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Is Marco Scutaro Playing Over His Head? . . . Now Is that (Man)Love That's Making You Think?

Jack Hannahan shows that the folks at Bluebird Banter aren't the only ones who've come down with an acute case of Marco Scutaro-inspired man-love. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

More photos » Ben Margot - AP

Jack Hannahan shows that the folks at Bluebird Banter aren't the only ones who've come down with an acute case of Marco Scutaro-inspired man-love. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

So far this season, Marco Scutaro has been playing an incredible shortstop (.278 / .406 / .444; 17.6 UZR/150 at shortstop).  No one seems to believe that it's possible for him to keep it up, but looking at his batting average on balls in play (.288) it does not really seem all that impossible, though his Line-Drive rate is way down (does this include bunted balls?) from historic norms.  His 17.9% walk-rate does seem like it must come down at some point, but does it really have to?  Early last year, everyone thought his defence would regress, that it was an artifact of small sample size, but both anecdotally and statistically Scutaro was incredible last season and has been so far in 2009.  Is it actually possible that he could hit and field like this for a whole year?

As far as I can tell, three things could have happened since the Jays signed Scutaro for last season.  The first possibility (and the most obvious) is that all we've seen is a very small slice of Scutaro and he will come back down to Earth soon.  This is what everyone seems to believe (though some to a larger extent than others), but it is not the only possibility.  It is also possible that Scutaro has always been this good, but he's been criminally underused his entire career.  The final possibility is that Scutaro was not underused in Oakland, but has actually made himself into a better player since arriving in Toronto.  This seems unlikely, considering he's 33 years old, but is it impossible?

It has been suggested in some circles that Scutaro is generally good for an OPS of about 700 (705 career) but how he has reached that has varied throughout his career.  Outside of 2006, when he OPSed 747, his OPS has been between 690 and 701 each season, despite having OBPs ranging from .297 (2004, his first full season) to .341 (last season).  This doesn't necessarily mean that Scoot has tried to compensate for a loss of power, in fact he may be consciously hitting for less power because he is taking pitches early in counts (he was seeing just 3.6 pitches per plate appearance in 2004 but that number is up to 3.9 so far this season), but that may not be the case either (he only saw 3.6 per plate appearance last year).  Whatever the reason, Scutaro has seemed to be able to produce offensively at a pretty consistent level throughout his career.  So how could he have improved now? 

Well, let me tell you a little story . . .

Back in the '40s there was a player named Eddie Joost, a light-hitting but slick-fielding shortstop who just couldn't seem to hang on.  He had trouble getting along with management in Cincinnati, which didn't help him and then he went to Boston and was converted to a third baseman with the Braves.  By the time he landed in Philadelphia with the A's he was 31 years old and had a career line of .225 / .311 / .301, good for an OPS+ of 74, not exactly your idea of a player with tremendous upside, though as I said earlier, he was a great fielding shortstop and he'd never been afraid to take a walk when it was offered. 

In his first season with the A's, however, he started to look for walks.  He led the league in strikeouts and only batted .206, but he walked 114 times en route to a very respectable .348 OBP and somewhat less-respectable .330 SLG (a 124 isolated power thanks to 13 HR).  He was 11th in AL MVP voting that season.  He got even better the next season, posting a .250 / .393 / .395 line and hitting 16 HR.  In 1949, at 33 years old, he had an incredible season, hitting 23 HR, walking 149 times, good for an OBP of .429 and SLG of .453 (OPS+ of 137).  Over his six full seasons with the A's, the 31 year old shortstop with a 612 career OPS hit .248 / .391 / .407 with 109 dingers.  We're not talking about a guy in a six year period from age 26 - 32, at the close of the 1952 season, he was 36 years old.

Does this seem at all familiar?  Because Scoot started off as a relatively light-hitting middle-infielder who was relegated to a utility role.  Scoot did not walk as much as Joost did early in his career, though he did walk 57 times last year.  Another thing that plays against Scutaro is that Joost's first full season in the majors was at 25, whereas Scoot didn't accrue a 400 plate appearance season until he was 28, so Scutaro's a bit older now than Joost was when he reinvented himself.  Nontheless, while this season is a small sample size, 29 walks in just 166 plate appearances is a basis for comparison so far.

So what we see is that it's happened before.  Could Scoot be a modern-day Eddie Joost?  It certainly isn't likely, but it's possible, right?

Poll
Do you think Marco can keep this up?
Sure, but it won't be easy.
185 votes
No, please stop wasting my time with the Scutaro man-love.
20 votes

205 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 7 comments |

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Great post....

I really think Marco has taken to the leadoff idea, that he is to get onbase and let the others drive him in. I think maybe he’ll walk a little less as the pitchers get used to the idea he takes walk when offered. But when he’s not walking he seems to be hitting the ball hard. So I think things will all work out.

And man, he makes some of the best defensive plays you are going to see as well as being steady, making the plays he should make.

by Tom Dakers on May 12, 2009 5:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

That play he made on Suzuki on Saturday (I think) was incredible. I’m thinking the Jays could do a whole lot worse and should sign him to a 2 year extension now. That way your covered if Jackson happens to regress, and if Jackson (the heir apparent imho) keeps it up, at least you have a stop gap until he is ready.

Go Jays!! Beat Burnette!

We don't devote nearly enough scientific research to finding a cure for jerks. - Calvin

by solace on May 12, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get the line you posted

it’s his 2009 batting average with his career OBP/SLG splits? His line this season is .278/.406/.444

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 12, 2009 6:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

whoops, sorry about that one.

"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon

by jessef on May 12, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for catching that mistake

I kept looking at that and thinking, “That’s not all that good.”

"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon

by jessef on May 12, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well

I’m glad my man-love comment on Scutaro is getting some play time here :)

So this Joost guy…maybe he was on PEDs? I mean his name is Joost (Juiced?!?! coincidence? I think not). Hey maybe Scutaro is on something too? I’m not pointing fingers but everyone is a suspect in this day and age.

I’m never going to be a huge fan of his, maybe I’m blinded by the fact that he was a utility guy and never an everyday SS…but in the end it’s just a gut feeling…and seriously the nickname Scoot is what puts it over the top…I think he should be wearing a hat with a propeller on the top of it with a nickname like that.

Interstingly enough there was a post over on minorleagueball about Jason Bartlett being the 3rd best SS in all of baseball and how he’s so good based on a month’s worth of games…as i read it I kept thinking I’d probably rather have Scutaro then him :)

by bunner on May 12, 2009 11:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

oh I'd take scutaro over him any day...

And I don’t know why you focus on the utility word…..almost every middle infielder is used as a utility player at some people. It really isn’t the scarlet letter.

For me anyone that is the best fielder at his position and gets on base at above league average, I’ll all for.

by Tom Dakers on May 12, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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