Offensive consistency
by epoxypatch on Jun 22, 2009 7:17 PM EDT
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I ran into a thread about offensive consistency on the Yankees board, so I thought I would run some numbers to compare the top 4 teams in the AL EAST so far. I define offensive consistency as the ability to score 5 runs or more, over several games (see first figure). I choose 5 runs because the majority of team ERAs in the league are between 4 and 5, so if your team scores 5 runs or more, you are likely to win. I checked this likelihood with the 4 teams, and although it is correct, there are also some interesting differences in the ability of a team to convert an offense of 5 runs or more into a win (see second figure).
via i40.tinypic.com
via i44.tinypic.com
Of course comments welcome here.
Some things to note :
Based on this kind of binned analysis, it appears that the Red Sox have had the longest streaks where they have scored 5 runs or more. Also interesting is the similarity between the Rays and the Yankees - lots of singular streaks where they score 5 runs, and then less than 5 runs(Yankees have done it 14 times already). One could refer to this as inconsistency (?). The Blue Jays are different from the others, they have the highest frequency of 3-game streaks where they score 5 runs or more (8 times!), but have not been able to extend any of those streaks beyond 3 games even once. This could explain why they don't have a winning streak longer than 4 games all season.
Also note here that all of these teams have scored 5 runs or more almost the same total number of times so far (37-40 times in all cases), so this comparison between teams is based on the same sample size.
Another key difference (although its seems slight) is how well the Red Sox convert a 5 run offence into a win (nearly 90%), and how that is a bit lower in the case of the Yankees (78%).
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interesting stuff
one thing you should consider is that the Jays have the only team in the division whose park plays neutral to slightly pitcher friendly – the four other parks, new Yankee Stadium, Fenway, Camden, and the Trop, all play hitter-friendly, with Fenway considerably on that side. So it’s no surprise that they may “consistently” put up higher run totals, though part of what accounts for that is the size and shape of their park.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
hmm i didn't think of that -
but then we would expect differences in the total numbers of times the teams have scored 5 runs or more, and that’s not the case.
not necessarily, no
because each team is playing half its games at home, but those games often come 6-9 times in a row. So if the Red Sox have a 9 game homestand, for example, it’s a lot easier for them to put together a string of games where they’re scoring lots of runs than it would be for a team that plays its home games in a pitcher’s park.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
According to this analysis,
Wouldn’t the Yankees actually be the most consistent offence and the Red Sox be the streakiest?
If the Red Sox are putting up their 5+-run games in a row, that means that they are having hot streaks for several games, but then flame out for a while before putting together another run of 5+-run games.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
yeah,
I don’t get how streaks of 5+ runs in successive games, followed by dry spells=“consistency”
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
well my interpretation is
that since all the teams have scored 5 runs + the same TOTAL number of times, the Yankees are scoring them in consecutive games the fewest number of times. The Red Sox are scoring them in strings the most often. This also means that the Red Sox score 5+ in several consecutive games, then flame out for the SHORTEST time before they regain their offence.
I think your interpretation is flawed.
If the Red Sox score 5+runs in strings most often, then they flame out for the longest time before they regain their offence. Streakiness is the opposite of consistency.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
Folks, may I please add my own two cents (by the numbers, as usual).........
Toronto won its first 8 games this year when scoring 5 runs or more, in an 11-game span April 6 to 16.
Then came a loss to Oakland but four more such wins then followed in a 7-game span (April 22 to 28) before an 8-6 loss to KC April 30.
So the Jays in such games in April went 12-2 and for the whole month they were 15-9!
In other words, they went 3-7 when scoring 4 runs or less in April. Not enough good pitching when they did not have a good offensive game.
The Jays began May with back-to-back wins (8-4 and 5-4) at home against Baltimore.
After a 9-7 loss to Cleveland, they also won back-to-back games May 5 and 6 against Cleveland (10-6) and the LA Angels (13-1 on the road).
Then (May 9-12) they won 3 straight games scoring 5 runs or more each time (6-4 and 5-0 at Oakland then 5-1 at home against the damn NYY).
Therefore, Toronto went 7-1 when scoring 5 runs or more in a span comprising its first 11 May games.
At that point, for 15 days this offensive consistency vanished as Toronto first lost that home series against the damn yankees and then lost 8 straight on the road.
Up to May 12, Toronto had played 35 games and gone 19-3 when scoring 5 runs or more. Very good indeed but then the awful period took place.
The Jays’ last one of their 9 straight road losses came in Baltimore May 27 by a 12-10 score (as the bullpen squandered an 8-3 lead left by Doc!).
Luckily, Toronto snapped back May 29 and 30 with consecutive home wins against Boston (6-3 and 5-3 respectively).
Overall in May, Toronto started the month 12-5 but then lost 10 of 12 to end the month at 14-15.
When scoring at least 5 runs, they went 9-2 in May but in other games they went 5-13!
In the first 8 games of June, Toronto went 4-1 when scoring 5 runs or more (with the only angering exception being that 6-5 home loss to the Angels June 4).
Three of those four wins came in a 5-game span (June 5 to 9).
After a 6-5 home loss to Florida June 13, we got the sweep in Philly scoring at least 7 runs in each of those 3 games and then won 9-4 in DC last Sunday.
So far in June, Toronto is 8-2 when scoring 5 runs or more for a total mark in those games this year of 29-6 after 70 games played.
In short, in half of their games they have scored 5 runs or more thus far.
Remarkably, the Jays have won their first 7 games this year on the road when scoring 5 runs or more.
During that 9-game road losing streak in May, Toronto couldn’t score more than 3 runs in any of the first 8 losses of that skid! So for the most part the offence was the culprit!
Overall, Toronto is 12-1 this year on the road when scoring 5 runs or more, amazing!
The only loss came May 27 at Baltimore by a 12-10 score when the bullpen let Doc and all of us down by squandering the 8-3 lead The Ace had left as a gift!
I hope to have time later today to analyze what those other 3 teams have done in similar nights with similar offensive production but the most important thing is that this bunch of numbers is yet another proof of the fact that the Jays have their fate in their own hands.
by Marco1978 on Jun 23, 2009 5:46 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
However, Toronto has scored 5 runs or more..........
………..in just 13 of their first 37 road games, mostly because of that long May losing skid!
So yes my first post tells us a story in which when they click offensively, in particular away from home, things seem to go well thus far. Yet, on the whole, they have done that much not too often when away from home.
Moreover, the most critical issue is being just 23-21 this year against teams with a record under .500. Well, the Reds are at .500 so which way will we go? Tricky series……
I have just read a surprising piece of news.........
……….that attendance at Rogers Centre is down 23% compared to last year, ouch! Did they raise the prices? I don’t think they are so foolish given the economic climate.
Wow
It says: in 2008, the average attendance at home for Jays’ games was 29.600 people but in 2009, it’s 22.700 people thus far. Meaning almost 7.000 fewer people. When I went to a game in April 2001, the highest price was 35 Canadian bucks which isn’t even 22 euros this day! You can barely go to a football game in Italy during the national championship. In several respects, Canada can be cheaper than Western Europe………
yeah
baseball is cheaper in Canada than football is in Italy but there are a lot of reasons that you can’t really compare the two. at the very least you’d have to look at hockey and compare it to Italian football.
As for the attendance, I think attendance is down league-wide, but the Jays are suffering more than most from the drop. Some have suggested it has to do with a change in attendance policies (either counting only paid admissions or giving away less tickets), and some have suggested it stems from the weak job the Jays did promoting the team this offseason. I think both of those things, combined with the economic climate, and the hangover from what was, for many fans, a disappointing season last year, are responsible for the significant drop in attendance. Don’t forget the Jays didn’t add any major pieces at all in the offseason and Toronto fans are used to big name acquisitions.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
attendance wanes
I am guessing that the decline in manufacturing, which hits southern Ontario, has had a big impact on Jays’ attendance
the other issue, I am wondering, is this … I think the 2008 figure is a full year measure of attendance while the 2009 data is just on a year-to-date basis — i think this is apples to oranges comparison for 2 reasons
first – AL East rivals draw greater attendance at Rogers and so far, the Jays have only hosted Yanks and Sox once — after these guys come to town, Jays’ attendance should get a boost
second – I am inclined to think that Jays’ attendance is somewhat seasonal so that more folks come out as the summer heats up. This year has been particularly cold and overcast, so as weather improves so should attendance
If these are true, I would expect that the Jays attendance will be down this year, due to declines in manufacturing sector and adverse impact on ON economy. However, as more AL East rivals come to town and weather heats up, rising attendance should slowly chip away at the decline so that by end of season, Jays’ attendance drop will be much smaller than down 23% YoY.
by aagoodfella on Jun 23, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Last year, the Jays padded their attendance figures...
