I'm Achin' to Be: Minor League Update

by hugo on May 18, 2009 10:45 AM EDT in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis

Thanks to the great band the Replacements for today's minor-league update, which certainly fits for many of our young players trying to work their way up and out of the minors.

Las Vegas

J.P. Arencibia has turned it on a bit of late, hitting .300/.364/.625 over his last 10 games, with 3 home runs, 10 RBI, and 4 doubles. Also very encouraging is his 4 walks over that span (he only had 2 prior to that). Arencibia's on-base numbers over the season are still poor (.283), but he is starting to pick up steam. Scott Campbell, on the other hand, picked up an injury and hasn't played in a while. I haven't been able to find out much about his injury, so if someone could clue us in, that'd be great. Russ Adams has also been out with an injury. Kyle Philips has been hitting well since his promotion to Las Vegas (.373/.433/.525 in 65 plate appearances).

On the pitching side, Brad Mills has been excellent after a rough start. He still hasn't won a game (0-5) but it's through no fault of his own as he has had an excellent May, with a 2.66 ERA with 26 strikeouts and 10 walks over 23 2/3 innings. Fabio Castro has been even better, with a 1.03 ERA over his 4 Las Vegas starts. And David Purcey had a great start his last time out after 2 shaky ones, going 8 scoreless innings and striking out 7 while walking only 2 and yielding 3 hits. Another good outing from Purcey and the Jays will have 3 very viable callup options. Ricky Romero is scheduled to make his first start for the 51s today after a few so-so starts for New Hampshire. Jeremy Accardo had a rough outing last week, his first poor outing of the year. He's a good candidate for a bullpen callup.

New Hampshire

Brian Dopirak continues to make his case for promotion -- he's now hitting .324/.370/.569 and has 8 home runs, 12 doubles, and 1 triple. He has hit both lefties and righties well. Brad Emaus (.299/.378/.479) continues to do a nice job at the plate and has shown a good batting eye recently, with 7 walks to 7 Ks over his last 10 games. On the other hand, Brian Jeroloman and David Cooper have struggled recently and both are now OPS-ing less than .700 for the season. Sean Shoffit (.154/.298/.253) has really had problems after an encouraging spring for the Jays.

New Hampshire's starting pitching continues to be excellent in the absence of Castro, with Marc Rzepczynski really standing out. Zep is 6-2 with a a 2.93 ERA and 52 Ks to 21 walks in 43 innings, not to mention tons of ground ball outs. And he has turned it up even more in May, with a 17/4 K/BB ratio over his 3 starts (18 1/3 IP). And rehabbing Casey Janssen has been nothing short of fantastic - the 27-year old has a 0.77 ERA in his 2 appearances for New Hamphsire after a 0.75 in 3 starts at Dunedin. Overall, Casey has 17 Ks to just 5 walks.

Dunedin

Eric Thames (.340/.418/.462), Darrin Mastroianni (.308/.423/.377) with 23 BBs and 23 Ks and 25/28 on the basepaths, and Moses Sierra (.302/.386/.440) continue to play superb outfield. Justin Jackson has returned and has been red hot, going 8-11 with a double, a walk, and just one K in his four games back. Kevin Ahrens is still rather quiet, and John Tolisano has quieted down but still has, by far, the best numbers of the three at .255/.345/.459. Adam Loewen (.621 OPS) hasn't picked it up yet.

Tim Collins, who started off the season on an absolute tear, has actually been rather shaky lately, with a 6.00 ERA and a 7/5 K/BB ratio over his last 5 appearances. Andy Liebel, who has been having trouble despite excellent peripheral numbers all year a 29/11 K/BB ratio and just 3 HRs allowed in 40 2/3 innings, had by far his worst peripheral start of the season (4 walks and 3 Ks over 6) but just gave up 1 earned run. That was following a start where he struck out 7 and walked no one over 6 innings and gave up 4 runs.

Lansing

Johermyn Chavez continues to swing a very hot bat (.314/.345/.610) with 7 home runs, 6 doubles, and 4 triples on the season. 2008 draftee and third-base prospect Mark Sobelewski has had a very nice May, hitting .309/.408/.418. Balbino Fuenmayor has turned it up after a horrible start to the season, and is hitting .364/.364/.545 in May. However, the majority of Lansing's hitters, incluing Ty Pastornicky, Jon Del Campo, Marcus Brisker, Kenneth Wilson, and the catching tandem of Jon Talley and AJ Jimenez, are not hitting well.

On the other side of the ball, Henderson Alvarez, John Anderson, and Charles Huggins are pitching well, with Huggins (1.78 ERA, 1.02 Whip, and 31 Ks and 10 walks over 30 2/3 innings, though he just turned 23) the best of the three thusfar.

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Comments

Question for Hugo

just a hypothetical … but if Snider had to go down to get his game back to normal strength … who would be the best candidates to fill his role for a bit

Still loving Moonraker, but he is struggling at the moment

by aagoodfella on May 18, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions

great question

my guess is that Millar (with Lind moving to left field) and/or Bautista would see the vast majority of the at-bats created if Snider was sent down. I think the Jays would call up Joe Inglett to come off the bench and he would likely see some leftfield too. That’s if Inglett were healthy when Snider was sent down – he picked up a leg injury in mid-April and hasn’t played since then – I haven’t heard much detail about the injury or when he might be ready to return.

Buck Coats is another lefty with some speed and defensive ability and he also could be called up if Snider were sent down – but, in that case, virtually all the at-bats would go to Millar and Bautista, with Coats seeing some time as a pinch-runner and maybe as a defensive replacement.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

J.P. Arencibia

Looks like J.P. has started to figure out AAA a bit, which is awesome!

Check out his OPS splits with runners on vs. no runners on.

J.P. Arencibia’s OPS:
Bases empty: .579
Runners on: .942
Runners in scoring position: 1.007

by hallsgator on May 18, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions

yeah

it is great to see him starting to hit. I’m just as excited by his occasionally taking a walk – I don’t expect the walk to ever be a big part of his game, but he’ll have to learn to occasionally take one when it’s offered in order to keep pitchers honest and get good pitches to hit — especially fastballs, which he feasts on, which is one possible reason he has been hitting better with runners on – you will generally see more fastballs from minor-league pitchers in a situation like that.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 18, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I can tell

I listen on the radio or follow on Gameday about 98% of J.P’s games and it seems as if he is becoming a bit more patient at the plate. Which proves to be a huge factor in his production, checkout these numbers…
AVG OBP SLG OPS
Ahead in Count .314 .415 .543 .957
Behind in Count .158 .158 .421 .579

When he is taking pitches and getting ahead in counts, he is raking. When he swinging at the first two pitches, he is putting himself in a bind.

by hallsgator on May 18, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions