A lost opportunity yesterday?

by Kurupt on Jun 29, 2009 3:10 PM EDT Comment 22 comments

"Pretty tough to ask a guy who has already hit two homers to bunt," Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston told reporters.

When you are down a run with runners on 1st and 2nd, and nobody out, isn't this a no-brainer to bunt? I know Aaron Hill had homered twice, but the team needed one run, not three. I don't see many games, well actually just four this year, but I am beginning to understand why so many of you get frustrated with Gaston. I don't know if he overthinks, or doesn't think, but I'd have to say that that was a pretty bad decision, even though it was Hill up. Move the runner to 2nd and 3rd and a base hit wins it, or you tie it on a fly ball or slow grounder. Seems like an easy decision to me.

What does everyone think of this? Bad decision, or terrible decision?

(Apologize if this was discussed in another topic, haven't read them all yet today)

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I dunno

You never ask your best hitters to bunt

And Hill really is our best hitter.

Can you imagine Longoria being asked to bunt? A-Rod? Youk? Never happens. No sense in giving up an out as really what you want is runner in scoring position with your best hitter up to bat which we had in that situation.

Plus Scoot was on first and he runs pretty well too.

I can see the argument for having him bunt, I just wouldn’t have had him do it if I was Cito.

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jun 29, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

interesting question

we actually needed 2 runs, but just one in the 9th to keep the game going.

I could go either way with the bunt in that situation. With the force on at third it would have had to have been a good bunt. Arguably it would have given the team a slightly better chance of scoring the tying run (though less chance of scoring the winning run).

The flipside to the argument is that Aaron Hill is one of the Jays’ best hitters this season (and, though it probably doesn’t mean much, certainly that particular game). With the tying run in scoring position and one of your best hitters at the plate, isn’t that the situation you want? Why take the bat out of his hands?

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 29, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that said

I agree with you that Cito’s reasoning was suspect. If Mac is at the plate, I don’t care whether he’s had two home runs that game (if this happened I’m assuming it would be the first time ever), I’d tell him to lay it down, clown.

n.b. I’m not calling Mac a clown, it’s a Replacements reference

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 29, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is an interesting debate

Using hindsight, seems like a no-brainer. Bunt the runners over and let VW and Rolen hit them in. Without using hindsight, I think you get Hill to swing the bat. He’s our best hitter and Lidge has been struggling this year.

Also I don’t mean to beat a dead horse, but I’m not confident that with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out that Vernon drives in the tying run anyways.

Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.

by craig in calgary on Jun 29, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Aaron Hill

How is he not a “no-brainer” for the starting 2nd baseman in the Allstar game?
Anywhere you read, Ian Kinsler is pencilled in but Hill leads him in all major categories except for stolen bases.
This pisses me off to no end.

I’m not talking about the fan voting, read around the various blogs on SB Nation. Hill is anywhere between the 2nd and 5th best second baseman in the AL. What a joke. If he was a yankee, he’d be leading the nation in voting.

Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.

by craig in calgary on Jun 29, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hill wOBA: .369
Kinsler : .380
Pedroia .337
Cano: .347

Hill OPS+: 123
Kinsler: 124
Pedroia: 92
Cano: 111

I do think Hill’s defense is better, though UZR disagrees. the bottom line is that Kinsler and Hill are darn close – both are having great offensive seasons, with Kinsler taking advantage of a better park to hit in but certainly not hitting any worse. Kinsler used to be a subpar defender, but it seems like he’s not anymore. I could see the case made for either one. The real injustice would be if Pedroia or Cano were selected over either one.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 29, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that said

of course, on my ballot, I don’t think I even paused before selecting Hill

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 29, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's that stupid wOBA stat again

I told you, Keep that nonsense out of here!

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jun 29, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha

a primer for the uninitiated: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-joy-of-woba/

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 29, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only wOBA I'm interested in is the Western Ontario Lawn Bowlers Association

Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.

by craig in calgary on Jun 29, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we call it bocce

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 29, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

that was hilarious

Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog

by boo15749 on Jun 30, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And now you want me to read!?

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jun 29, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok I read it…. maybe Im too distracted at the moment with one of my girls being upset… but I’m not quite sure I understand the calculation.

Hugo you will have to break it down for me.

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jun 29, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know how Slugging is like Batting Average

only with each kind of hit multiplied by how many bases it’s worth? wOBA is like OBP, but with each kind of reaching base multiplied by how many runs it’s worth on average. Then they scale it so that league average wOBA is league average OBP.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Jun 29, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm maybe I need a more visual explanation

If I had the breakdown for a players calculation I might be able to understand it better.

Sorry guys, I swear Im good with Numbers usually but Im not getting this at first glance.

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jun 29, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm, it's not as complicated as you might think.

It assigns a run-value to each at bat, different systems assign different values, but here is one:

BB = 0.72 r
1B = 0.90 r
2B = 1.24 r
3B = 1.56 r
HR = 1.95 r

So if Slugging% is calculated as ((1*1B) + (2*2B) + (3*3B) + (4*HR)) / AB
Then wOBA is calculated as ((0.72*BB) + (0.90*1B) + (1.24*2B) + (1.56*3B) + (1.95*HR)) / PA

Dig it?

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jun 30, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So it doesn't take score, men on base, amount of outs etc into play?

A single is a single is a single?

A single with 2 outs in the 4th inning of a 10-2 game is vastly different than a single in the bottom of the 9th with runners on base, 2 outs and a team down by 1.

Thats why I am a Bill Parcels man. “You are what your record is”

Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.

by craig in calgary on Jun 30, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't control what situation you're batting in

and to bring it back to football, that’s like saying Larry Brown was a better player than Dan Marino, because he Neil O’Donnell threw two passes directly to him during the biggest game of the season.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jun 30, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, but Larry got paid!

Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.

by craig in calgary on Jun 30, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the strength of wOBA

is that it is a powerhouse one stop shop – that is, one stat that tells you a heck of a lot of what you need to know (though not everything) about a player’s offensive prowess.

what you’re talking about is essentially WPA, which is what we use for the Jay of the Day, a good measure of a player’s past value to a team, but not a good indicator of their overall talent like wOBA and not a good predictor of future performance.

Since baseball is a team sport, “you are what your record is” doesn’t really apply to individual performance (Parcells was using it to discuss team performance). Unless you’re talking about a win-loss record for a pitcher. In which case pitchers are definitely NOT always what their win-loss record is. Again, team sport.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 30, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree about the lost opportunity

After a horrible loss Saturday, on Sunday it was a crucial game so an unconventional measure like trying to get just a bunt or something similar from Aaron Hill makes sense. However, it isn’t a usual call to make your best offensive player bunt or not. Most of the time you wouldn’t do it. I would have done it this time since it was with nobody out and we had two good hitters coming up. After all, with men on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out, just a sac fly from Wells would have been good. He wouldn’t have been up with the imperative of hitting for the fences. Plus, Scott Rolen is doing well so yes, I would have tried that! Let’s just hope the Jays won’t be playing bocce in October this year, it’s a bit boring……….

by Marco1978 on Jun 30, 2009 5:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs