We Have the Facts and We're Voting Yes: Ruminations on Sliding into the All-Star Break
by hugo on Jul 14, 2009 5:25 PM EDT
in Analysis
144 comments
After the Jays' 6-1 trouncing of the Philadelphia Phillies on June 26, less than 3 weeks ago, the Jays sat at 41-34, tied for the wild card. Much more significantly, the Jays had the third-best run differential in the American League, and 4th best in all of baseball. Yep, that's right, less than 3 weeks ago the Jays were the 4th-best team in baseball. And that is all after the Jays' 9-game losing streak.
Since that game, of course, the Jays have been awful, going 3-12, worst in the AL. All the Jays' competitors have had winning records since then (often at the Jays' expense), with the Yankees leading the way at 10-5.
So, you already know that all this "throw in the towel" stuff is based on less than three bad weeks - 15 games in fact. If the Jays were still tied for the wild card, or close, we wouldn't be talking about throwing in the towel. But here's what you might not know: other than a 10-0 trouncing to the Phillies on June 27th and two weak-tea 4-1 losses to Tampa Bay, every one of those losses has been by 1 or 2 runs. Since the Jays began their road trip, a bleak 2-8 affair against three AL East teams, every single loss has been by 1 or 2 runs. The Jays have lost in a lot of different ways over those past 10 games, but one thing remains in common - play those games again and a different outcome in several of them is likely. Now, of course, you have to win those games - that's what separates a good team from a mediocre one. But the Jays aren't a .200 team (past road trip) or a .350 (since June 26th) team and have lost a lot more of them than they likely will as the season progresses.
Now, I am not arguing that the Jays are going to come back and win the division this season. That's not likely, though certainly not impossible - they have simply lost too many games (and too many pitchers), and the strength of the competition is too great. Nor do I think they will necessarily make the playoffs. But the truth is, the past few weeks have been more a rash of bad luck than anything else. The team's pythagorean record, still 4 games over .500, shows that. The Jays haven't been playing well recently, but they haven't been playing as poorly as their record over that time would have you believe. And, in truth, we're talking about a few bad weeks after a mostly excellent first half.
The Jays have a pretty decent team and they should continue to play entertaining baseball and win games from here on out. The young pitchers like Ricky Romeo and Brett Cecil have shown a lot and young hitters Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are having excellent seasons at the plate. Shaun Marcum may be back soon, and Travis Snider is hitting well at AAA and could be called up in the next few weeks. Roy Halladay could well stick around and he's reason enough to watch - if not, you don't want to miss his last starts as a Jay. Stick around, it should be a fun second half.
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Looking forward to an exciting second half
I’m looking forward to seeing more of the Jays young pitchers.
However, in reference to the 1 run losses, etc., it sounds like an awfully familiar tune. Bottom line is that it’s still a loss, and it’s 2 runs away from a victory. Is there a difference between a pitcher with a 3.00 and 5.00 ERA? That’s 2 runs.
Still though. Great team to watch, and root for in my opinion.
But the pitcher with a 5 ERA can beat the pitcher with the 3 ERA 4 out of 5 times
if pitcher 3 allows exactly 3 runs every 9 innings and pitcher 5 allows 2 runs per 9 innings in 4 starts and 17 runs in the 5th start. Now who’s the better pitcher?
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
The point is bad teams lose by a lot.....
If the Jays were truly a .320 team they would lose by several runs most games, like the Nationals do. Sort of like great teams win by a lot.
Bold predictions.
- Jays go 42-30 in the official 2nd half. Don’t make the playoffs but play good ball.
- Doc isn’t traded, and regains early season form while cruising to a 23-6 record and 2nd Cy Young
- Shaun Marcum returns early August and has a few rocky starts, but a dominant 4-0 September
- RR Cool Jay easily wins Rookie of the Year
- Travis Snider returns to the big club after allstar brake and shows flashes of brilliance, and flashes of being a rookie (Lots of HR’s Lots of K’s)
- Scott Rolen wins gold glove at 3rd and signs a lifetime contract extension during offseason
- Aaron hits a bit of a wall, but still has a good year. 30 HR’s and 100 RBI’s while batting .275
- Adam Lind hits wall, but crashes right through it and has huge year. 40 HRs 120 RBI’s, batting .320
- Tallet returns to the bullpen, instantly righting what once went wrong.
- By September, Jays once again have best rotation in the bigs. Doc, RR, Cecil, Zep and Marcum.
World series 2010
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions
not to rain on your parade
but I think Cecil and Rzep will be shet down by September.
I hope so for Cecil
only based on his innings, I think he may need to be shut down at some point. As for Rzep, I liked him more before seeing his start in Baltimore live. The results were good and his pitches had great movement, but his mechanics seemed a bit off, particularly his arm slot, which seemed a little low and inconsistent from inning to inning.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
he had that one especially rough inning
But I couldn’t tell if that was him trying to readjust to the new strike zone
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
maybe i missed it during my "hiatus"
but i LOVE RR Cool Jay
Prehistoric Hoops - a neat little Raps blog
he's a tremendous live blogger
I definitely encourage folks to check it out!
