Pitching Conundrum
by bunner on Jun 2, 2009 10:07 AM EDT
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The Jays have a pitching conundrum on their hands and it's not a bad thing...So far this year Doc has been Doc, Tallet has been better then expected, Richmond has been good, Janssen has looked good in his few starts, Romero has been up and down but hopefully will have more ups as the season moves on. So that's 5 decent starters right there....
Jesse Litsch is recovering from injury and could return soon, Marcum and McGowan will both possibly return at some point in 2009 in preparation for a healthy 2010.
That is 8 starters who have all had some degree of success at the major league level...
In the minors there is Brett Cecil who outside of 1 bad outing vs Boston looked like a future ace with the Jays, Robert Ray who at the worst could be a solid back end rotation innings eater type starter, Brad Mills has had a solid go of it in AAA after a spectacular spring and David Purcey who's been ok in AAA though got knocked around in the majors. Fabio Castro has really come on in 2009. In AA Reidier Gonzalez has looked good, Marc Rzepczynski has potential as well...So that gives the Jays 7 starter prospects in the high minors with major league abilities.
Where does all this leave the Jays rotation in 2010? Doc will be #1, Marcum/McGowan/Janssen would be penciled in as 2-3-4 starters so that leaves Romero, Litsch, Tallet, Richmond battling for the 5th spot. However one would have to assume that Cecil will be ready for full-time pitching duties in 2010 as might Mills and Ray.
Having too much of a commodity is not a bad thing, what is a little unnerving is wondering how JP will deal with this excess of quality arms. I for one hope he packages a few starters together to add a legitimate power bat to the middle of the order or to acquire a 2nd ace to slot in behind Halladay (or both?)
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mirage?
It all sounds nice, but it is like dot.com stocks. There are great expectations that the market is gonna be huge. Someday everyone will be using these services. The companies have great potential. But .. you cannot bank potential and then poof the dot.com mirage disappeared.
We do not know whether Marcum or Macgowan will return to form. Look at Chacin; he never came back. Litsch’s injury is proving to be more serious than expected and if you consider Litsch’s 2009, none of his outings were strong. Maybe the problem was already bothering him.
There may be something to look forward to in Cecil, Ray, Purcey, Mills and Castro, but they are yet unproven commodities. Cecil is my fave and I think Ray could develop into even more than your expectations. Purcey is still very much a wild card. Mills and Castro are even lest proven. Bottom line, it could all be illusory.
With respect to Jays pitching, at the moment there seems to be a lot more questions than answers. Over time, hopefully it sorts itself out. On balance, I would say the Jay’s pitching outlook gets a B grade. If Marcum, Macgowan and Litsch injuries prove career threatening and a couple of minor leaguers do not work out … than ka-boom, Jay’s pitching outlook is bleak. I do not think this is the most likely outcome, but I do think it falls within reasonable bounds of expectations.
Bottom line, it is a bit premature to be counting excess pitching assets for the Jays at this time. If such excess comes to be realized in the near-term or a couple of years, than hooray, the Jays can talk trade.
Plus do not forget, Halladay is a free agent after 2010 …. we do not even want to go there, but it is an issue.
i dunno if Marcum and McGowan are really question marks
certainly it’s possible that they won’t fully recover but from Tommy John surgery at least, most pitchers are just as strong as before the surgery. So I think those two can be counted on come 2010.
TJ/Rotator Cuff/Labrum
Control is the last thing to return to a TJ pitcher, and Marcum lives on his control. I am hoping that he returns to pitch this year so that he can get the control back for next year.
As for Dusty, his career is probably in more jeopardy. I understand they didn’t touch his labrum when in his shoulder, which is encouraging in some respects, but rotator cuff surgery is still a difficult one to come back from. And apparently he has had his difficulties.
That said, if both come back healthy for next year, I think our best rotation is Doc, Marcum, Dustin, Romero and Cecil. Apologies to Jesse, Casey and Davey and Scotty.
Doubts about Litsch?
Since we’re talking about pitchers… Do any of you actually believe Litsch deserves to be in a major league rotation outside of maybe Washington? I’ve personally never liked the kid. I know a few of his numbers were decent in ‘08 but outside of a handful of good starts I can feel my heart rate nearly double whenever I see him warming up. I just don’t feel that he has what it takes to be here, but am I the only one that feels this way?