And this year they are not. I thought I heard that the actual bums in the seats figure is up slightly this year, although I could be mistaken about that.
Great point, hugo
I agree with you about the lack of acquisitions. I also agree that baseball in Canada is cheaper and I believe hockey is as well, when compared to the mostly ridiculous prices of football in Italy.
Toronto must publicize the Jays well. Since the Maple Leafs don’t show any sign to be able to win the Cup, the Jays are the city’s best hope for a major win. PS: Hugo, I hope nobody dear to you was involved in that horrific metro accident. I’m a bit worried when I take it myself here in Rome. Without proper communication, it could happen anywhere.
thanks, Marco
I think if the Jays show they can contend, people will come out to watch the team. The team hasn’t made the playoffs since the internet and between that and the 94 strike Torontoans have lost interest, but it’s a city that can support the Jays really well if they show they can contend. Last year’s team was good enough, but just didn’t start winning until late in the season.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
aagoodfella, I believe you are right
……..about the differences between those two attendance numbers (2008 and 2009). If I was lucky enough to live in Toronto (I consider it a safer city than Rome), I would try to go to all night games and all weekend games, at the very least. If the summer really means that more people turn on than in the winter, well I’m pretty surprised since the stadium is so beautiful, as far as I am concerned.
hugo, maybe 90 wins won't even be enough this year.........
………….to make the postseason so any fan support for the Jays in Toronto is important.
judging by past years
it won’t be enough
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
A .574 winning percentage equals 93 wins.........
…………..maybe that will be enough but didn’t Boston get 95 and finish second to the Rays by two games?
they made the playoffs
which is all that matters
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
No question
Of course. I would gladly take the wild card this year and face Boston in the first round. If we put it all together on the good days, I think we can give them all they can handle, hugo.
could attendance be down also because more times dome is closed?
i don’t have stats here, but hasnt the dome been closed more this year? it’s a much more pleasurable experience attending with the roof open
yeah
it’s actually quite a nice stadium with the dome open, not so much with it closed.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I dont mind it when it is closed.
Obviously it is preferred to have it open, but I like the security of getting a ticket and knowing with 100% certainty that there is going to be a game played
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
but you can go no matter what
and know with 100% certainty there is going to be a game played because they can just close it…
Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog
No... that is not what I meant.
I just mean its nice having the Dome because of the certainty. The game is obviously better with the roof open and like I said it is preferred. I just don’t mind having a Dome for a stadium as much as some do I guess.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
oh, I get it
yes, I totally agree. even though I’m lucky enough for going to a Jays game to not be a huge deal, I really love going down on a cloudy crappy day knowing it’s a “great day for baseball” in Toronto. Man… I would be so upset for some of you guys if you trekked to Toronto to see a rained out game.
Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog
open or close
personally, I like the dome closed … i think the ceiling looks cool. However, when it is closed, it can get uncomfortable with a large crowd. When Burnett and the Yanks came to town earlier this year, there were 44k on hand and the roof closed. By the end of the game, it was starting to get a little stuffy. Of course, folks were all steaming angry at Burnett.
At night when the roof is open and the CN tower is lit up, Rogers center has to be the coolest place to see a ballgame in the league … no doubt.
alright
We have a great offensive streak going in the last three games (all wins), and now we have the question of tomorrow – if we score more than 5 tomorrow –
That would be the first time this year we would have scored 5+ runs in more than 3 games in a row (see above figure).
Will we do it?
Go Jays!
Good point
The Jays haven’t done it for four straight games this year, so far. Let’s hope for the best!
if we do
i predict a sweep, if not – a loss :(
jays have a new streak going!
5 games in a row that we have scored 5+, we’ve won 4 of those.
Everyone has chipped in to make it happen.
Also credit due to the lineup change that Cito made.
I like Rios batting 7th, this may be the way to go for the next little while!
go jays!
i was thinking exactly that during the game
but really? Rios batting 7th… behind KEVIN MILLAR?
numbers-wise, i don’t care if Rios bats 7th… but really, only if it’s because Cito is moving up Overbay
Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog
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