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I've Got Ways To Make You Come Back To Me: David Purcey in AAA and the Future of the Jays' Rotation

So, we know that Brian Tallet, Robert Ray, and Brett Cecil have done an outstanding job of filling in the rotation this season, and that Scott Richmond has similarly done an excellent job since breaking camp as the 5th starter.  We've also talked a lot about Casey Janssen, who is lighting up the minors, and Ricky Romero, who is not, both of whom are waiting to get back into the majors, and Jesse Litsch, who is rehabbing his injury and should be ready to return in June sometime.  And finally, we've talked about Fabio Castro and Brad Mills, both of whom are pitching extremely well in the minors right now. 

But now we seem to have yet another wrinkle.  David Purcey started the second game for the Jays this season and did a fine job, yielding 3 runs over 7 innings while striking out 5 and walking three.  However, his subsequent 4 starts were not nearly as effective (the best of the bunch being a 5 1/3 innings, 6 K, 3 run effort) and Purcey was ultimately banished to the minors after a particularly poor start in which Purcey was both wild (55 of 93 pitches thrown for strikes, 3 walks over 5 innings) and way too hittable (3 HR and a triple and 8 hits in 5 innings), his ERA ballooning over 7.  The message to the big lefty was clear - throw strikes or you have no place in the majors. 

Purcey started AAA more or less like he left the Jays - he walked 8 batters (almost 1/inning) in his first two starts.  However, his last two efforts have been a different story.  On May 13, Purcey went 8 scoreless innings, striking out 7 and walking just 2, and yielded just three hits.  In his most recent start, Purcey was similiarly successful, striking out 7 over 7 innings and giving up just 1 run, again walking just 2 batters.  Just as significantly, Purcey threw 72 of his 110 pitches for strikes and got 10 groundouts to just 3 outs in the air.  It's only two starts, but it appears as though Purcey may have recovered the improved control he demonstrated in the minor leagues last season, and in the majors after the all-star break when he became a permanent rotation member (his walk rate was under 3/9 IP once that happened, very good for someone with Purcey's K rate). 

I'm not necessarily in any hurry to get Purcey back to the big leagues, but it is great to see him demonstrate improved control over his last two outings.  Another good start and I would be comfortable calling him up if we needed to.  The only problem is that he likely finds himself down on the depth chart now.  So, I wanted to pose the following question, though certainly I hope that our current starting corps continues their excellent performance. 

Out of Romero, Janssen, Purcey, Castro, Mills, Purcey, and why not, Wade Miller (no Burres, haha, I'm assuming he's last), what does your depth chart look like in terms of in what order would you call up these starters?  Who would you be most comfortable, maybe even excited, about penciling into the rotation should a change need to be made? 

Lastly , i do think we should acknowledge the work General Manager J.P. Ricciardi did in assembling this group of quality pitchers.  They have come through the first round (Romero, Purcey, Cecil, McGowan) and subsequent rounds (Janssen, Mills, Ray, Litsch, Marcum) of the draft, through trades (Castro) and no-cost pickups (Tallet, Richmond), and they have done a fine job. 

Today's post by Ottawa's own alt.country songstress Kathleen Edwards

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IMO

Janssen then Romero followed by a distant third is Purcey. I’m also hoping there is no need to call up more than 3!
Janseen makes me the most excited, he has been great.

I would like to see the rotation as follows:
Doc
Janssen
Romero
Cecil
Richmond.

But thats just today. Tomorrow this will probably change

Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.

by craig in calgary on May 20, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions  

You are slipping....I know who Kathleen Edwards is....

Ranking these guys is tough…..I like Purcey because he gets strikeouts and that is a good thing.

Right now out of the ones that could be called up I’d likely go:
Janssen
Purcey
Romero
Castro
Mills
Miller

But changes daily. Is tough to compare them all because Janssen is at Double A in a better pitchers league than the PCL.

by Tom Dakers on May 20, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Prucey over Romero?

You can compare apples and apples here.
Romero has been very good. As good as Romero has been, Purcey has been that bad.

Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.

by craig in calgary on May 20, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

You have to get the McCarver zinger right

“As good as Romero has been, that’s how as bad Purcey is now.”

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on May 20, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Purcey has also been good at times....

for me Purcey can strike guys out….that’s a big deal to me. pitching to contact is fine but striking guys out is pretty important.

by Tom Dakers on May 20, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seems about right

That sounds about right. I would probably move Cecil to the 2-spot.

Janssen is probably three.

Romero is still struggling it sounds like so I might hold off concluding on him. Let’s see how Ray looks tomorrow night as he is progressing ahead of schedule.

I am still a bit nervous on Richmond after those two consecutive games where he was turfed but he should be back.

I think Purcey needs to put together 5 straight strong outings before it is a sale yet. Afterall, he did deliver about that many weak performances. However, the fact that he is throwing 60-70% strike/total pitches may truly be indicative that he has slayed his dragon.

What about Marcum and McGowan … we have a big problem shaping up here.

by aagoodfella on May 20, 2009 2:42 PM EDT reply actions  

http://jaynation.mlblogs.com/

When McG and Marcum come back, barring that they are healthy, this will be a mess. But for now its looks like it is shaping up to be
Doc
Cece
Janssen
Rich
Romero/Purc (whoever performs better in Vegas)

by LD10 on May 20, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Janssen, Litsch (when his recovery is complete), Romero, and Purcey. I’m desperately hoping we don’t NEED to make any more rotation callups this season.

That being said, you’re right, we DO have a serious bottle-neck of professional-level pitching talent. Considering how our call-ups have pitched, and including the expected results from Marcum and McGowan, we have the tools to field not one but two MLB-ready starting rotations, as well as two complete (if slightly undermanned) bullpens (if you include our professional-ready/near-ready call-up options). The good news is that there are enough teams on the cusp of making the playoffs with either questionable starting pitching beyond their first two starters, questionable bullpens beyond their closer, or both, that we may be able to offer at least some of these arms as trade bait – ideally for some more power behind the plate.

by Blue and White Expat on May 20, 2009 2:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Barajas hasn’t been that bad.

I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people all day long and I assume they deserve it. - Dogbert

by JohnnyG on May 20, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would argue

that he’s been great. Plus we have Arencibia on his way up.

by boo15749 on May 20, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly, So Im not too sure why we need more power behind the plate.

I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people all day long and I assume they deserve it. - Dogbert

by JohnnyG on May 20, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I gotta admit, Im pulling for Purcey to make it back… Yes I have him in my long term keeper league for super cheap but thats besides the point.

Im with LD10

Doc
Cecil
Janssen
Richmond
Romero/Purcey

Interesting thought from Wilner on the DJF podcast, when all these arms start to come back you simply don’t have the room. He thinks that Litsch will be the odd one out and will be shopped as trade bait. He is a slightly more proven major leaguer established in the AL East. You should be able to get something for him… not much but something.

I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people all day long and I assume they deserve it. - Dogbert

by JohnnyG on May 20, 2009 2:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I’m all for trading the fatty.

Sports And The City

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by eyebleaf on May 20, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

And yet you bash DGB for the Wellwood jokes? Tsk Tsk

I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people all day long and I assume they deserve it. - Dogbert

by JohnnyG on May 20, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Romero

Romero would be my first call up. At this point, I would consider using Janssen out of the ‘Pen again. Litsch doesn’t excite me too much but he has been fairly reliable over the last 2 years and his age doesn’t hurt.

It’s a nice problem to have isn’t it? Especially considering most “experts” didn’t give the Jays staff a chance this year.

by masterkembo on May 20, 2009 4:38 PM EDT reply actions  

My thought exactly ...

… it’s a nice problem to have.

Someone point me to the thread where we discuss the future of Jays pitching after McGowan and Marcum are back. :)

Still waiting for the Eagles to Bring It Home For Jerome

by D3Keith on May 29, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

It will be a mess when Mar and McG come back. But a great mess to have!!!

Janssen first based on MLB experience
Romero next based on need
Purcey last based on trust

by BigTimeBlueJayFan on May 20, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions  

I think my depth chart of Jays starters reads

Super-amazing #1: Doc

Guys who have to lose their job to get sent down:
Richmond
Tallet
Litsch
Romero (on a tight leash)
Janssen (initially in pen pending Romero’s performance)

Guys who need one of the above to falter to get called up:

Cecil
Ray
Purcey
Castro
Mills
Miller

So Cecil gets the first call up should one of the guys above him get hurt, then Ray, etc. This was a crazy-hard list to put together, especially that Litsch-Romero-Janssen-Cecil combo. I think the need to conserve Cecil’s innings warrants at least a temporary send-down to the minors. Keep his workload light-ish through the summer so we can call him up in August/September if necessary.

by SuckaMD on May 20, 2009 6:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Unfortunately at this point we can’t REALLY rely on anyone other than Halladay. Guys have been effective this year and last on occasion but noone has really put together a consistently impressive body of work. I’m happy giving all of these guys starts this year to see who is the real deal (which was the idea in the first place). Then we can keep the top 5 or 6 and deal some of the others for hitting or a proven no.2 pitcher for next season. This season is supposed to be fun and we’re letting the kids go at it.

by cnagy77 on May 20, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions  

The 116 win Mariners team?

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on May 21, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nobody's put together a body of work large enough to talk about meaningfully.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on May 21, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think that's right

but it cuts both ways. Isn’t that really just that much more reason to go with the guys they initially wanted for the rotation?

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 21, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Jays really should look to trade one of their arms for either a strong reliable batter (someones going to get hurt this season, no doubt about it), or maybe a top quality minor league hitting prospect (especially at 1B or 3B)… I know we have Ahrens and that other guy whos name i forgot at 1st, but maybe someone whos more proven and considering star material???

i know you can never have too much pitching… but i think right now, you really can have too much pitching. its just stopping guys who should be in the majors from being up here.

by ohmybosh on May 22, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions  

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