The Free Agent Year

by epoxypatch on Jun 25, 2009 11:21 AM EDT Comment 21 comments

I'm sure we've noticed it - guys playing over and above their historical stats during the year in which they become eligible for free agency so that they can go out and command a big contract. The question is how common is it, or is it a statistical anamoly so it gets noticed more easily (e.g. Scutaro, J.Bay, V.Martinez this year). I don't know where to find the stats, so hoping some of the others can chip in.

And how does the number of free agents-to-be on your team affect the success of the team that year? For eg. how many free agents-to-be were on our 92,93 champion teams? And the last few years?

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there's a fine chapter answering your question

in Dayn Perry’s book Baseball Between the Numbers (which is a good book by the way) He concludes that players do play better in their walk years, even accounting for things like age.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 25, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

just to be clear

Dayn Perry didn’t write all of Baseball Between the Numbers (it’s a compilation of articles put together by Baseball Prospectus), just the chapter to which I’m referring.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 25, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nice chapter

so looks like its true! Now where to find the stats on how the number of ‘walkers’ on a team affects its success?

by epoxypatch on Jun 25, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if this is the case then why don’t we build free agent-to-be teams only? That would make sense…

by epoxypatch on Jun 25, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except that is putting a lot of eggs in one basket.

Just because the odds say that a player does a little better in contract years doesn’t mean it is always true (See a lefty pitching against a lefty or someone historically batter well against someone) remember this is a sport where failing 7 out of 10 times at the plate can get you into the hall of fame.

People don’t build free agent to be teams because it is better to build a solid foundation for your franchise.

Not too mention most FA’s are a bit older and then come with an increased chance of injury.

Snider and Lind and Hill weren’t set to become FA’s until a couple of years, but I would still want them on my team.

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jun 25, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

I think you may have misinterpreted the findings, epoxy. No one, to my knowledge, has found that guys in walk year play better than other players in non-walk years. They found that guys in walk years play better than they have in other seasons. So you might get a few career years (and maybe a little more bang for your buck) if you built a team of lots of guys in their walk years, but you wouldn’t necessarily have the best players, which is obviously more important. Even if it were possible to construct a team of lots of free-agents to be, it wouldn’t be a good idea. The team you want is the one with the best players you can get, not less-good players just because they happen to be in walk years.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 25, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Not every walk year guy will have the same bump in performance. The Beltre example is a lesson in the extreme although not that unfamiliar to the average fan (AJ anyone?), but I’m sure that there are a number of them who match their expected performance or even go below it.

(FWIW, not that I think that Doc is the type of player to need the motivation, but image the level of awesomeness he would attain next year if he has the same bump in performance)

I think the key lesson is to account for any bump in determining the expected level of performance over the life of the contract and base your decision on offering a contract on that.

by siggian on Jun 25, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm true

regardless, i’d love to see the stats on number of walk players on championship teams vs non-championship teams

by epoxypatch on Jun 25, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would be pretty tough to have a team of guys in their walk year

If you presume that the team is somewhere near it’s payroll ceiling, the next season it would be hard to resign many of those players. Would be hard to keep a team near the top of the league, losing a bunch of guys. And it would be hard to arrange to have guys having their walk year the same season. If you insist on having free agents sign one year contracts so they are in their walk year, you won’t sign many.

But to look at last year:

Phillies had 4 guys that were in their walk year, Pat Burrell, Tom Gordon, Jamie Moyer and Rudy Seanez. The Rays had Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd, Jonny Gomes, Eric Hinske and Trever Miller. I’m not sure that any of those really had career years.

Jays had Burnett, John Parrish, Wilkerson and Gregg Zaun. Only Burnett had a good year out of that group. Team defense, and run support made it look like a career season for Burnett.

by Tom Dakers on Jun 25, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you had a team full of walk year guys

The ones that play regularly would probably be happy enough, but the ones that are not playing regularly would definitely not be happy. You could end up with a sour atmosphere in a hurry.

by siggian on Jun 25, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i learned a lot from that book

only problem is those books make me prone to arguing everything anyone says…

Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog

by boo15749 on Jun 25, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hear that...

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 25, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as a manager, it is subjective

it is a tough call. I think if you are a pro manager, you should look carefully when evaluating a free agent candidate. If you are skeptical that the roster player’s numbers will not be sustained post-contract, than you should trade the player and get something of value.

One of the worst FA signings, IMHO, was Shaun Alexander. I had him on my team in Fantasy Football. He had great stats but he was boom or bust. When he scored, typically against weak defenses, he would rack up lots of points, but good D’s could keep him in line. This pattern, IMHO, is evident in Adam Dunn’s history which is why I have railed against him so greatly. Anyhow, we all know the history, Alexander got a big contract and than never lived up to expectations.

Last year the Jays let Burnett go. This was probably a good move. Now Burnett is a very good pitcher surely, but he was, IMHO, clearly playing for a new contract. This year, Burnett’s numbers are generally down, and I expect will continue to slide during his tenure as a Yank — call me skeptical.

Jays have two key FAs this year, including Barajas and Scutaro. So, Jays mgmt have to decide if they are keepers.

Barajas I think has shown himself to be a capable and very stable asset both behind and at the plate. I would consider his numbers “believable” and if the Jays could sign him at a rate in-line with his production, they should do so.

Scutaro has generated higher-than-normal production in this contract year. His YTD avg is about 30 points higher than career, OBP 60 points higher, slugging 50 points higher and OPS 110 points higher. I think there are three factors at play here including (1) contract year (2) maturation as a player and (3) first time as an every day starter vs. utility role. So that said, Scutaro could probably be expected, IMHO, to generate lower numbers in future years than in 2009, but higher numbers than his prior cume career numbers. So, if the Jays could sign Vespa at a rate in-line with production say halfway between what he does in 2009 and what he had done through rest of cume career, IMHO, the Jays should do so.

Tough to say fer sure though. If JP had a crystal ball and could tell fer sure, the Jays could win the Series every year. Sweet.

by aagoodfella on Jun 25, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

An important consideration is length of contract...

As much as the amount. I’m pretty sure that Vespa could not sustain those hitting numbers (even reduced a bit) or his defence at SS over 6 years. I’d say the same for Barajas except that he is likely to decline faster than Scutaro.

Heck, I’m just really enjoying how this team is playing (though Wells and Rios at bat still drives me crazy) and I’d love to have Golden Rod and Vespa back next year

by siggian on Jun 25, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also there is an issue of who is waiting in the minors.

it will be some time before jackson is ready, but arencibia should be in the majors before too long.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jun 25, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

he’s having a pretty poor season in a hitters’ paradise

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 25, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, by not too long

i meant hopefully around the beginning of 2011.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jun 27, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea ... Jays need Rod around for a couple more years

i think

by aagoodfella on Jun 28, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

arencibia's numbers

look bloody awful at this point … i m starting to think he is a bust … i would rather have Thigpen back — kind of, maybe

by aagoodfella on Jun 25, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

way too early to give up on Arencibia

but he needs to show he can make the necessary adjustments and not just count on what has worked for him at lower levels

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 25, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

right

he’s barely 23, and last year’s numbers were fantastic (900+ OPS is awesome for a C) so hopefully he can pick it up, and keep in mind that catchers’ numbers are often lower than a star at another position (1B, LF etc)… so let’s not give up for at least a couple of years.

Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog

by boo15749 on Jun 26, 2009 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs