One We Should Have Won

by Tom Dakers on Jun 28, 2009 7:12 PM EDT Comment 18 comments

Toronto Blue Jays' John McDonald, bottom, collides with Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Pedro Feliz, top, while being tagged out in a rundown during the bottom of the ninth inning of interleague baseball game action in Toronto on Sunday, June 28, 2009. The Phillies won 5-4. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

More photos » Darren Calabrese - AP

7 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays' John McDonald, bottom, collides with Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Pedro Feliz, top, while being tagged out in a rundown during the bottom of the ninth inning of interleague baseball game action in Toronto on Sunday, June 28, 2009. The Phillies won 5-4. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

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Phillies 5 Blue Jays 4

We should have won this one. We scored 4 runs in the first 3 innings then just stopped scoring. Aaron Hill homered his first two times up. Jose Bautista hit a two run shot in the 2nd and that was it for scoring. I hate losing to Jamie Moyer, but then I guess we aren't alone in losing to him, Moyer just past Bob Gibson in career wins. Can you imagine, Jamie Moyer has more career wins than Bob Gibson.

We only had 7 hits on the day, two each for Hill, Scott Rolen, Raul Chavez and the homer for Bautista. Everyone else had 0 fors, though Lyle Overbay took 2 walks. And when we had a shot a tying the game in the bottom John McDonald was picked off 2nd base. A cardinal sin when you are the tying run and you were already in scoring position.

Brian Tallet pitched 5 really good innings and 1 really bad one. He gave up 4 runs in the 4th. That wasn't good but we still should have won it. Vernon Wells helped keep it a 1 run game by making as nice a catch as you are every going to see to end the 6th inning. It might be just me, but it seems like Vernon's range has improved lately. Brandon League, Jeremy Accardo and Jason Frasor each pitched a scoreless inning.

Anyway Jays of the Day are Bautista (.116 WPA) and Rolen (.101). Amazingly enough, even with 2 homers, Hill ended up with a negative WPS (-.072), but I'd still give him a honorable mention along with Chavez.Suckage Jays are Wells (-.217), Adams (-.199 in one pinch hit at bat), Scoot (-.148), Rios (-.148) and Tallet (-.193). And I guess we ought to add John McDonald to the suckage list for getting picked off 2nd in the bottom of the 9th.

Tomorrow Roy Halladay (yay) goes for the Jays against the Rays and Jeff Niemann (6-4, 4.23). It's the first time we play the Rays this year.

Also tomorrow Rod Barajas is going to test his hamstring to see if he should or shouldn't go on the DL.

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Suckage Jays

Actually, it looks like Fangraphs mis-credited McDonald’s out to Scoot. I think their WPA numbers should really be McDonald (-.240) and Scutaro (+.092).

It’s not the first time they’ve mixed up baserunning errors like that. Kind of annoying.

by Patrick_M on Jun 28, 2009 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

oh ok....that makes more sense....

Should have figured that.

by Tom Dakers on Jun 28, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I noticed Tallet finished with 6 walks. Thats about 3 walks more than he should be issuing (and 6 more than I’d like to see any pitcher issue). The Jays inability to beat teams like Washington and Florida is coming back to bite them in the ass, now the Rays are ahead of them after sweeping Florida. Funny how every other team in the AL East could beat Florida except the Jays…The Jays have to win 2 out of 3 against the Rays just to pull even with them, and we all know how much the Jays like to lose against TB. How many other divisions in baseball can a team be 5 or 6 games above .500 and be sitting in 4th place? None that I know of…silly Rays, why’d they suddenly have to go and get good the last two years?

by Icedragon on Jun 28, 2009 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

we might be in for a TB whippin’ the way we’ve been playing lately

by epoxypatch on Jun 28, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And now is when the real fun begins...

Oh I just realized too, this starts a string of series’ against AL east opponents. I think this stretch is going to go a long way to deciding if the Jays have any shot.

by Icedragon on Jun 28, 2009 7:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And

That was always gonna be the case. Regardless if they still had the lead these series were going to be the deciding moment of the season.

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jun 28, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know I sound like a broken record(cd)...

but with Aaron Hill looking like he will hit about 30 homers this year, would you drop him to the 3 spot in the order, and put someone in the 2nd position who can get on base, perhaps…..Overbay? Hill hits two solo hrs today. Overbay had two walks. Why not put two guys with .400 OBP in front of him and let him win the games himself occasionally.

by Chesapeake Ron on Jun 28, 2009 8:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

actually

the 3 spot is, statistically, the best spot to put a player with high SLG (ideally) and low OBP, so Hill or maybe Barajas should be stuck there. The reason is that the player in the 3 hole has the lowest likelihood of leading off an inning, so their OBP is less important than SLG

Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog

by boo15749 on Jun 28, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

McDonald's baserunning

Now I like Johnny Mac as much as the next guy. His defense is above average and he is, I’m sure, a likeable clubhouse guy. But his baserunning is not very good. If he is your pinch runner, that’s a problem IMO.

I know a lot of people might disagree with me, but I recall several occasions where McDonald made crucial baserunning mistakes last year. Given the amount of baserunning opportunities he’s had compared to Rios, I’d wager to say that he’s made more mistakes per opportunity than Rios – for different reasons obviously. I think McDonald tries to be to aggressive at times (although I believe in this instance I did read that he was given the steal sign).

by REMO on Jun 28, 2009 8:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m a bit confused about pinch running for Chavez anyway. Say the Jays did tie it, who would they bring in as catcher in the 10th? Is Barajas good enough to catch right now? I guess McDonald has a bit of experience catching, so maybe thats what Cito figured would work?

by Icedragon on Jun 28, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They said Barajas was available to catch in a pinch if needed

But only on a sparse basis.

And failing that McDonald is the team’s backup backup catcher.

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jun 28, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought Johnny Mac was playin’ some catch in the Bullpen..

by Outz on Jun 29, 2009 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't agree

that tallet pitched well except for that big inning
he was in trouble throughout – just that inning he got burnt

by epoxypatch on Jun 28, 2009 10:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yikes ... this is at least (i think) the second time this title has been used this year

let’s hope “One We Should Have One” or derivative thereof does not have to be employed again

by aagoodfella on Jun 29, 2009 7:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

too early to post – should obviously have read “One We Should Have Won” — apparently I generate typos like Jays generate base running errors …. zing

by aagoodfella on Jun 29, 2009 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heh

You also forgot to capitalize “let’s” and should have put an “s” on “derivatives.” Boy, did you ever butcher that!

Now just wait.. I’ll have made a mistake somewhere here.

PS – Anyone else find themselves cheering just a little for Mariano Rivera last night? I was watching from about the middle of the 8th onward and got to see Bruney leave with 2 on and 2 out with Mo coming in. Parts of me were cheering for Mariano to get his 500th save (that would be the part that has him on his fantasy team and the other part that likes milestones). But who would have known that he can handle a bat as well? 3rd career PA, gets a 7-pitch RBI walk against K-Rod? Wow, decent showing there. Probably didn’t hurt that K-Rod was trying to nibble and finesse the corners for his first 2 pitches (and missing), but he still fouled off a good 2-2 pitch and had a good eye on the next two pitches.

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby

by wroth91 on Jun 29, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was not

I was cheering against Mariano as much as I cheer for the Jays. I hate the Yankees so much and I hate the Mets almost even more for being such choke artists against the Yanks. I’m not just a Jays fan, I like lots of other teams and players but I will not in any circumstances ever cheer for the Yankees.

Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.

by craig in calgary on Jun 29, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs