Beautiful Thursday it was! What about Friday and the weekend?
by Marco1978 on Jun 19, 2009 5:43 AM EDT
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Great win, crazy game, I was extremely emotional! A whole lot more than you can imagine by reading my postings, trust me! Likely even more if compared to what an average Italian fan does at a football game!
I'll dig into the good news that resulted from Thursday's great sweep, then stick my nose into Friday and the Washington series which becomes pivotal as a proof of this team's ability to keep its focus and build something steady on a very big series sweep that was sweetened by two delicious losses by Boston at home (thank you, rain!) and by the damn yankees as they were blanked by Washington at home, wow! The Nationals can surprise, yes.
First of all, we got within 1 game of the damn NYY who lost the series to Washington in the Bronx (are you kidding me?) and within 4 games of the Red Sox but both have played 2 fewer games than the Jays. We do need to make a statement against Washington to show that our big sweep is carrying over its good effects and to show that yes, Washington can surprise and win a series in the Bronx but we can't absolutely let our guard down right now.
In our sweep of Philly at their place, we piled up 41 hits and we scored 23 runs and at least 7 in each game! We got back to 16-18 on the road with a big chance to get back above .500 away from SkyDome, we do need to take full advantage of it!
The only other time this year we scored 7 or more runs in 3 straight games was May 4 to 6 but in that case we first lost 9-7 to Cleveland, then won 10-6 against the Indians (both were home games) before winning 13-1 in LA against the Angels. Let's hope this delightful streak continues, folks!
On the other hand, we have allowed 6 or more runs in four of our last six games. We need to stop messing up!
Thursday, we improved to 10-9 in 1-run games but we had lost our six such games! Glad to see this reversal in such a huge game and let's hope this can be the start of a very positive trend!
Thursday's win was our first by a run since May 18 when we beat the White Sox 3-2 at home! Since then, we had lost 2-1 in Boston May 19, 1-0 in Atlanta May 22, 4-3 in Atlanta May 23, 6-5 at home to the Angels June 4, 1-0 at Texas June 11 and 6-5 at home to Florida June 13. Holy cow, that can't continue if we want to stay in this tough race!!!
Can you believe it? In the 5 road games before Thursday's win, Toronto had allowed each time 3 or fewer runs and in total, had given up just 7 runs! Only one other streak this year was comparable: giving up 3 or fewer runs in 3 straight games April 13 to 15, always in Minneapolis (a 3-2 loss followed by a 12-2 win and a 9-2 win).
On Thursday, we got homers from Lind but also from Chavez and Barajas......Rod had 2 homers in the series and in 2008 he had a pair of long balls including a grand slam in a Jays' win!
Jason Frasor got the win to improve to 5-0, wow. Jeremy Accardo got his first 2009 save after being called up. Let's not forget that he had 30 saves for Toronto in 2007. Best wishes to him.
Brad Mills lasted just 3 2/3 innings though so we had to use 7 relievers, not pleasant at all. Jason Frasor has given 5 ER all year and 4 came in one outing May 24 in Atlanta (a 10-2 loss).
Taking that game out, in his last 9 outings Frasor has 9 1/3 IP with only 4 hits and no runs allowed! Opponents are hitting .198 against him in 2009. Excellent!
He has 3 holds and 1 save in 2 tries because he blew the save Thursday but he owns an ERA of just 1.88 with 19 Ks and just 3 walks this year! On the other side, with Lidge injured the Phillies put Ryan Madson out in this series and he had a loss Thursday and a blown save Tuesday!
Jason Frasor was 2-7 overall in 2007 (51 appearances, 57 IP) and 2008 (49 appearances, 47 1/3 IP) combined with 3 saves in 7 chances and a total of 8 holds. This year, he has 24 IP in 26 appearances already!
Rod Barajas now has 5 career homers against the Phillies. In the last 2 seasons, he has hit 4 homers in 6 games played in Philly!
Oddly, Jimmy Rollins got from Toronto his first walk since May 27, a span of 87 at bats. However, the real problem was Jayson Werth who has 6 homers in his last 6 games against Toronto.
As a whole, before the last 2 productive efforts by Vernon Wells and Scott Rolen in the 8th inning Thursday the jays had been 7 for 36 with RISP in the Philly series. So they finished 9 for 38 at .237, not enough by any stretch!
Rolen's .327 average leads the club. He is 49 for 144 (.340) lifetime against Philly with 3 homers and 26 RBI.
Not only did Raul Chavez homer Thursday, he also threw out Rollins as he tried to steal third!
All in all, we already used 11 starters this year! Moreover, the Nationals were 6-27 in their last 33 before winning 2 of 3 in the Bronx so as always, attention is required.