Anyways that mini-rant aside… If you ask me what I think the opening day rotation looks like in 2010 based on what I see as of right now? I’m thinkin along the lines of Doc, Marcum, Janssen, Romero, and Cecil.
I hope, but don’t think that at this moment, we’ll see McGowan on opening day. Cecil is there imagining a few more of his starts this year go really well for him at every level. Tallet and Richmond are much better long-arm options than Wolfe and as a previously ranted… I just don’t like Litsch. Plus, some of these guys have shown their stuff this year in a way that could make them good trade bait if what JP says about making moves at the deadline this year is true… Speaking of trade bait… I’ll fanpost on that now.
Litsch is the best tradebait option that we have. But we will have to showcase him when he gets back.
I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people all day long and I assume they deserve it. - Dogbert
Better than Marcum and McGowan
and they all pitch in front of the same defence.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Apparently Litsch is still having pain and met with Dr. Andrews today...
so not likely to be trade bait for a bit.
I wish I was Dr. Andrews
That guy must make serious coin. EVERYONE goes to him.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jun 2, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I would rather
… be one of those folks, like Litsch, who goes to Dr. Andrews ;-)
some doubts
I have some doubts about him … his record has been a bit sketchy (injury, down to minors and back), but you cannot argue his statistics, as Tom Dakers points out
It is possible these are just transitional issues that work themselves out and he grows to become a solid consistent pitcher – tough to say
Of course, the verdict on most pitchers is rarely as cut and dry as it is for say, Halladay. But this is part of the challenge, I guess.
This is why I am not so keen on trading away all these young arms. Jays may need them and a good pitcher may be worth more than an incremental 10 points in batting avg and 25 points in slugging that a trade might get you.
im more worried about doc leaving in 2010
he never says anything about whether he likes playing here enough to stay or not… he never really says anything at all. Im really worried we’ll lose him in FA… it’d be nice to know his stance at the end of this season to at least see if trading him would be the best bet.
You have to let him walk
Nothing you get back in a trade will help the team win in 2010 as much as Doc.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Trading for "prospects" sucks
Tony Gonzalez is my favourite athlete (probably of all time) and as much as I understand why trading him made sence, I cannot fathom seeing him in a Falcons Jersey. Doc pitching for the Yanks and beating the Jays would make me jump off a friggin bridge.
At some point, players stopped being recognizable with teams and just became commodities. This to me takes some of the fun out of chearing for your favourite team.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jun 2, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
the jays would never trade halladay within the division. thats why i’d rather see them trade him than have him sign with the yanks…
i know we all think now that he knows its the evil empire and everyone in toronto would commit suicide if he did it… but it really is just about the money nowdays. i wish it werent the case but i think Halladay is fed up with not winning championships.
I am really hoping Doc sees past the money and sticks with the Jays. That damn Vernon contract is going to come back to bite us again and again. A portion of that money should have gone to Halladay.
by BigTimeBlueJayFan on Jun 3, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I will argue with the stats.
Sorry Tom, but I’m sticking by my support for Marcum on this one. If you want to look at ‘07 and ’08 then we will. Marcum’s WHIP is better, his ERA in ‘08 was better, opponents are batting closer to .275 against Jesse than Shawn (whose BAA in ’07 was .250 and .220 in ’08). His BB:K marks are consistent for both years at 50:122 while Jesse pulled a 35:50 one year and 40:100 the next. Over that span they’ve both started about 50 games a piece.
It’s those numbers that make me worried whenever Litsch grabs the ball. That .275 BAA can get especially nerve-racking when you play in parks like Yankee stadium or Ranger’s Ballpark where all it takes is one swing of the bat. I’m sure you’ll find a way to counter this argument but I don’t think anything can convince me to feel safe with Jesse taking the mound.
An unrelated stat I saw today was
In Casey Janssens 2 starts he had 7 (Seven) swing and misses TOTAL… How is these even possible? Especially against a guy as clueless as Big Papi.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jun 2, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
he is a ground ball outer
i believe someone posted … whatever gets it done
Oh I'm a huge Marcum fan....
I’d rather have him than Litsch…but you never know how Marcum will come back. Just the idea that Litsch isn’t good when he came up quite young from Double A and has had ERA’s under 4.00 both seasons….I think he’s pretty decent.
Holliday
we need to go get him from Oakland. Package some people up.
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