Anatomy of a Losing Streak

Over the past 5 games, your first-place Jays have:

  • Batted a Wilkersonian .241/.287/.324/.611 as a team, with a paltry 11 walks and just 1 home run.  So let's stop hearing about how the problem is a few players who shall remain nameless not doing the job with runners in scoring position.  With those numbers, it's no suprise the Jays haven't won a game.  The Jays team OPS has dropped 21 points over 5 games.  Ouch. 
  • Left 40 runners on base.  So, yeah, that hasn't been good either, but when you're getting on base only 28.7% of the time, you can hardly complain about not driving runners in. 
  • Pitched quite well.  Even despite the Cecil blowup, the Jays pitchers have a 4.28 ERA and a 32/9 K/BB ratio over 40 innings and have seen their team ERA basically unchanged since the losing streak began.  The starters' 5.46 ERA isn't great but is hardly bad, considering the damage done by Cecil's start.  And the bullpen's 2.25 ERA over their 12 innings would have really kept the Jays in these games if the hitting hadn't been so completely atrocious.  
  • Despite the anecdata of hard hit balls right at people, the Jays' hitters haven't really been the victim of bad luck the last 5 days.  Their collective BABIP is .279, which, while perhaps a tad low, isn't out of whack with their line drive rate recently (19%).  
  • Gone 0-3 in 1-run games.  1-run games are mostly luck with some bullpen thrown in, and the Jays bullpen has been quite good.  Over these 5 games, the Jays have gone from overperforming their pythagorean record by a game to underperforming it by a game.  These things even out.  Only problem here is that the Jays still have a good record (9-6) in one run games, though not out of proportion with the team's overall record. 

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