The Nats have won just 3 series all year, the series won in New York was the first they won since May 7-9 at Arizona.
Washington will send to the mound a rookie on Friday night, Jordan Zimmermann. For the year he's 2-3 with a 5.37 ERA but he hasn't won since April 26. He won both of his first 2 starts this year and then went 0-3 with a 6.11 ERA since then. In his last start, he gave up only 1 run in 5 innings as the Nats lost 8-3 on Saturday at Tampa Bay.
Toronto had at least 12 hits in each of the 3 wins in Philly. For the series, the Jays went 41 for 123 (.333). In the four losses suffered before Tuesday June 16 (one at Texas and 3 at home to Florida), the team had batted only .205!
Vernon Wells had a good series in Philly (6 for 16 with a double and 2 RBI, a walk and a steal) after entering without a hit in his previous 16 AB! Yet, still no homer from him since May 6, a stretch of 153 AB, his longest ever drought!
Adam Lind entered the Philly series hitless in 12 straight at bats (all against Florida at home) then went 6 for 13 in the Philly sweep with 2 homers, 3 RBI, 4 runs scored and 3 walks! Magnifico! Still, 6 for his last 25 (.240), oops!
On Friday, Brian Tallet will get the start for us. He's 4-4 with a 4.87 ERA this year. Last time out, Sunday May 14 the Jays lost 11-3 at home to Florida and Brian gave up 10 hits (including a homer) and 8 runs in just 3 1/3 IP.
Brian has served up 3 homers in his last 4 starts after not allowing any in his previous 3 starts (all were 6-inning efforts May 14-25 but the Jays lost all three, 3-2 at home to NYY, 2-1 at Boston and 4-1 at Baltimore).
Before Sunday's loss to Florida, Tallet had gone 2-0 in his previous 3 starts pitching a total of 20 innings. He has just 1 career appearances against the Nationals (16 June 2007) as he got one out but gave up two hits and a run.
Since the move from Montreal to Washington (in 2005), Toronto is 8-4 against the Nationals yet caution is advised as the Jays lost 2 of 3 in their only trip to Washington (June 24-26, 2005). The Nats are 10-22 at home this year.
I will write more as the day at the office goes on and as I do more web surfing to dig more interesting news.
Let's hope for the best for this crucial series. Best wishes to everybody.
I feel sorry for hugo, having the tickets but not being able to see a Doc start...........
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Important note on Vernon Wells
Vernon had 2 RBI in Thursday’s win and they were his first since our 4-0 home win (behind Doc’s CG) against KC on June 7! He had gone 8 full games without an RBI………
usually when vernon has a good game he tends to sleep the next three - i hope we see him in washington
btw – anyone noticed ordonez has been benched – for hitting .273, and .300 with RISP!! All for lack of power numbers… too bad we can’t swap wells for ordonez…. they make about the same
Except Ordonez is about 4 years older...
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
And
He has the same amount of strikeouts in waaaaay fewer at bats.
Vernon has been making a difference on the basepaths and has scored many more runs, Ordonez only has 22 RBIs vs Wells 30
This most likely has something to do with the clause in his contract that automatically makes his 2010 club option for 18Mil vest if he reaches the following conditions:
- 2010 option guaranteed at $18M if Ordonez has:
* 135 starts or 540 PAs in 2009, or
* 270 starts or 1,080 PAs in 2008-09
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
can’t compare the RBIs – VW has had 50% more chances – actually Ordonez’s RBI conversion rate is a bit better – 13% vs 11%.
and his OBP is higher – so if there’s someone to drive him in, he should score more often.
I’ll grant the SBs to VW – he’s earned those and that’s a plus.
Still rather have Wells then Ordonez a 13% to 11% is negligible
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
its not that neglible
the entire league’s conversion rates fall between 10-20% – so we’re looking at converting 1/9 chances vs 1/8
but i’ll give you that it isn’t that big of a deal in the short term
- lets see how both players respond from now on
- one to media pressure, the other to benching…
while vernon's defence has certainly declined
how funny would it be to watch magglio ordonez try to play centre?
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
I'd love to see stats behind that 'tend to sleep the next three'
I think, in his career, when he’s been hot he tends to stay hot. Course he has been cold for so long now, hard to remember.
yeah tough to dig that one up – just going on feeling there – and only on this season’s trend so far – so it may not be reflective of vw as a player, just this season
i just calculated his total bases in every game played so far… first 30 games there’s a definite peak and trough pattern, with about 3 days of trough… not so much recently – (maybe that’s when his slump became big news in the papers?)
