A preview of Friday's game and the series against the Red Sox

Boston will give the ball to Clay Buchholz, Brad Penny and Jon Lester. The first pitched a no-hitter on September 1, 2007 against Baltimore in his second major-league appearance. The hope is that he'll be more like 2008 when he went 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA, losing his last seven decisions before getting sent to Triple-A Pawtucket on August 20. Yet, in 2009 at AAA level he is 7-2 with a 2.36 ERA and just 67 hits allowed in 99 innings pitched.

There's plenty of reasons to be cautious about Buchholz. Ricky Romero will face him, showing his 7-3 record. He has an ERA right at 3.00 and a K to BB ratio (2,3 to 1) of 69 to 30. Moreover, Ricky is 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last six starts. The Jays lost 4-3 in 12 innings on 11 July (Ricky's last start, a no-decision) but before that game, he had won four consecutive decisions and Toronto had won Ricky's previous five starts.

In those five starts (five Jays wins by a combined 35-14 score, three wins came on the road) Ricky pitched a total of 37 1/3 innings allowing just 8 runs and 2 homers while walking 13 and striking out 34. In six of his last 8 starts, Ricky has pitched at least 7 innings. The perfect way not to place a big burden on the bullpen. At home, Ricky is 5-1 this year with a 2.31 ERA (39 IP, 28 hits including 5 homers and 10 earned runs allowed with just 16 walks and 35 strikeouts along with a .209 average allowed to his opponents).

Oddly enough, Ricky has issued more walks at home (16) than on the road (14). Toronto is 2-4 this year against Boston. The two wins came at home May 29th and 30th (6-3 and 5-3) but then May 31, Romero made his only start against Boston and we lost 8-2 as he allowed 5 runs in just 4 innings, including homers to Pedroia and Youkilis. By the way, it's unclear if Pedroia will play Friday. He went 20 for 52 (.385) with 9 RBI in his last 11 games but he missed the All-Star Game to be with his pregnant wife. Best wishes to him, of course.

Boston has won 3 straight to open a 3-game lead over New York. The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last six. On the road though, they are 23-20 while at Fenway they are 31-14! On the other hand, Toronto is 3-12 in the last 15 and more awfully, just 4-8 in the last 12 at home. We were leading by 3 1/2 games on May 18 at 27-14 before the Heidi Watney jinx hit us and we lost all 9 games of the road trip that started May 19. Since then, Toronto is 17-32.

The Jays must stop a 2-game losing streak and are 25-18 overall at home but up to June 11, they were a great 21-10 at home. On Saturday, Brian Tallet will face Brad Penny. Tallet (5-6, 4.95) has lost his last 2 decisions, he's 1-3 in his last 4 decisions, the Jays have lost his last 3 starts (always by 2 runs or less, ugh!). Brian's last 3 starts give us shivers just reading the numbers: 15 IP, 25 hits allowed including 2 homers and 16 runs yielded (14 earned) with 12 walks and 13 strikeouts. Overall, he has fanned 78 this year but has allowed 98 hits and issued 51 walks.

Tallet has pitched 29 1/3 innings over his last 6 starts with just one solid 6-inning performance of 3-hit shutout ball at home June 23 in a 7-5 win against the Reds. By taking that one out, he has just 23 1/3 IP in 5 starts with an 0-3 record, with 40 hits (including 3 homers) and 25 runs (23 earned) given up! Since June 9, he's had only two good (or better) starts: one at home against Cincinnati and the June 9 win at Texas (7 innings of 2-hit shutout ball in a 9-0 win). Four times in his last six starts though, Toronto has scored only four or fewer runs. Tallet is 2-2 in his career against Boston (18 games, 3 starts) with a 3.93 ERA but also 18 walks issued in 34 1/3 IP. 

