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Every Day is Like Sunday: The Pitching Wheel Turns

Hi all, back in town.  Fun wedding, good to be back.  

Brett Cecil pitches today for the Jays and because his first start was a weekday afternoon game not widely televised, it'll be the first chance that many of us will have to see him pitch for the Jays.  Very exciting.  Today's game gives the Jays a chance to go either 2-3 or 3-2 on their west coast swing - neither would be too bad but the latter sounds a lot better to me. 

So, Jeremy Accardo seems ready to step back in for the big club.  Accardo has been closing for the 51s and has done an admirable job, with a 1.32 ERA over 13 2/3 innings.  Pretty impressive for the PCL.  He has 11 Ks in those 13 2/3 innings, although he has walked 6.  Lately he has really been piling up the Ks, and he's also doing a good job inducing grounders.  Accardo would be useful to the Jays pen because he has good stuff, throws hard, and is very effective against both lefties and righties (actually this season he has been very good against righties but has utterly dominated lefties).  With B.J. Ryan still out, Scott Downs moved into the closer role, Brian Tallet starting, and the Jays' bullpen experiencing a couple of problems recently, the Jays could really use a late-inning reliever who can get tough lefties out.  Bill Murphy has done absolutely nothing to lose his job, but he has generally gone in low-leverage situations and I'd say it's time to get Accardo back with the big team.  If the Jays don't want to demote Murphy when he's pitching well, I'd also prefer Accardo over Shawn Camp, who has given up runs in 3 of his last 4 appearances and has a 7/7 K/BB ratio and 1.64 Whip this season.  Camp isn't bad as the last man out of the pen, but he's a little overstretched as a late-inning reliever and has a poor record against lefties. Time for a change, I think. 

In the other category, David Purcey has not pitched well for Las Vegas.  Most recently, Purcey had a disastrous start for Las Vegas, giving up 8 hits and 3 walks in 2 1/3 innings en route to 8 runs.  Purcey threw only about half of his pitches for strikes and with starts like that, I'm glad we demoted him when we did.  Purcey has walked more batters than he has struck out for Las Vegas, and he'll never get back to the bigs that way.  My guess is that Purcey just needs to put together 2 decent starts in a row and the Jays will bring him back, but it doesn't seem as though he's ready to do so right now. 

Although Ricky Romero had a rough outing for Dunedin, I'm not concerned about him.  Romero gave up 6 runs over 4 innings, including 2 home runs.  However, he did strike out 5 and walk just 1 and was probably just a bit rusty after a few weeks on the shelf.  As for Casey Janssen, he's really looked sharp - he now has given up just 1 run in 12 innings, with 9 strikeouts and just 2 walks (including 5 Ks and no walks over his last, 5 inning, start) and tonnes of groundouts.  I'd say he's ready to go, though I wouldn't mind him getting one rehab start in at New Hampshire first.  Janssen could help out in either the bullpen or the starting rotation, though I've made no secret of my preference for having him in the starting rotation, as long as his arm can handle it. 

As for B.J. Ryan, if you weren't wearing your contacts you might've thought that it was him on the mound for the Jays yesterday, but no.  Ryan blanked the opposition for his first outing with Dunedin, but gave up a run his last time out.  Ryan got the first batter to pop out, then walked the next.  A double and a sacrifice fly plated the run.

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Can someone explain

why the PCL is such a batter-friendly league? Are the parks particularly small? Are they all at Coors-esque altitudes so the balls just fly? Shouldn’t a legitimate big-league pitcher be able to dominate minor league hitters regardless of league?

And regarding the rotation, we have to figure that Romero and Janssen replace Cecil and Ray in the rotation, and then Listch bumps Tallet when he comes back, right? I actually wouldn’t mind sticking Janssen in the pen to start if Tallet continues to pitch well as a starter just to give him a few appearances to get into things, but putting Tallet back in relief and having Janssen starts probably works just as well.

by SuckaMD on May 10, 2009 9:42 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

great question

I will use Las Vegas as a good example: the lines are 328’ and 323’ at left and right, and center field is a ridiculous 433 ft. That means that the park is both conducive to home runs and extra base hits to the outfield (because it is an expansive outfield with lots of room). Couple that with dry desert air, in which baseballs travel further, and you’ve got a recipe for a tough park to pitch in. You have to hope that, given that situation, pitchers will attack the zone and not be afraid for batters to make contact, so I agree with you that a legitimate big league pitcher should be posting solid K/BB numbers regardless of the league.

I think you’re right about Cecil and Ray going down first, with Ray likely being the first to go back down. As for Tallet, he’s been great, so I think Cito is going to be reluctant to send him back to the bullpen unless everyone else is pitching really well. Litsch sounds like he’ll be far enough so that the Jays can see how Janssen, Tallet, Romero, and Richmond are pitching and make the decision from there. I doubt anything they’ve made that decision for sure. Cecil could also force the Jays’ hand if he keeps pitching well – it’s hard to send your top pitching prospect back to the minors when he’s doing well in the majors. Either way, it looks like the Jays’ rotation will be getting reinforcements soon, but what’s interesting is how well they’ve been doing.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 10, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Starting Pitcher Tiers

I think I would classify Jays starting pitching by the following tiers:

TOP TIER
Halladay
Richmond
Tallet
Cecil (a little green, but still very effective)
Janssen (success in minors bodes well)

SECOND TIER
Romero (looked great early, but his slow start in minors raises questions)
Ray (looks good so far, but he might still need a little ripening in the minors)
Litsch (struggled in big league starts this season and injury creates more uncertainty)

THIRD TIER
Purcey (has some very effective pitches, but he needs to improve accuracy and lower his ball to strike mix from 50/50 to 60-70/30-40 — this is a 20% to 40% improvement … so, I am thinking he will need coaching and a full season in minors to improve accuracy that much)

by aagoodfella on May 10, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I tend to disagree

Romero has looked nothing but excellent this year through the spring and in his first several starts. I don’t see any reason to doubt that will continue at this point. I also think Litsch has shown himself to be a very effective starter over the past two seasons, certainly he’s more proven as a starter than Tallet, Cecil and probably Janssen (given that he is coming off a torn labrum, a notoriously difficult injury to recover from).

I also don’t think Purcey will necessarily need a full season in the minors, but he’s not coming up to the big club any time soon.

All in all, I think the Jays rotation looks pretty good going forward, even if it is somewhat piecemeal. And bumping a few guys out of the rotation should strengthen an already very good bullpen.

by SuckaMD on May 10, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree but disagree

I agree that Romero’s big league record this year has been just awesome. However, it is difficult to assess how much he has been affected by his injury. Given his weak showing in minors, things could be worse than expected. I see no reason to bring him back up quickly given the alternatives available to the Jays.

Tallet is getting more and more comfortable in the starting role so why mess with a good thing? Leave him in I say.

To me Litsch remains a question mark. Last year he started off great, than had to be sent down to minors and came back, more effective but not as strong as his hot start. This year, he got hit quite badly at the majors. So, there remain questions IMHO. At best, he should not be rushed back either.

I certainly hope you are right about Purcey. I do agree that the rotation looks good. Hopefully these young guys are gaining knowledge working near Halladay … although he is reputedly tough to be around on game day … LOL. Focus is good though.

by aagoodfella on May 10, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The problem with Camp

might be his contract situation. He was awarded 700k before going into arbitration correct?

He might not be allowed to be sent down unless they buy him out. He definitely hasn’t been great but I think not bad enough to simply waive/buy him out. Murphy is probably the only option – we’d end up with our ideal pen anyway with Wolfe/Accardo back up.

AWmusic - mp3 blog on independent music..

by achengy on May 10, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

doesn't look like he has any options left

so he would have to clear waivers to be sent down. Gotta figure someone would snap him up off the wire, he’s a reasonably effective reliever

by SuckaMD on May 10, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade bait?

The Jays could use an extra catcher. No clue when Barrett will be back, and rushing kids up to the majors would not be a good idea. Another catcher like Chavez who can be stashed in Las Vegas would be useful.

by PFHLai on May 11, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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