Very cool....kind of interesting that there is some of good day couple of bad....
and some good followed by not as good….would be nice to see more 5 or more bases in a game.
I think it mostly indicates that he has been bad overall with a few days in between
but it does look like at minimum 3 between good ones
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
until very recently, right?
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Let's not forget what the issues are though..........
…….in the Philly sweep, our pitchers gave up 6 homers: one Tuesday, one Wednesday and 4 on Thursday!
We had given up 2 more on Sunday June 14, two more on Saturday June13, one more on Friday May 12 (a grand slam) for a total of 5 served up to Florida in that series at SkyDome.
Last time we didn’t allow any home run? The 1-0 loss at Texas on June 11.
Actually, we also didn’t allow any long balls in a 3-game stretch June 7 to 9 (a 4-0 home win against KC behind Doc’s CG, back-to-back wins 6-3 and 9-0 at Texas).
To sum it up: we have allowed 11 homers in our last 6 games after not allowing any in our previous 4 contests. Is anyone a bit concerned given all our pitching injuries? I am! We can’t expect to play .600 ball out-slugging everyone by a run. Caution is advised…….
Still on the issue of HRs allowed by the Jays..........
……going back further, we served up 1 to KC in a June 6 loss and a total of 4 over a three-game home series to the LA Angels (we lost 2 of 3 and gave up 2 homers on June 5, one on June 4 and one on June 3).
So, updating the tally: 11 HRs allowed by Toronto in our last 6 games, none allowed in the previous 4 games but that good stretch came after a 4-game span in which our opponents hit 5 dingers. Total? Here it is: 16 HRs allowed by the Jays in the last 14 games. Completely unacceptable and a reason why we aren’t much closer to the top!!!!
Reviewing all the chances given away in Thursday's win.........
………..just horrible………..5th inning: men at 2nd and 3rd, no out and no run scored…….
6th inning: men on 1st and 2nd, 1 out then bases full with 2 outs but nothing……….
7th inning: bases full with 1 out and nothing……………
8th inning: after we went up 7-5, an IBB to Lind loaded the bases with 1 out but we were unable to secure the win and had to suffer another inning and a half!
This is totally unacceptable and must change for the better. I mean: we won and had a very good PH contribution (which hadn’t been the case thus far this year), yet we need to solve this other issue quickly, let’s not forget that in Tuesday’s 8-3 win in 10 innings we stranded 16 men on base, the most since April 24, 2004 against the Orioles!
the other half of that, though
is that we are getting a ton of guys on base and into scoring position. That’s a very good thing, not a bad thing.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
No question, hugo........this comment has more on the Jays and Boston........
However, the old “get them on, get them over, get them in” as they said last night on WGN during the Cubs’ game is always true and we need to get that 3rd part done on a consistent basis too.
I also have a very interesting discovery about the Red Sox, who aren’t doing as well as I thought in the clutch, at least in the following situations: in the 6th inning or later, tied or trailing by 1 or 2 runs, 2 outs, and runners on base.
Through May 14, Boston’s hitters were 9 for 37 (.243).
Since May 15 though, they have come to the plate 14 times and been retired 14 times.
Over a month without reaching base in those situations.
Their .250 OBP in those spots in 2009 is 3rd lowest in the majors.
Only White Sox and Mariners are doing more poorly on that front thus far.
Here’s a very worrisome discovery comparing our Jays to Boston: 6th inning or later, tied or leading by 1 or 2 runs.
In these cases, our pitchers allowed so far the 3rd lowest OPS in the AL (.629) but the Red Sox pitchers as a whole clearly have more experience and less injuries, infact they have allowed in such cases the lowest OPS in the AL (.457, thanks to a .238 OBP and a .219 slugging percentage).
Moreover, in those situations Boston pitchers have allowed a scary .123 batting average to their opponents (just 9 hits given up in 73 AB and with 84 batters faced). Ouch!
The Red Sox are 2nd in the AL for most batters faced in those clutch situations!
I guess if their pitchers allow so little in the clutch, then that is more than enough to offset their “normal” offensive production in the clutch, especially in the last month.
At Fenway this year, Boston pitchers in those clutch situations have allowed a shocking .115 average (3 for 26) which translates into a .148 OBP for their opponents!
Still on Boston, Beckett has 7 wins and has allowed the 3rd lowest OPS in the AL at .628 just slightly above Verlander and Greinke.
Wakefield on the other hand has 9 wins but has allowed the 4th highest OPS in the AL at a very encouraging 1.077 (so are his 9 wins just a product of high run support?).
Congratulations to Raul Chavez
In Thursday’s win, he threw out two runners trying to steal, one in the 1st, one in the 8th!
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