Penny hasn't won since June 17 at home against Florida. He hasn't pitched 7 innings in any of his last 10 starts, he's 6-3 on the year with a 4.71 ERA but 62 Ks and 29 walks. Penny is 0-1 in his last 4 starts, Boston has lost each of his last 3 starts (twice by 1 run). He hasn't won on the road since May 25 in Minneapolis and got a no-decision on May 30 in Toronto when the Jays beat Boston 5-3 (Penny lasted 6 innings, allowing 10 hits - 1 long ball - and 3 runs - two earned - without a walk and with five strikeouts). Penny has 100 career wins and is 3-0 in six lifetime starts against Toronto (3.19 ERA).

On Sunday, the game will be broadcast around the world on ESPN America (hopefully they'll pick up the Toronto broadcast but I am not optimistic on that) as Doc Halladay (10-3, 2.85) will go up against Jon Lester (8-6, 3.87). Well, where to start? Doc has lost two straight starts, arrrgh. Both against the damn Rays. He leads the team in wins, innings pitched (123) and ERA. The team has lost each of his last four starts while scoring only 11 runs in those games, ouch! Lifetime against Boston, Doc is 12-12 with 4 CG, 240 1/3 IP, a 4.46 ERA, opponents hit .271.

Doc hasn't won at home since June 7 when he blanked KC 4-0 going the distance and scattering just 7 hits with 6 strikeouts and without issuing a walk. He threw 97 pitches, 73 for strikes. Then came June 12 and the injury in a home loss to Florida. Then came the first loss to Tampa Bay at home on June 29 by a 4-1 score. After getting a no-decision in our horrible 6-5 loss in 12 innings at Yankee Stadium on July 4, he lost 3-2 at Tropicana Field July 9.

Compared to 2008, if Doc matches entirely his first half he would get in 2009 the same number of wins (20) in 34 starts and he would pitch the same number of innings (246) with two shutouts and likely more strikeouts and fewer walks than last season. A healthy dose of run support for him and a big fan showing on Sunday to clear any doubt about any trade (both in Doc's mind, just in any case, and in the mind of JP "I can trade away a star any time or scare away any potential big acquisition" Ricciardi, well I think it would be a perfect environment for a Sunday.

About Lester: he's won his last three decisions, Boston has won his last four starts by a combined 19-8 score. Over his last four starts Lester has worked 27 2/3 innings yielding just four earned runs and striking out 31! Ugh! He's won his last 3 decisions on the road, including the May 31 game in Toronto when he beat Ricky Romero and Boston won 8-2. On that day, Lester went 6 innings permitting just 3 hits and a run with 3 walks and 12 Ks. Ouch!

Yet, nine of the 13 dingers allowed this year by Lester have come in Boston's road games. Throughout his career, he's given up roughly one hit per inning. In all of 2008, he'd allowed 14 long balls (33 starts, 210 1/3 IP). However, he's fanned 131 this year in 114 innings! Last year, he struck out 152 all season! Lifetime against Toronto, he is 3-2 with a 3.25 ERA and 39 strikeouts compared to 35 hits allowed (just 2 homers) in 44 1/3 innings pitched with a .220 opponents' batting average. It's undoubtedly a crucial series that the Jays must win. Enough said, I believe.

Let me give all us some hope: last season, the Red Sox batted only .229 with 6 HR and 23 RBI in going 3-5 during the ten days following the all-star break. Their average and .652 OPS during that span was 2nd lowest in the AL (only Oakland was worse). Moreover, since 2004, Boston has put up a combined record of 24-25 in the first ten days following the all-star break. Just once in the last five seasons have they put up a record above .500 during those post-break periods (6-4 in 2006).

For example, Youkilis with Boston has a .233 average in the 10 days after the All-Star break. JD Drew has a .185 average, Ellsbury has a .125 average. I'll close this post with something that I didn't know but now that I have read it, I wanted to share this curious record with all of you. Alan Embree on July 7, 2009 won a game for the Rockies without throwing a pitch. Since 2000, that had only happened to one other pitcher. Yes, BJ Ryan....it happened in Baltimore on May 1, 2003. After all, over here May 1 is Labour Day so why not getting a win without even working???