – he’ll hit 30+ homers in 400+ at bats and could get 80+ rbi all while playing slightly above league average defense – not God/Budda/ or the Flying Spaghetti Monster – BUT – not chopped liver either..

Also Cecil (Cecil is like Purcey but with control and no ADD medicine) and Mills (CLEARLY a Jimmy Key or Ted Lilly clone) are 4’s and Jackson (A Fernandez defensively with a bat that could be similar to Alomar IF the stars align just a bit) is as close to a 4 as you can get without actually making it there.

Dropping down to 3’s are: Cooper (average power at BEST – more likely below average power, only defensive position is DH where his sub-par power will not play) and Rzepczynski (this guy COULD be a DARK HORSE – he is very good now BUT by the end of 09 there is a chance he could greatly improve his place).

The rest are 2’s. Emaus and Campbell are SLIGHTLY better offensively than Hill but just marginal – at best – at 2nd. Neither have ehough POWER to play a corner outfield or infield position. However – BOTH could be Super Utility guys. Romero is just not quite ready for prime time and not likely to ever be – sigh. Collins is GOD of short people – but chicks like dudes they don’t have to help climb out of a sports car.

HOWEVER – the REAL missing STARS in the making are Thames (09 will be his first year with us), Loewen (was a MASHER before he was a pitcher and is only 24 now) and Bush (throws 96 -98 and has a killer slider – at WORSE this guy is a closer on a championship level club within two years if he doesn’t end up in the slammer for murder or whatever..

Personally – I haven’t seen this much quality and depth in the Jays system since the Delgado/Green/Gonzalas era. In fact I think today’s is better than that group and their contemporaries were.

by Mylegacy on Mar 13, 2009 2:04 AM EDT reply actions

Could be right....

I think Snider will have to take some walks to become the 30 home run guy we are hoping for and I think Arencibia will end up decent defensively and likely be a .270 type hitter at some point.

I think Cooper will surprise you, give him another year to get used to wooden bats, he is just a year out of college. I think he’ll end up in the 25 home run range and give him a year to work on his defense at first base. He’ll be ok.

Loewen…..well he’ll have to prove himself before I’d put him on a prospects list, he’s hitting like .170 this spring, and mostly batting against the non-prospects at the end of the games, small sample size. I’d take the ‘only’ alway before the 24, he’s 24 and he is at least 2 years from the majors, if all goes well. He’s a fun story but when someone projects to have his ‘rookie’ batting season at 26 the ceiling isn’t all that high.

Bush, I’d rather not buy into the hype from the hitting coach or other players, let’s see how he does against batters and let’s see if he can stay sober for a week or two. He may have a $10,000,000 arm but if he has a $5 head it won’t matter. Add in age worries, he’s 23 and will be at A ball this year.

by Tom Dakers on Mar 13, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions