The Looser the Waistband, the Deeper the Quicksand (Or So I Have Read): Next Series Pitchers Preview
by jessef on May 11, 2009 11:13 PM EDT
in Upcoming Series Preview
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After a much-needed day of rest today, the Blue Jays host the Yankees in a three-game series 12-14 May that lets us get our first taste of action with a division rival with a more recent winning season than 1997. The series opens Tuesday night when A.J. Burnett takes the Rogers Centre mound as a Yankee for the first time against his old mentor, Roy Halladay. It continues on Wednesday night at 7 pm EDT when Andy Pettitte pitches for the Yankees and Scott Richmond goes for our Jays and concludes Thursday at the same time with CC Sabathia making the start against fellow southpaw Brian Tallet. All three of the opposition's starters inked contracts with the Yankees in the offseason and the three will be paid a total of $45M US for 2009's season alone. It would be really nice to see the Jays sweep this one. Since we all know about these guys already, I'll just quickly go through how they're doing thusfar this season.
12 May
A.J. Burnett
Burnett (2-0, 5.26, 1.327 WHIP) is following up his "career year" last season (Burnett's 2008: 4.07 ERA, 1.342 WHIP; Burnett's Career: 3.85 ERA, 1.285 WHIP) in much the same way that he produced it, except that his strikeout-rate has declined from an AL-leading 9.4 K/9 to a still-good 7.9 K/9. His overall ERA looks a lot worse than it should, due to his being left in way too long against the Red Sox in a game at Fenway on 25 April. Similar to what we saw last year, Burnett just has not played up to his peripherals. In his previous starts this season, he has PQSed 3, 5, 2, 1, 4 and 5 for a mean PQS of 3 1/3, which puts him in the quality start range, and a Dominance-Rate of 50% and Disaster-Rate of 17%. There have been two games where he really has not had it (the start in Boston and his previous start against Cleveland), but when he has been on, he's been tough to hit (4 starts, 26 1/3 IP, 28 K, 5 BB, 24 H, 2 HR).
I have no real personal dislike of A.J., but I will be rooting against his uniform tomorrow night. I don't really see how anyone can blame Burnett for opting out of his contract last season. If it had been a team option and Burnett had been ineffective or hurt, the team wouldn't have picked it up, so I have no hard feelings for him, but I do wish that he had not ended up on the Yankees both because I don't like having to face him and it is incredibly annoying that the Jays get the Yankees third round pick when they would have had a first with almost any other team.
13 May
Andy Pettitte
Pettitte (2-1, 4.38, 1.359 WHIP) is one of the few Yankees I never minded much until his response to the Mitchell Report, which I just did not think was an actual apology. No one says that he has to be sorry for what he's done, I just don't get why they release apologetic statements that aren't actually apologetic. I'm not forgiving you for something when you aren't sorry that you did it. So far this season, Pettitte's been giving the Yankees what they expected, pitching six innings each start but one (in which he went 5 2/3) and PQSing 5, 4, 3, 4, 1 and 3, the same mean PQS (3 1/3) as Burnett and the same Dominance- and Disaster-Rates, but Pettitte on his best day is a far cry from Burnett at the top of his game. Pettitte is coming off two mediocre starts in a row (total of 11 2/3 IP, 7 K, 5 BB, 18 H, 10 ER, 4 HR), so hopefully the Jays can tag him as well.
14 May
CC Sabathia
Sabathia (2-3, 3.94, 1.229 WHIP) did not get off to the greatest start in 2009. Prior to shutting out the Orioles last week, Sabathia was 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA and just 24 strikeouts over 39 innings. He has been coming on strongly of late, though -- in his last three starts he has struck out 20 and walked just two over 23 2/3 innings. Overall, he's PQSed 0, 5, 3, 3, 5, 4 and 5, a mean PQS of 3.57 and a Dominance-rate of 57% with a Disaster-rate of 14%. Hopefully things will begin to unravel for the pitcher with the prodigious waistline, the impetus of the post-title, on Thursday.
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Welcome Back AJ
AJ is a good pitcher. It would have been nice to keep him around, but on a cost – benefit basis, it did not really make sense. Still, he did a good job for the Jays when he was here. Hopefully fans give him a polite hand to welcome him back and than boo the heck out of him for rest of game. LOL. AJ is good but can be hittable early. It would be great if the Jays can take advantage of that in innings 1 and maybe 2 to get a lead.
I am hoping the Jays give Petite a real good pounding. I think this game is the best op to light up the scoreboard.
Who knows which Sabathia will show up? If if is the sharp one Sabathia, this could be the toughest game for the Jays.
by aagoodfella on May 11, 2009 11:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Personally I am having a hard time thinking of something good to say about AJ
That being said, I like when he hugged the starting pitchers when they got removed from the game!
I think the key to beating AJ (as we all know) is when we have him on the ropes, we HAVE TO step on his throat. With AJ, when it goes bad, it goes really bad. If we let him off the hook, he can get comfortable, and thats when he gets dominant.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on May 12, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The really good news is that....
once Jessef writes one of these, one of the opposing pitchers involved gets hurt or gets sent down or something. We really should have a poll on which guy gets the Jessef curse this time.
by Tom Dakers on May 11, 2009 11:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Odds
say it’s Burnett (pitch counts this year and last). How’s the curse going so far? I haven’t really noticed.
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by achengy on May 12, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just it seems after Jesse writes the preview
Some opposing pitcher has to come out of the rotation for some reason. Unfortunately it might not happen this time around. They really are great previews, I look forward to reading them at the start of each series.
by Tom Dakers on May 12, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A.J.
Now as a person, I have nothing against him, but the fact is, he’s a stunningly mediocre pitcher who occassionally puts out dominant performances. He’s a casual fan’s dream – can throw high-90’s, wicked movement and all-around dominant stuff. But he’ll just never put it together, unfortunately for him. Career ERA+: 110. Last year’s, the “career year”: 105. Last year we had 4 SPs with better ERA+s: Halladay (of course), Litsch, Marcum and Richmond. Frankly, while he would undoubtedly be our #2 starter, his effectiveness this season (89 ERA+) would make him only the sixth-best starter, after Cecil (ridiculous 716 ERA+ in two starts), Romero, Richmond, Halladay and Tallet.
That said, let’s prove the numbers right and beat up on him. I will be at the game, and will be booing for no reason other than that he’s a Yank.
by boo15749 on May 12, 2009 12:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree with you
Though I wouldn’t call an ERA+ of 110 stunningly mediocre. I wouldn’t really say you can count Richmond as having a better ERA+ last season that AJ, either. AJ made, I think, 34 starts and Richmond only made like five. As Jays fans we are spoiled by getting to see the best pitcher in baseball getting paid the 11th highest salary amongst starters and 12th amongst all pitchers.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
by jessef on May 12, 2009 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with both of you
“stunningly mediocre” is probably a bit too harsh for an ERA+ of 110, but I always found AJ maddening to watch. He probably has the most electric arm and best stuff in a non-roided Jays pitcher that I have seen in my lifetime (aka other than Clemens) But he walks too many batters and seems to think that he can get major league hitters out simply by dialing his fastball up to 100 mph and throwing it over the heart of the plate (here’s a hint: you can’t). All this adds up to a guy who makes all the higlight reels, racks up occassional incredibly-dominant starts, K’s tons of batter and winds up with only-a-bit-better-than-league-average production. He’s fun to watch once in a while, but following him over several seasons made me reconsider his supposed greatness.
As others have said, let’s give AJ a nice hand at the beginning to acknowledge his service to the team, then cheer twice as loud when we knock him around all game.
by SuckaMD on May 12, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I meant was
Precisely that: taking out his dominant highlight-reel stuff, I assumed his ERA+ would be hovering around 100… which is about as mediocre as you can get, no?
by boo15749 on May 12, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can never go wrong booing the Yankees ...
… or the BoSox or the Rays ….
against the Os, you can save your breath … LOL … or just chant Melllll- vin, Mellllll- vin … poor guy, I feel bad for him every time he comes to TO
by aagoodfella on May 12, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
3rd Round Pick?
Jessef could you explain why the rules are different for the Yanks? Thanks!
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by Humble Dragons on May 12, 2009 10:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Free agents are ranked according to a "secret" formula known only to Elias Sports Bureau
and the outsider who reverse engineered it. If a team signs multiple Type A free agents, the higher draft pick goes to the team that lost the higher ranked player.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
by Torgen on May 12, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And since Teix and CC signed there, the Brewers and the Angels got the higher picks.
I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people all day long and I assume they deserve it. - Dogbert
by JohnnyG on May 12, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s worth pointing out that after losing the pitcher who almost single-handedly took us to the playoffs in one of the most dominant half-seasons ever, we (the Brewers) still only got the Yankee’s second-round pick. Damn Yankees.
by theBrouhaha on May 12, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
This is another failure by MLB. If anything, signing multiple Type A free agents should come with an extra penalty (though I guess some would say that is what the Luxury Tax is for) for teams.
In the case of the Brewers and Jays, they could eliminate the Yankees 2nd and 3rd Round picks from the draft and compensate the Brewers and Jays with two sandwich picks each (instead of 1 + 2nd Round and 1 + 3rd round, respectively) or delay the draft pick compensation until the following year?
If the Yankees had signed three Type A free agents in three different seasons, they’d lose three first rounders, so if the first option is not harsh enough on them, why not take away their first rounders for the next three years?
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
by jessef on May 12, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
It’s not any team got the shaft worse, but that both our teams did not receive the compensation we should have, while the Yankees essentially got a bonus for signing all of the Type A agents in the same year.
by theBrouhaha on May 12, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
although the formula itself is “secret,” as Torgen says, Elias has come out and stated that the ranking is based on performance over the past two seasons only. That, and the fact that there is an adjustment for time spent on the disabled list (also in the last two seasons), is about all anyone knows for sure about the rankings.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 12, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
by the way
I saw a video of Spinal Tap at Wembley (I think) and they had about 20 people onstage all playing bass for this song. it was awesome!
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 12, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was worried that the title could be construed as inappropriate.
Didn’t want to violate any Terms of Use, but just thought it was too funny to pass up.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
by jessef on May 12, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll gladly back you up
against anyone who would punish you for referring to the mighty Tap in a post
by SuckaMD on May 12, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks to you all... I am now... well... smarter
I guess this is why the Yankees never have home grown talent…
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by Humble Dragons on May 12, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
haha
well, they have had some pretty impressive home-grown talent over the years, no doubt…they have also brought in a lot of mediocre overpriced free agents, but have gotten away from that recently. At least CC, AJ, and Teixiera are top talents you can justify giving up picks for.
Thing is, a team like the Yankees, who are willing to go over slot, can afford to give up their first-round picks and still get a first-round talent later on in the draft. There’s a risk that they won’t be able to sign them, most recently with Gerrit Cole, but they get the pick back the following year if that happens. That’s what’s funny, the Yankees will still have a first-round pick in 2009 even after signing 3 of the biggest name free agents in the offseason.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 12, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This may be a little off topic
but it’s one of my (many) baseball-media pet peeves over the past several years, so I’ll see what other people think of it, too (I’m sure it will unleash many anti-me remarks, but what can you do).
For all the rhetoric about the Yankees’ free spending ways and their ability to grab all the prime free agents, when they were winning their championships between 1996 and 2000, their nucleus consisted of mainly homegrown players. Jeter, Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettite, Posada, and Alfonso Soriano were all developed by the Yankees (Soriano is a bit of a special case, signing as a free agent after playing one year in Japan, but at a first year salary of <$630,000/yr, any team could have had him). Yes, they signed free agents to fill out the roster, but the homegrown nucleus remained unchanged.
In contrast, the Red Sox, who liked to play up the “lovable loser”/underdog card (especially in 2004 when they broke “the curse”), had few homegrown stars. None of the starting position players, top 5 starters or top 5 relievers (by IP) started their careers with the Red Sox. Yes, some were acquired via trade (Varitek, Lowe, Pedro in yet another Expos fire sale) but Schilling, Manny, Papi, Foulke, Timlin, and others prominent players were signed as Free Agents. Point is, none of the starters on the 2004 championship team were drafted and/or developed by the club.
Even our beloved Blue Jays won largely on the basis of free agency. Looking at the top 6 or so hitters and starters across 1992 and 1993, only Olerud and Guzman were developed by the Jays. We got Alomar, Carter, Henderson, and Cone via trade but signed guys like Morris, Stewart, White, Molitor, and Winfield via the FA route. We had homegrown guys elsewhere (Henke, Ward, Key), but the WAMCO nucleus and top SPs were brought in from outside, often by luring them with cash.
I do not begrudge teams for signing free agents to round out or even build up a championship roster, though it does piss me off when teams in the East do it and leapfrog the Jays. My point is that we should at least be honest in our criticisms of other teams and acknowledge that teams that we really hate can still do things the right way sometimes. And sometimes that makes us hate them even more.
All of which is to say, Let’s go Jays!!! Kill those Yankees!!!
by SuckaMD on May 12, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
correction (sorry)
Henke was actually drafted by the Rangers and was picked up by the Jays as a “Free Agent compensation pick” (not sure what that is). So he wasn’t actually developed by the Jays either
by SuckaMD on May 12, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Free Agent compensation picks don't happen anymore
but they used to be what you would get if a team signed your free agent. Teams could raid your roster for unprotected players, similar to what happens in the case of expansion drafts.
I forget which year they started to compensate teams with draft picks, but that is why they don’t have teams raid other teams’ rosters anymore.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
by jessef on May 12, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting point
Though the Yankees did bring in a bunch of outside players as well. Tino Martinez was signed as a free agent. Paul O’Neill was brought in via trade. John Wetteland (granted only with the Yankees in 1996) and Scott Brosius were acquired through free agency, I think. I am pretty sure they traded for Chuck Knoblauch (either way he was not a product of their system). Many of their starters were brought in through free agency or trade (Orlando Hernandez, Hideki Irabu, David Wells, David Cone). They were also insanely lucky injury-wise throughout that timespan.
That being said, I do happen to agree with almost all of what you said there, particularly the last line!
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
by jessef on May 12, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I absolutely agree
that the Yankees brought in free agents and traded for players to fill in around their established nucleus to build those teams. But my main point (which I think you got) was that the Yankees are derided (sometimes mercilessly) for “buying championships” or spending profligately such that other teams cannot compete while, in fact, they did far less of that than other franchises who don’t get nearly the same or any criticism (esp. Boston, but also the Jays and others).
I’m really trying to emphasize that people need to examine assumptions and make sure they conform to available facts, and not just jump to attack what seems like an easy target. I think that’s just one more way where thinking about how sports works can influence how you think about other, more important, topics or life in general.
by SuckaMD on May 12, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that tag stuck with the Yankees
because of how extravagantly they started spending, mostly after they won the four series. that was when things really got ridiculous, of course they weren’t buying championships, they were buying playoff appearances (you can’t buy a championship in baseball anyway because there is too much uncertainty in the playoffs) but they weren’t winning it all. They won the same way most teams win – a very good solid core of players along with some crafty acquisitions to fill gaps and some moves that just plain worked out.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on May 12, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
all true points
I just think the Yankees of the late ‘90s get remembered a bit unfairly compared to other teams. But then I remember that it’s the Yankees we’re talking about, so it doesn’t bother me as much.
by SuckaMD on May 12, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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