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
and i'm a tremendous poser of questions
on live blogs. (not to brag or anything, but it’s true – did you catch the Hentgen question?)
haha
great job. you forgot to mention you are also a blog commenter extraordinaire, I’ve appreciated your comments on batters box for years
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
aw shucks
now i’ve been sussed…damn usernames.
Wow,
Didn’t think Obama would wear a White Sox jacket in St Louis, one would think he would of just wore an all-star jersey.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Heh Me too,
But hats off to Obama to do that, I imagine he had publicists and handlers whispering in his ear to not do it.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Can anyone imagine Harper dropping the puck at a hockey game or something? I just can’t see it.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Well there you go. Didn’t know that, makes sense though I forgot that he was from out west.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Wow the announcers have no idea what they are talking about
Chone Figgins was on the field during introductions… and they are talking about how he should be here but they aren’t sure…..
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
thanks tom
will do part2 tomorrow afternoon or evening
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Was part of why I separated it into two parts, haha
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Nice
I will always love that play where he stole second and then ran back to first and then stole second again
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Yep
Pujols hit it hard but kept it on the ground. Three grounders for Doc . . . is he back?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
starters usually go 3 innings in All Star Games don't they?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Maddon Sabotage
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
I'm not so sure you will
not for the next season or so, at least
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
So is this going to count as Doc's off-day throwing session
And then start Thursday?
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:20 PM EDT reply actions
Hmmm I haven’t heard anything about post break Jays rotation
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
Even if it doesn't lead off the 2nd half, I expect he'll get into the Boston series no matter what
The Jays can’t leave shots at division rivals to the young guys just yet – not when Doc is available.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
Lucky Hit
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
That one wasn't
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
x2
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
been a few hard-hit balls as well, though
just want to see doc finish up the inning here
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
doc's up
generally he looks up in the zone. he’s throwing 94-95 mph on the sinkers though.
Yeeeesh
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:25 PM EDT reply actions
Ugh Poor Doc
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
let him work it out here
rather see him get roughed up in the ASG than during the season
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Yep
There is no was he’s as focused today as he normally is
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah not really.
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
-1
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Are Prince and Cecil fielder still not talking?
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:28 PM EDT reply actions
I see Pedro signed with the Phillies
One less suitor for the good doctor
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:37 PM EDT reply actions
I read that signing Pedro wouldn’t preclude them from chasing Doc.
Anywhos Im out, Later folks!
'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.
See ya when the games matter!
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Why am I so mad?
I am so furious at that two-out rally. Why do I care? Cuz Doc is on the hook for the loss? I don’t know. Wright’s bloop, the error… you would think this was a world Series game I’m so mad. I just wanted two perfect innings. And Doc was ignored by Fox cuz Obama was in the booth, and the mic cut out during his interview. I hate Fox… really, really hate them
Don't worry
Final score will be 17-13
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Jason Bay traded to Minnesota for prospects.
Bay and Morneau traded to the Jay’s for Halladay.
A girl can dream?
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:42 PM EDT reply actions
Haha. I am
My girlfriend thinks Morneau is cute
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Warning
One more comment like that and you will be banned ;-)
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Hugo wouldn't like that....
at some point though we are going to recruit Moderators for the game threads, so someone can boot me
2 out rally?!?
Happiness is a long walk with a putter in your hand.
by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2009 9:44 PM EDT reply actions
Eh, it would have bothered me for some reason. I’m pretty irrational when it comes to Halladay. Not sure why.
If you remember
I was rationally rooting against Millar
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Was the first thing I thought of
that didn’t use the c-word
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Wish Cito wouldn't use the
M-word when he makes out his lineup card.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Mstrike out with a runner on second and none out?
The M is silent.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
He's sucked at AAA
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
saw an Edo at Baltimore's Inner Harbor last weekend
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
EDO IS GOD
Though the fact that their sumo-sized double-meat chicken and beef stirfry with 4 scoops of sauce is like 1.8 bajillion calories is somewhat of a concern. Even more of a concern is that the Edo in the student’s union building knew me on sight and would order that up before I even asked for it. I stopped eating there shortly after and started going to Subway, lol.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
she wasn't as fat as Kate Smith
but that doesn’t mean it was any better.
in related news: http://prawfsblawg.blogs.com/prawfsblawg/2009/07/yankee-stadium-god-bless-america-lawsuit-settles.html
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
really?
Not the greatest showing by our All-Stars tonight. Hill’s 0-fer and Doc’s 13+ ERA. Good thing this one didn’t count… but honestly congrats just for making it guys.
I think the ERA is wrong
Should be 9.00. Since he committed an error on covering the wrong base, thus allowing the runner to score after being hit by the throw. At least that’s what the FOX announcers were saying. I still contend that throw should have been to 2nd anyways for runners on 1st and 3rd instead of runners onf 2nd and 3rd (with the score on the deflection being negated if it goes to 2nd).
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
Yeah Doc's ERA for the game is 9.00
And the error was against Hamilton for the throw. They don’t give an error for a play covering the wrong base, he’s just backing up in case of error.
Ok, that makes way more sense. I was a little bit surprised when the announcers seemed to imply the error was on doc for covering the wrong base. Didn’t have the time to look up the box score when I wrote that last night, thanks for the correction.
Ps- Tom, my set of tickets arrived in the mail yesterday! Yay!
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
by wroth91 on Jul 15, 2009 2:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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